Colombia Central Bank Holds Key Rate at 12.25%

The Central Bank of Colombia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 12.25% at its October 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations. The Board of Directors noted that annual inflation edged up to 6.3% in September, slightly below forecasts. Core inflation, meanwhile, declined from 6.1% in August to 6.0% in September. However, the El Niño weather phenomenon represents a significant upside risk to the outlook for food and regulated prices. Inflation expectations for December 2026 edged up to 6.9%. The Board also noted that Colombia’s annual economic growth is estimated to have slowed in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. Domestic demand indicators point to weaker consumption growth in both the private and public sectors. The Board emphasized the importance of thoroughly reviewing the Economic Rescue Bill submitted to Congress, noting that the evolution of public finances is a key factor in future monetary policy decisions.

Colombia’s central bank unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% on its September meeting, the highest level since early 2024, as it seeks to bring inflation back toward target after years of above-target price growth. Four policymakers backed the increase, while two voted to hold and one favored a larger 50-basis-point hike. Annual inflation accelerated to 6.24% in August and is expected to remain above the upper end of the central bank’s 2%-4% target range through 2026 and 2027. The board said the decision maintained a restrictive monetary policy consistent with a declining inflation path in 2027. Meanwhile, recent data pointed to weaker economic activity, with urban unemployment rising to 9.1% in August and economic activity, manufacturing and retail sales falling short of forecasts in July. The decision came amid concerns over the country’s fiscal outlook, with the government facing a widening budget deficit and seeking discussions with the IMF.

Colombia's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 12.0% on July 31st. The bank noted that annual inflation rose to 6.1% in June, driven by higher food and regulated prices, while core inflation held steady at 6.0%. Inflation expectations for end-2026 and 2027 increased to 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively, with market-based expectations remaining above 6.0%. The bank also noted that economic activity strengthened in the second quarter, supported by robust services sector growth, and maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.5%. The unemployment rate fell to 8.0% in June. A stronger Colombian peso has helped ease inflationary pressures, but risks from the Middle East conflict and a potential El Niño event could fuel inflation and weigh on growth. Future policy decisions will remain data dependent.