Brent +2.9% After Hormuz Spike

Brent crude futures dropped about 2% toward $97 per barrel on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session as reports indicated that the US and Iran are considering further negotiations aimed at securing a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce expires. President Donald Trump stated that Tehran had initiated contact with Washington, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled readiness to pursue continued dialogue, provided it remains within the bounds of international law and regulations. Both sides failed to reach a deal after 21 hours of negotiations over the weekend, prompting President Trump to announce a blockade on Iranian oil shipments. Meanwhile, an OPEC+ report revealed that the group’s output fell by 7.9 million barrels per day in March, largely due to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are now turning their attention to the IEA’s upcoming monthly market report for clearer signals on global supply-demand conditions.

Brent crude oil traded up about 2.9% at $98 per barrel after being up as much as 7% earlier in the session, following reports of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after the collapse of US–Iran negotiations. The move sharply increased fears of supply disruptions in one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, adding a significant geopolitical risk premium to prices. Tensions around Iran kept markets highly sensitive, despite some offset from Saudi Arabia’s restored pipeline capacity and mixed OPEC output signals. Gains later faded as traders took profits and reassessed the likelihood of further escalation. The rally has reignited inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment and raising worries over weaker global growth due to higher energy costs.

Brent crude oil futures surged 7% to $101.6 per barrel on Monday, recouping losses from last week after President Donald Trump announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of weekend negotiations with Iran. The restrictions will apply only to vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports starting at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. The US accused Tehran of refusing to curb its nuclear ambitions, while Iran reportedly sought control of the strait. The key shipping route has effectively remained closed since the conflict began, driving sharp gains in oil and gas prices and raising concerns about inflationary pressures and weaker global growth. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said it has restored full pumping capacity through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, along with output from the Manifa field. OPEC data showed output plunged sharply in March, driven by steep declines across key producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait.