Aluminum Hits 4-year High

Aluminum futures in the UK climbed above $3,780 per tonne, the highest in more than four years, as the market continued to grapple with supply disruptions. Persistent uncertainty over a US-Iran peace deal that could pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has raised the risk that aluminum exports from the Persian Gulf may remain constrained for longer. Supply risks have been further exacerbated by direct attacks on major refiners in the region. EGA’s flagship smelter is expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity, while operations at Bahrain's ALBA remain partially suspended. Meanwhile, Guinea's stricter controls on bauxite exports have added to concerns over tighter raw material supplies. Stress in the market was also reflected in the premium of cash aluminum over three-month contracts, which surged to 19-year highs. Separately, President Donald Trump reduced tariffs on certain steel and aluminum derivative products to 15% from 25%.

Aluminum increased to 3709.00 USD/T, the highest since March 2022. Over the past 4 weeks, Aluminum gained 3.71%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 49.86%.

Aluminum futures in the UK rose to $3,680 per tonne, the highest in over four years, amid prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East. The US struck Iranian targets and dimmed recent expectations that an agreement between both countries could restart vessel flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Their naval blockade has halted exports that were responsible for 9% of global supply of aluminum. On top of that, direct attacks on the largest refiners in the region delayed the eventual return of supply from the area, with EGA's flagship plant expected to return to capacity in one year, and Bahrain's ALBA operations being suspended. The resulting surge in natural gas costs also lifted refining costs. Meanwhile, Guinea announced controls of bauxite exports starting on June, adding to the tightness. The mismatch drove the LME aluminum curve to backwardation, with cash contracts trading at a $60 premium to the three-month futures.