Brent Holds Firm on Heightened Supply Risks

Brent crude fell below $105 per barrel on Thursday, likely reflecting a technical correction and profit-taking following a recent rally in oil prices. Investors also assessed reports that the US is considering relaxing sanctions on so-called shadow fleet vessels that have transported oil and petroleum products from countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, as part of efforts to ease record-high global freight rates. However, supply concerns remained elevated after a container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday following a strike by unidentified projectiles, while Iran-backed Houthi forces continued missile and drone attacks across Saudi Arabia. Russia also accused Ukraine of attacking two oil refineries on Wednesday, including the 400,000-barrel-per-day Ryazan facility, breaching an “energy ceasefire” announced by US President Donald Trump.

Brent crude traded near $106 per barrel on Thursday, holding recent gains as escalating hostilities in the Middle East and Eastern Europe heightened concerns over supply disruptions. A container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after being hit by unidentified projectiles, while Iran-backed Houthi forces continued missile and drone attacks across Saudi Arabia. More oil tankers are steering clear of their usual crude-loading areas, indicating that increased Iranian attacks on shipping are disrupting export operations. Meanwhile, Russia accused Ukraine of striking two oil refineries on Wednesday, including the 400,000-barrel-per-day Ryazan facility, violating an “energy ceasefire” announced by US President Donald Trump. In the US, API data revealed that crude inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels last week, marking the largest decline since June 2025.

Brent crude rose to around $106 a barrel on Wednesday amid renewed attacks across the Middle East and the IEA’s latest assessment of the oil market. The agency’s October Oil Market Report warned that constraints in diesel markets could persist well into 2027, with fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia threatening to derail a recovery in global oil supply. Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis continued to escalate, with Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy reporting an overnight attack on an administrative building belonging to oil giant Saudi Aramco. The incident followed a series of Houthi attacks on Riyadh over the past week. A Saudi-led coalition reportedly struck Houthi energy terminals and fuel reserves in Yemen. Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Iran remained elevated. US Central Command rejected claims by the commander of Iran’s IRGC Navy that the Strait of Hormuz was under Iranian control and that any approaching US Navy warships would be “sunk.”.