Bulgaria Business Confidence Weakens

Bulgaria’s industrial business climate index declined to 16.1 in June 2026 from an eight-month high of 18.4 in May, remaining below the long-term average of 21.4. The figure reflects more subdued assessments from industrial entrepreneurs regarding the current business situation (-3.3 vs -2.2 in May). At the same time, expectations for production activity over the next three months turned more negative (8.7 vs 11.4), while employment prospects over the same period also weakened (0.7 vs 2.5). The uncertain economic environment and labour shortages continue to be the main obstacles to business development, cited by 46.9% and 32.4% of enterprises, respectively. Regarding selling prices, most managers expect them to remain unchanged over the next three months, suggesting limited near-term inflationary pressure in the sector.

Bulgaria’s industrial business climate index climbed to 18.4 in May 2026, picking up from a more than five-year low of 12.4 in the previous month. The reading was the highest since September 2025, as firms assessed the current business situation more favorably (23.2 vs 14.2 in April), despite present production activity turning negative (-2.2 vs 3.3). At the same time, expectations for production activity over the next three months improved (11.4 vs 9.4), while the employment outlook for the same period returned to positive territory (2.5 vs -0.1). Meanwhile, selling price expectations for the next three months eased (14.7 vs 18.9). Key limiting factors included economic uncertainty (48.4), labor shortages (32.7), weak domestic (23.7) and foreign (22.0) demand, as well as weaknesses in economic legislation (14.2).

Bulgaria’s industry business climate index declined to 12.4 in April 2026, the lowest reading since December 2020, down from 15.0 in March. Key limiting factors were elevated economic uncertainty (49.6%), labour shortages (33.3%), insufficient domestic demand (24.3%) and foreign demand (24.9%), along with regulatory weaknesses (18.7%). Firms assessed the current business situation as weaker (14.2 vs 16.2 in March), although present production activity improved (3.3 vs -0.3). Total order levels deteriorated further (-16.6 vs -15.7), while finished goods inventories also worsened (-3.9 vs -2.1). Expectations for selling prices increased (18.9 vs 10.9), pointing to stronger cost pass-through pressures. Employment outlook turned slightly negative (-0.1 vs 3.1), while uncertainty surrounding future conditions rose (-14.1 vs -8.8). Production expectations for the next three months moderated (9.4 vs 13.5), and the six-month business outlook also weakened (10.7 vs 13.9).