Brent Rises Further on Heightened Mideast Tensions

Brent crude futures rose 2% to above $79 per barrel on Tuesday after rallying over 6% in the prior session, as traders tracked escalating hostilities in the Middle East and mounting risks of a full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US would do “whatever it takes” when asked how long the war with Iran could persist. A senior US official also reportedly indicated that the US was preparing a significant escalation in strikes on Iran within the next 24 hours, targeting its missile production, drones and naval assets. Meanwhile, a high-ranking Iranian official warned that ships attempting to transit the strait could be targeted. Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, have effectively stalled amid heightened security risks. Saudi Aramco also temporarily suspended operations at its Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s largest, while evaluating damage after a drone strike hit the facility.

Brent crude futures surged more than 8% to approach $79 a barrel on Monday, the highest level since January 2025, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Shipping companies have begun rerouting vessels away from the narrow waterway as a precaution. The spike in prices followed a series of strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, which prompted retaliatory attacks by Tehran against regional targets. Saudi Aramco temporarily halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s largest, while assessing damage after a drone attack targeted the facility. Meanwhile, OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in April, ending a three-month pause. However, this increase fell short of the 411,000–548,000 barrels per day that had been under previous consideration, keeping the market on edge amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Brent crude oil futures traded 8% higher to around $78.7 per barrel on Monday, after an earlier spike of nearly 13% to the highest since January 2025. The rally followed unprecedented strikes by the US and Israel, heightening fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Markets are particularly focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments and significant volumes of natural gas. Tehran insists the strait remains open but shipping companies quickly began rerouting vessels away from the narrow waterway. Iran has also launched retaliatory missile barrages at US bases across neighboring countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase production by 206,000 bpd in April, ending a three-month pause, but well below the 411,000–548,000 barrels per day that had been previously considered.