Brent crude rose toward $112 a barrel on Thursday, approaching the four-year high of $114.44 reached on May 4, as concerns grew over a potential escalation of the Middle East conflict and renewed US strikes against Iran. Reports indicate that US and Israeli militaries have developed plans for a short, intensive operation following next month’s midterm elections. Washington has also ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, citing increasing attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi forces. Regional security concerns intensified after deadly strikes targeted Saudi facilities, including a drone attack on the Shaybah oilfield. Despite mounting tensions, crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have increased toward pre-conflict levels, with some tankers reportedly switching off their tracking systems to avoid detection. Nevertheless, shipments of refined oil products remain constrained, sustaining concerns over global energy supplies.

Brent crude climbed above $111 per barrel on Thursday, returning to five-month highs after a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field killed two people. The incident underscored rising tensions in the Middle East and heightened concerns over further disruptions to energy supplies. The US has also ordered some personnel and family members to leave American embassies in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Ukraine launched large-scale drone attacks on Russia this week, targeting critical oil infrastructure and signaling Kyiv’s intention to prevent Moscow from expanding diesel exports under an agreement between Presidents Trump and Putin. However, further gains in oil prices may be constrained by rising crude shipments from the Middle East, with export flows nearing prewar levels. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports increased by 7.9% in August, reaching their highest level since March. Russia is also expected to deliver its first diesel shipment to the US on Thursday.

Brent crude rose above $109 a barrel on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses in a volatile session amid escalating attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure across the Middle East. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said naval mines had halted three tankers attempting to use routes Tehran deemed unauthorized, while the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a vessel had been struck near Oman. Despite the security risks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were approaching prewar levels, while data from Kpler and Vortexa showed broader Middle Eastern exports had increased since the summer. Separately, Yemen’s Houthi militants claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield, as well as airports in Riyadh and Abha. US EIA data showed crude inventories fell by just over 3 million barrels last week, below the 4.9 million-barrel decline reported by industry data.