Brent Rises as US-Iran War Intensifies

Brent crude rose toward $112 a barrel on Thursday, approaching the four-year high of $114.44 reached on May 4, amid concerns that the Middle East conflict could escalate as the US reportedly prepares to resume strikes against Iran. US and Israeli military officials have developed plans for a renewed campaign following next month’s US midterm elections, with preparations for a short but intensive operation underway. President Donald Trump said Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and suggested that developments could occur soon, potentially after the elections. Meanwhile, the US ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, citing escalating attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis on civilian targets. Despite rising tensions, crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have moved closer to pre-conflict levels, with some tankers reportedly disabling tracking systems to avoid detection. However, refined oil product shipments remain constrained.

Brent crude rose toward $112 a barrel on Thursday, approaching the four-year high of $114.44 reached on May 4, as concerns grew over a potential escalation of the Middle East conflict and renewed US strikes against Iran. Reports indicate that US and Israeli militaries have developed plans for a short, intensive operation following next month’s midterm elections. Washington has also ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, citing increasing attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi forces. Regional security concerns intensified after deadly strikes targeted Saudi facilities, including a drone attack on the Shaybah oilfield. Despite mounting tensions, crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have increased toward pre-conflict levels, with some tankers reportedly switching off their tracking systems to avoid detection. Nevertheless, shipments of refined oil products remain constrained, sustaining concerns over global energy supplies.

Brent crude climbed above $111 per barrel on Thursday, returning to five-month highs after a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field killed two people. The incident underscored rising tensions in the Middle East and heightened concerns over further disruptions to energy supplies. The US has also ordered some personnel and family members to leave American embassies in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Ukraine launched large-scale drone attacks on Russia this week, targeting critical oil infrastructure and signaling Kyiv’s intention to prevent Moscow from expanding diesel exports under an agreement between Presidents Trump and Putin. However, further gains in oil prices may be constrained by rising crude shipments from the Middle East, with export flows nearing prewar levels. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports increased by 7.9% in August, reaching their highest level since March. Russia is also expected to deliver its first diesel shipment to the US on Thursday.