Corn Rebounds Toward June Highs

Corn futures rebounded toward $4.6 per bushel as traders digested a critical USDA prospective plantings report that confirmed a reduction in domestic acreage amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The report revealed that US corn plantings for 2026 decreased to 95.30 million acres as rising fuel and fertilizer costs from the five week war in the Persian Gulf pressured farmers to adjust their production plans. Further bullish momentum was provided by the USDA grain stocks data showing that inventories plunged to 9.02 billion bushels in the first quarter of 2026 reflecting a sharp drawdown from 13.28 billion recorded previously. While optimism regarding potential peace talks between President Trump and Iran briefly limited the risk premium, the underlying supply shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to bolster agricultural commodities. With stocks tightening corn markets remain highly sensitive to regional hostilities.

Corn futures eased to $4.5 per bushel, pulling back from recent 10-month highs, as traders adjusted positions ahead of a critical USDA planting outlook report due later today. The USDA’s prospective planting report, set for release on Tuesday, is expected to reflect shifts in US farmers’ planting plans due to the Iran conflict, with analysts anticipating fewer corn acres this season, amid rising fertilizer and fuel costs. Adding to market volatility, oil prices remained elevated following reports of escalating strikes on regional energy infrastructure and speculation that President Donald Trump may end US military operations in Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. On the demand side, the USDA confirmed export sales of 145,000 metric tons of US corn to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. Additionally, US corn export inspections for the week ending March 26 totaled 1,789,524 bushels, exceeding trader expectations.

Corn futures fell to below $4.6 per bushel, but remained near its highest level since May 2025, supported by higher energy prices as the conflict in Iran continues to disrupt fuel and fertilizer supply chains. Oil prices remained elevated as the war in the Middle East continued to broaden in the region with no end in sight, while Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and fertilizer exports. Rising diesel and nitrogen fertilizer costs, both critical inputs for corn, are squeezing farmer margins, particularly in the US, while similar pressures are emerging globally. In regions like South Africa, fuel shortages and higher input costs are already threatening planting and harvesting activity, highlighting risks to output. With corn being highly fertilizer-intensive, the ongoing cost shock is reinforcing expectations of tighter supply and keeping prices supported, even as volatility persists.