Brent Falls Below $93 Ahead of Further US Sanctions on Iran

Brent crude traded above $105 per barrel on Friday and was on track for a weekly gain amid mounting supply concerns in the Middle East. The US Central Command confirmed that a Singapore-flagged container ship that sank in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week was hit by an Iranian projectile, adding uncertainty over the recovery of physical oil flows and pushing tanker rates to record highs. Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen further heightened supply risks. Meanwhile, the IEA agreed to proceed with the release of the remaining 100 million barrels of oil from a coordinated intervention launched in March, following lobbying efforts by US officials. Elsewhere, EIA data revealed that US crude inventories dropped by 8.6 million barrels last week, marking their largest decline since February. Brent underperformed WTI this week as lower shipping costs for US crude boosted demand for American barrels.

Brent crude rose near $106 a barrel on Thursday amid mounting supply risks in the Middle East. Attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz sank a Singapore-flagged container ship, pushing tanker rates in the Persian Gulf to record highs. The US military has reportedly drawn up plans for new strikes on Iran, potentially involving the MOAB, the largest non-nuclear explosive device in the US arsenal. Iran said it was “counting the moments” until it could strike US warships. Prices were also supported by an 8-million-barrel US inventory draw in the week ended October 9th. The IEA warned that tight diesel markets could persist into next year, while attacks on Saudi Arabia threatened to disrupt the recovery in oil supply. Meanwhile, the US is reportedly considering easing sanctions on “shadow fleet” vessels transporting Russian oil and petroleum products to help ease global supply pressures.

Brent crude oil inched up to over $106 per barrel on Thursday, testing one-month highs as markets continued to focus on mounting risks to supply in the Middle East. Repeated strikes on commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz resulted in the sinking of a Singapore-flagged container ship, extending the record-high rates for tankers in the Persian Gulf. The events also dimmed prospects that oil exports from GCC countries could pick up, adding further strain to the global supply backdrop. On top of that, Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure added to export disruptions, with some tankers reportedly avoiding their usual loading areas. Consequently, data from the EIA showed that crude oil stockpiles in the US fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week to October 9th, the sharpest decline since February. In addition, the federal Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged near its record low.