Corn futures held below $4.8 per bushel, staying near their lowest level in eight weeks, as expectations of a larger US crop and higher inventories offset the slower harvest pace. In its October outlook, the USDA raised its 2026/27 US corn yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre from 178.5 and projected production at 16.03 billion bushels, while ending stocks were forecast at 1.849 billion bushels. Meanwhile, the Crop Progress report showed 91% of the US corn crop had reached maturity as of October 11, while harvesting stood at 33% complete, six percentage points behind the five-year average. Crop conditions improved by 2 percentage points over the week, with 56% of the crop rated good to excellent. The USDA also raised its US export forecast by 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting stronger demand and providing some support. Still, the prospect of abundant supplies amid drier conditions in the past week and expected in the coming days continued to overshadow export demand.

Corn futures dropped below $4.8 per bushel, hitting a seven-week low as the USDA's October report projected a larger US harvest and higher ending stocks for the 2026/27 season. The agency raised its yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre from 178.5 in September, lifting production to around 16.03 billion bushels. Ending stocks were also raised to 1.849 billion bushels from the previous estimate. Although the USDA increased its export forecast by 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion, the upward revision in production outweighed stronger projected demand. The agency also lowered its season-average farm price forecast to $4.70 per bushel from $4.80. Meanwhile, farmers are actively harvesting this week under mostly dry Midwest skies. The USDA is expected to estimate strong harvesting progress as its weekly crop progress report was delayed by a day due to a federal holiday. Elsewhere, corn drew support from renewed demand from South Korea and Taiwan after a sharp price drop.

Corn futures fell toward $5 a bushel, pressured by a stronger US dollar and caution ahead of the USDA’s monthly WASDE report due Friday. Prices surged to a one-week high on Tuesday after weekly USDA data showed corn harvest progress and crop conditions below market expectations. Only 23% of the US crop had been harvested by October 4, below the 27% five-year average and 26% expected by analysts; while the good-to-excellent crop rating also fell to 54% from 57% a week earlier, as heavy Midwest rainfall delayed fieldwork. Meanwhile, hot, dry weather earlier in the summer and heavy September rains have added uncertainty over yields and harvest potential, encouraging a wait-and-see approach ahead of Friday’s forecast.