Corn Retreats Ahead of USDA Report

Corn futures fell below $5.10 per bushel, pulling back from an over three-year high of $5.21 hit on September 1, as traders adjusted positions ahead of Friday’s widely anticipated USDA supply-and-demand report. The decline came despite expectations for weaker US yields, which have continued to provide a floor for prices. Commodity brokerage StoneX lowered its estimate of the average US 2026 corn yield to 182.9 bushels per acre from 184.8 in its previous monthly forecast, raising concerns over tighter supplies. Meanwhile, warmer and drier weather across the US Midwest in the coming weeks is expected to limit harvest delays and reduce frost risks, potentially allowing fieldwork to progress quickly. The USDA reported that 5% of the US corn crop had been harvested as of last Friday, while 56% was rated good to excellent. Traders are also watching risks to Black Sea grain exports as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatens to disrupt supplies and tighten global grain markets.

Corn futures traded above $5.10 per bushel, near their highest level in more than three years, as concerns over disruptions to Black Sea grain exports added support ahead of the region’s peak corn export season. The peak export window for Black Sea corn begins in October, raising concerns over global supplies as attacks continue to disrupt shipments from Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine accounts for roughly 10-11% of global corn exports, making prolonged disruptions a potential source of tighter supply. Meanwhile, the latest USDA weekly report showed a net reduction of 829,600 metric tons in US corn sales for the 2025/26 marketing year in the week ended August 27, although accumulated exports reached 85.06 million tons, up from 83.49 million a week earlier. Traders are also monitoring US crop prospects ahead of the harvest and await USDA’s updated crop estimates on September 11.

Corn futures fell below $5.2 per bushel, easing from a three-year high as traders took profits following the recent rally. Still, concerns over US yields and potential export demand continued to support prices. The latest USDA report showed the corn crop holding at 57% good-to-excellent as of August 30, while recent field assessments pointed to mixed and, in some areas, lower-than-expected yields, raising doubts over the size of this year’s harvest. Meanwhile, Chinese officials are reportedly discussing purchases of US agricultural products, including corn, ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting. Global supply concerns also persist, with the EU forecasting its 2026 maize harvest at nearly a 20-year low, while disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments remain a risk to exports. Ahead of the USDA’s weekly export sales report, traders expect US old-crop corn sales of up to 200,000 metric tons and new-crop sales of as much as 1.6 million tons, keeping attention on overseas demand.