Brent Rises as Middle East Tensions Escalate

Brent crude rose near $106 a barrel on Thursday amid mounting supply risks in the Middle East. Attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz sank a Singapore-flagged container ship, pushing tanker rates in the Persian Gulf to record highs. The US military has reportedly drawn up plans for new strikes on Iran, potentially involving the MOAB, the largest non-nuclear explosive device in the US arsenal. Iran said it was “counting the moments” until it could strike US warships. Prices were also supported by an 8-million-barrel US inventory draw in the week ended October 9th. The IEA warned that tight diesel markets could persist into next year, while attacks on Saudi Arabia threatened to disrupt the recovery in oil supply. Meanwhile, the US is reportedly considering easing sanctions on “shadow fleet” vessels transporting Russian oil and petroleum products to help ease global supply pressures.

Brent crude oil inched up to over $106 per barrel on Thursday, testing one-month highs as markets continued to focus on mounting risks to supply in the Middle East. Repeated strikes on commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz resulted in the sinking of a Singapore-flagged container ship, extending the record-high rates for tankers in the Persian Gulf. The events also dimmed prospects that oil exports from GCC countries could pick up, adding further strain to the global supply backdrop. On top of that, Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure added to export disruptions, with some tankers reportedly avoiding their usual loading areas. Consequently, data from the EIA showed that crude oil stockpiles in the US fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week to October 9th, the sharpest decline since February. In addition, the federal Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged near its record low.

Brent crude fell below $105 a barrel on Thursday as traders weighed mounting shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz against concerns over weakening global demand. The sinking of a Singapore-registered vessel in the strategic waterway and continued Iranian threats against US warships heightened fears of a prolonged regional conflict. Meanwhile, Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia raised further concerns about potential disruptions to exports, with some tankers reportedly avoiding their usual loading areas. The IEA warned that diesel market tightness could persist into next year, while forecasting global oil consumption would contract by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026. It also noted that land-based inventories had fallen close to their lowest levels in at least a decade. The latest industry data showed US crude stocks declined by 11.1 million barrels last week.