Brent Jumps After OPEC+ Keeps Output Unchanged

Brent crude futures hovered near $100.49 per barrel on Thursday, extending their recent retreat as hopes of de-escalation in the Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, gained traction, with the White House facing growing pressure to ease tensions. President Trump said the U.S. could halt military strikes within two to three weeks, while keeping the option for limited “spot” attacks. Earlier, Trump stated Iran had sought a ceasefire but stressed any deal would require Tehran to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a claim Iran denied. Markets now await his national address for further clarity. Meanwhile, Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency warned disruptions could intensify in April, with any prolonged closure of the Strait curbing flows and weighing on Europe. Elsewhere, U.S. crude stocks jumped 5.5 million barrels to 461.6 million in the week ended March 27, far above forecasts and marking a sixth straight rise, highlighting ample supply.

Brent crude futures fell to $100.5 per barrel on Wednesday as growing optimism for a resolution to the conflict with Iran pulled prices lower to start the new month. President Donald Trump suggested US military forces could leave the region within two or three weeks while confirming that Iran’s president has requested a ceasefire. Despite these gains, the White House maintained a firm stance noting that a ceasefire would only be considered once the Strait of Hormuz is open and secure for global shipping. Elsewhere, commercial crude stocks surged by 5.5 million barrels to 461.6 million in the week ended March 27 which far exceeded analyst expectations and marked the sixth consecutive weekly increase. This domestic surplus was driven by a drop in refinery utilization to 92.1% and a decrease in crude runs of 219,000 barrels per day. The strategic waterway remains a critical focus for energy markets after oil funds saw record trading volumes in March.

Brent crude futures were lower at around $101.7 per barrel at the start of April, though they pared most of their earlier losses as hopes for a swift de-escalation of the conflict with Iran began to fade. US President Donald Trump said Iran is seeking a ceasefire and that Washington would consider one once the Strait of Hormuz is open, free, and secure, adding that until then, the US is blasting Iran into oblivion. Earlier, the President had suggested the US could end its military involvement within two to three weeks, a comment that briefly pushed oil prices down to as low as $98.5 per barrel. In reality, however, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with attacks continuing across the Gulf. Around 25% of global seaborne oil trade transits through the Strait, with roughly 80% of those flows destined for Asian markets. In March, oil prices surged more than 60%, marking their largest monthly gain on record and reaching their highest levels since 2022.