Brent Holds Steady at Pre-War Levels

Brent held steady around $71.5 per barrel on Friday, hovering near levels last seen before the Middle East conflict erupted in late February as commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover amid progress in US-Iran talks. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports have rebounded to about 90% of their pre-war levels as more tankers successfully transit the key waterway, signaling that regional oil supply is gradually normalizing. The UAE has also restored its oil exports to pre-war levels by routing tankers through the Strait of Hormuz without drawing attention and relying on a pipeline that bypasses the chokepoint. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing well after mediators from Qatar and Pakistan held separate meetings with US and Iranian officials in Doha on Wednesday.

Brent crude oil prices were trading near $71.5 on Thursday, recovering from a 2% decline earlier in the session as traders sought to secure supplies ahead of the extended U.S. Independence Day weekend. Still, prices remained at their lowest level since February 27, as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover steadily and investors remained hopeful that a permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran could be reached. The United Arab Emirates restored its exports to more than 3.9 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia ramped up oil exports to Asia, bringing total daily flows through the Strait of Hormuz above 10 million barrels. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said U.S.-Iran negotiations were progressing well after mediators from Qatar and Pakistan concluded separate meetings with U.S. and Iranian negotiators in Doha on Wednesday.

Brent crude oil prices declined by around 2% toward $70 per barrel on Thursday, extending losses for the third straight session to pre-war levels as maritime supply through the Strait of Hormuz rapidly expanded. The United Arab Emirates restored its exports to over 3.9 million barrels daily, pushing total daily Hormuz flows past 10 million barrels. This surge, combined with ongoing emergency reserve releases and ad hoc Saudi sales to Asia, has created a market surplus. Meanwhile, upcoming peace talks in Qatar face delays due to the funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which begins on July 4. Geopolitical friction remains high, as Tehran demands maritime control over the strait, while US President Donald Trump reiterated his stance against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, US data showed total domestic oil stockpiles fell to their lowest levels since March 2025 after twelve consecutive weeks of drawdowns.