Cocoa Futures at 1-Month High

Cocoa futures fell toward $5,900 per tonne, the lowest in two weeks, amid signs of ample supply. Inventories monitored by ICE have surged to a two-year high of 3.44 million bags, while expectations of a larger crop in top producer Ivory Coast have further eased concerns over near-term availability. Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest cocoa processor, echoed the more comfortable supply outlook, saying the global market is well supplied and better positioned to withstand disruptions than during the 2023/24 El Niño event, which sent prices to record highs. Still, the outlook for the 2026/27 season remains uncertain, with weather risks, particularly the development of a strong El Niño, threatening West African crops. The Cocoa Marketing Company Ghana, Ltd indicated that production could fall by as much as 38%, nearly twice the previously estimated decline, citing diseases, aging crops, and unusual pollination failures. Output in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by at least 20%.

Cocoa futures traded below $6,200 per tonne, hovering close to their lowest in over a week, on profit-booking and signs of improving supplies. Latest data showed Ivory Coast farmers shipped 2.14 MMT of cocoa to ports through August 30, 19% more than a year earlier. The country also plans to boost processing capacity to 1.3 MMT in 2026/27 from 650,000 MT. Meanwhile, ICE inventories climbed to a two-year high of 3,411,776 bags as of September 1. Still, concerns over West African cocoa supply persisted as heavy rainfall and high humidity increased disease risks and weakened pod development, threatening production from both the current and next crops. A strong El Niño could delay the rains and extend dry spells across major West African producers, with stronger Harmattan winds placing additional stress on crops.

Cocoa futures traded around $6,600 per tonne, holding close to their highest since September 2025, amid mounting concerns over West African supply. The current crop is facing quality concerns in top producers Ivory Coast and Ghana, where cloudy weather and limited sunshine have favored the spread of black pod disease, while a prolonged dry spell followed by floods and strong winds has damaged young cocoa pods and swept away some trees. The outlook for the next season is more uncertain due to excessive wetness, disease and limited access to chemicals, with risks potentially compounded by an unusually strong El Niño. Production forecasts for major growers have been lowered, with Ivory Coast’s output expected to fall by about 20% to 1.75 million tonnes and Ghana’s to decline 13% to 650,000 tonnes next season. Elsewhere, farmers in Cameroon are struggling with shortages of chemicals to control pests and diseases, while floods have disrupted cocoa farming in Nigeria.