Bulgaria Business Mood Hits 11-Month High

Bulgaria’s industrial business climate index climbed to 18.4 in May 2026, picking up from a more than five-year low of 12.4 in the previous month. The reading was the highest since June 2025, as firms assessed the current business situation more favorably (23.2 vs 14.2 in April), despite present production activity turning negative (-2.2 vs 3.3). At the same time, expectations for production activity over the next three months improved (11.4 vs 9.4), while the employment outlook for the same period returned to positive territory (2.5 vs -0.1). Meanwhile, selling price expectations for the next three months eased (14.7 vs 18.9). Key limiting factors included economic uncertainty (48.4), labor shortages (32.7), weak domestic (23.7) and foreign (22.0) demand, as well as weaknesses in economic legislation (14.2).

Bulgaria’s industry business climate index declined to 12.4 in April 2026, the lowest reading since December 2020, down from 15.0 in March. Key limiting factors were elevated economic uncertainty (49.6%), labour shortages (33.3%), insufficient domestic demand (24.3%) and foreign demand (24.9%), along with regulatory weaknesses (18.7%). Firms assessed the current business situation as weaker (14.2 vs 16.2 in March), although present production activity improved (3.3 vs -0.3). Total order levels deteriorated further (-16.6 vs -15.7), while finished goods inventories also worsened (-3.9 vs -2.1). Expectations for selling prices increased (18.9 vs 10.9), pointing to stronger cost pass-through pressures. Employment outlook turned slightly negative (-0.1 vs 3.1), while uncertainty surrounding future conditions rose (-14.1 vs -8.8). Production expectations for the next three months moderated (9.4 vs 13.5), and the six-month business outlook also weakened (10.7 vs 13.9).

Bulgaria’s business climate in industry eased to 15.0 in March 2026 from 16.3 in February. Constraining factors included economic uncertainty (47.3%), labour shortages (34.2%), weak domestic (24.9%) and foreign demand (24.9%), and weaknesses in economic legislation (17.9%). Firms reported a weaker current business situation (16.2 vs 19.0), while present production activity was largely unchanged (-0.3 vs -9.2). Total orders continued to decline (-15.7 vs -22.1), as well as stocks of finished goods (-2.1 vs -1.9), while selling price expectations rose (10.9 vs 8.8), signaling that firms anticipate higher costs or intend to pass them on to customers. Employment expectations softened (3.1 vs 4.6), and uncertainty about the business environment remained elevated (-8.8 vs -9.2). Production expectations over the next three months improved (13.5 vs 12.3), while six-month business expectations rose slightly (13.9 vs 13.6).