Brent Crude Oil Edges Up, Still Near 5-Month Low

Brent crude oil futures rose above $105 per barrel on Wednesday, recouping losses from the previous session and extending their record monthly jump, as markets weighed President Trump’s remarks amid fresh attacks in the Persian Gulf. Trump told reporters that US forces could withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks and suggested a deal with Tehran might be possible but was not required to end the conflict. However, markets remained cautious as additional US troops arrived in the region, and Tehran said no formal peace talks were underway but signaled willingness to end the war if its conditions are met. All eyes are now on Trump’s nationwide address on the Iran conflict later today. Meanwhile, Iranian drones struck fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, triggering a large fire and damaging the tanks, adding to recent attacks on energy infrastructure. Elsewhere, API data showed US crude inventories surged by 10.263 million barrels last week.

Brent crude retreated to around $104.1 per barrel on Wednesday morning, extending losses from the prior session, as hopes rose for a Middle East de-escalation. The Wall Street Journal reported President Donald Trump may end US operations before the Strait of Hormuz reopens, aiming to avoid prolonging the war. Iran’s president echoed a willingness to halt hostilities if guarantees are secured. Yet skepticism lingered, with Iran’s past firm demands and ongoing US troop deployments heightening risks of renewed escalation. Despite the pullback, Brent surged over 60% in March, its biggest monthly gain since records began in 1988, driven by supply disruptions and damaged infrastructure across key OPEC producers. On the data front, US crude inventories soared by 10.263 million barrels in the week ended March 27, the largest build in weeks, after a 2.3 million barrel rise previously, defying forecasts for a 1.3 million barrel draw.

Brent crude oil prices fell to the $105 per barrel mark on Tuesday, trimming the surge that topped at $108 today after the Iranian President stated he is ready to end the war if Iranian conditions are met. The rhetoric matched US President Trump's de-escalation attempts after suspending attacks on the country, potentially aiding an eventual restart of tanker flows from major GCC oil producers in the Strait of Hormuz. While hopes of restored supply limited the pressure in crude prices, the small magnitude of the pullback reflected skepticism of imminent peace due to the rigidity of Iran's previous demands and the movement of US troops to the Middle East, risking escalation. Global oil prices were due to gain around 40% in March, peaking at their highest since 2022 as the outbreak of the war halted supplies from the region and damaged energy infrastructure in key OPEC members.