Brent Holds Gains on Middle East Risks

Brent crude traded above $102 per barrel on Friday after gaining for two consecutive sessions, as the US weighed sending another aircraft carrier to the Middle East, raising the prospect of an escalation in the war with Iran and further disruptions to regional energy supplies. The Pentagon is also considering the deployment of 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, giving President Donald Trump additional options if he decides to intensify attacks on Iran. Trump has reportedly told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections. The renewed tensions come as crude flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to prewar levels, although markets remain doubtful that the recovery can be sustained without a lasting agreement to end the conflict. At least three tankers were attacked this week while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran and its Houthi allies have also targeted refineries across the region.

Brent crude climbed above $102.5 a barrel on Thursday after reports that the US is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. Marine Corps ships and up to 10,000 additional troops are also reportedly being deployed, with the forces expected to arrive by the end of November. The deployment could signal preparations for further US military action against Iran. US President Donald Trump has reportedly told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections. Oil prices are rising even as crude flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to prewar levels. However, the recovery remains fragile, with at least three tankers attacked this week while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and its Houthi allies have also attacked regional refineries. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports, while Chinese refiners canceled some gasoline and jet fuel exports planned for October.

Brent crude rose toward $100 a barrel on Thursday as reports of tighter Chinese fuel supplies added to concerns over an already disrupted global market. PetroChina has reportedly withdrawn several gasoline and jet-fuel cargoes scheduled for October, with Beijing seeking to preserve domestic inventories. The move comes as energy markets continue to absorb disruptions linked to the conflict involving the US and Iran, as well as the war in Ukraine. At the same time, concerns over outright crude shortages have eased somewhat after Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at Yanbu following the restart of its East-West pipeline. Middle Eastern crude shipments were approaching pre-war levels, although refined fuel availability, particularly gasoline, remained tighter. Investors are also monitoring diplomatic developments, with uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations persisting after indirect discussions involving mediators were held during the UN General Assembly.