Brent Jumps Over 3%

Brent crude oil futures jumped more than 3% toward $84 per barrel on Thursday, approaching its highest level since July 2024, as the Middle East conflict disrupts global oil supplies. China’s government has ordered its major refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports amid rising tensions in the Persian Gulf. Concerns over further escalation around Iran and ongoing regional instability have kept investors on edge, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint, has been disrupted. Efforts to ease market worries, including proposals for vessel insurance and naval escorts, have so far failed to calm investors, who are closely monitoring developments for signs of a prolonged conflict. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels to 439.3 million, well above expectations, providing a buffer against potential supply shocks.

Brent crude futures climbed more than 2% to above $83 per barrel on Thursday, extending this week’s advance as hostilities between the US and Iran escalated after a US submarine reportedly sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the strike as the “first such attack on an enemy since World War II.” The broader US-Israeli campaign against Iran has now entered its sixth day, keeping markets on edge for further escalation and the risk of a drawn-out conflict. The crisis has effectively halted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, after the IRGC warned it would “set ablaze” any vessel attempting transit. In an effort to limit a wider energy shock, President Donald Trump offerd risk insurance and naval escorts for commercial vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined additional measures aimed at stabilizing Gulf markets.

Brent crude oil futures fell toward $81 per barrel on Wednesday, retreating from July 2024 highs and posting their first decline since the onset of direct conflict, as government pledges to safeguard trade routes tempered immediate supply fears. The crisis has effectively halted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC warning it would “set ablaze” any vessel attempting transit. Seeking to contain a broader energy shock, President Trump instructed the DFC to offer political risk insurance at reasonable rates, while Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a series of measures to stabilize the Gulf. Despite US promises of naval escorts, major shipowners remain anchored, preserving a sizable geopolitical risk premium as markets await an operational federal insurance backstop. Meanwhile, Iranian UN Ambassador Ali Bahreini denied any indirect talks with Washington, saying the only remaining language is defense after strikes that killed senior Iranian leaders.