Brent Rises as US-Iran Talks Lose Momentum

Brent crude prices fell toward $97 per barrel on Monday, extending last week’s losses after President Donald Trump said it was “highly unlikely” that he would authorize further strikes on Iran if negotiations over its nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz make significant progress. Trump has also acknowledged that the unpopular conflict, which has pushed oil and gasoline prices higher, contributed to Republicans’ historic defeat in the midterm elections. Brent crude plunged over 13% last week amid expectations that Democrats would push for a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio tempered optimism over a potential breakthrough in negotiations, describing Iran’s demands so far as unacceptable. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks damaged a landmark building in Riyadh’s financial district and caused minor damage to offices belonging to Saudi state oil giant Saudi Aramco.

Brent crude wavered near $98 a barrel on Friday, trimming earlier losses as investors weighed the risk of renewed US-Iran military escalation against prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough. Investors are assessing whether the end of the US midterm elections could pave the way for renewed action against Iran, potentially threatening Middle East oil supplies. Iran reported attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, while UKMTO data indicated vessel attacks were continuing at a near-record rate. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution emerged after Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar. Significant obstacles remain over Iran’s nuclear programme, with the US demanding that Iran give up its nuclear capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran demands the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent plunged over 12.5% for the week.

Brent crude fell below $98 a barrel on Friday, down more than 13% this week, the steepest decline since March 2020, as hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East eased concerns over supply disruptions. US President Donald Trump discussed de-escalation efforts with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, while Tehran is reportedly reviewing proposals from mediators concerning its nuclear programme. A potential resolution to the conflict could allow more crude exports from the region. However, significant obstacles remain, as Iran is demanding the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, attacks on oil-carrying vessels continue, with UKMTO data indicating that incidents remain close to record levels.