Cocoa Futures Hover Around $5,700

Cocoa prices traded around $5,700 a tonne following recent volatility, remaining well above February’s lows, supported by signs of improvig demand and concerns over West African supplies. Third-quarter grindings rose a stronger-than-expected 14.3% across key processing regions, led by a 29.2% jump in Asia and a 3.2% rise in Europe, although North American processing declined 2.5%. On the supply side, concerns over the 2026/27 crop persist, as below-average rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana and the potential impact of El Niño raise the risk of lower production. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories continued to rise, reaching 3,593,964 bags on October 16, their highest level in more than two years.

Cocoa prices rose further to around $5,800 a tonne, their highest level since mid-September, supported by weather-related supply concerns. Local reports indicated that heavy rainfall in the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, had disrupted harvesting and delayed bean deliveries to ports, limiting near-term availability. However, both the Ivory Coast and Ghana have received below-average rainfall in recent months, raising the risk of stress on the next crop. Local farmers remained worried about the size and quality of the next cocoa crop, which is expected to be harvested from early 2027. The possible strengthening of El Niño adds to these concerns, as it could bring hotter, drier weather to West Africa and increase the risk of heavy rain and flooding in parts of Latin America, including Ecuador. Meanwhile, third-quarter cocoa-grinding data from Europe and North America, due on October 15, will provide further insight into demand.

Cocoa prices rose above $5,600 a tonne, nearly doubling their February level, as concerns grew over the next harvest in West Africa. The possible strengthening of El Niño is adding to supply concerns. Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is expected to face below-average rainfall through early 2027, according to the country’s weather agency. West Africa accounts for more than half of global cocoa production, leaving international supplies particularly exposed to adverse weather conditions in the region. StoneX Group expects Ivory Coast’s output to fall 11% to 1.8 million tonnes in the 2026–27 season. Ghana, the second-largest producer, also expects production to decline by around 13% to 650,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, estimates showed cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 77,500 tonnes so far since the start of the 2026/27 season.