South Korea | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Korea including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Korea economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 5990.00 9625 7812 6179 7703 17300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 38.60 39 39 39 38 44 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1143.07 1140 1150 1190 1180 1360 [+]
Stock Market 2382.56 2350 2330 2250 2280 1900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.12 2.19 2.21 2.24 2.26 2.6 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 3 percent [+]
GDP 1377.87 1472 1472 1472 1526 1602 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 384284.60 382962 384875 387136 389846 420903 KRW Billion [+]
Gross National Product 386472.40 402000 404000 426000 412000 475000 KRW Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 122468.40 117000 119000 120000 119000 134000 KRW Billion [+]
GDP per capita 25022.80 25619 25761 25902 26103 28989 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 34386.57 35873 35870 35870 35700 38201 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7263.80 6920 6800 6710 7400 7108 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 17856.20 17750 18200 18400 18880 21000 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 110805.00 109700 109500 110000 111740 116900 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 577.30 597 650 600 610 648 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 23018.10 22900 22800 23100 22400 24900 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Services 202240.10 205500 207100 206702 209100 224801 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 12790.00 12810 13010 12960 13120 14000 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 7227.00 7550 7800 7609 8010 8886 KRW Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 26464.00 26600 26771 26900 26980 28700 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 999.00 1057 1110 1101 1011 1280 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.60 63.6 63.7 62.8 61.5 63 percent [+]
Labour Costs 134.10 127 142 139 153 151 Index Points [+]
Productivity 98.10 96.3 95.2 97 97.8 97.3 Index Points [+]
Wages 3623535.00 3333250 3597462 3621741 3782260 4093364 KRW/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 4051306.00 3566010 3842926 4006388 4247382 4424766 KRW/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 6470.00 6470 6470 6470 6700 7100 KRW/Hour [+]
Population 50.80 51 51 51 51.2 51.59 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.60 10.2 9.7 8.5 11.1 8.4 percent [+]
Employment Rate 61.30 61.4 61.2 60.3 60.4 60.6 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0 0.3 0.1 0.16 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.80 103 104 104 105 108 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.12 104 104 105 106 113 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.50 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.9 3.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 111.09 113 115 118 120 146 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 102.26 104 103 104 106 114 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.50 4 3.9 3.7 3.3 1.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 84.71 86 88 91 93 104 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 80.63 82 84 86 88 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.40 3.9 2.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.22 102 102 103 103 108 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.37 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 89978600.00 91538234 94052176 96524116 98984279 125456876 KRW Million [+]
Money Supply M1 793708.30 808000 815000 829000 858319 1160000 KRW Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2450489.90 2490000 2520000 2550000 2575981 3180000 KRW Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 3433139.20 3450000 3520000 3690000 3657719 4750000 KRW Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 378456.20 383000 384000 386000 383079 411000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7651663.00 7690000 7780000 7792022 7848064 9320000 KRW Hundred Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.80 1 1 1 1.5 3.5 percent [+]
Private Debt To Gdp 253.50 253 253 252 252 244 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 479434.90 477000 494000 498000 499000 536000 KRW Billion [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 6637.70 6801 6682 6830 6711 6659 USD Hundreds of Millions [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 5990.00 9625 7812 6179 7703 17300 USD Million [+]
Exports 45038.00 46565 42480 43717 47836 50800 USD Million [+]
Imports 39050.00 36940 34668 37538 40133 49000 USD Million [+]
Current Account 3995.00 11300 9270 9450 12500 9010 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 7.00 7 7 7 6.2 5.8 percent [+]
External Debt 405686.50 395000 405000 400000 378000 461000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 104.50 104 104 105 106 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 3851000.00 5520000 4504074 8160000 4203231 9040000 USD Thousand [+]
Capital Flows 1802.20 11840 10113 11700 10117 14800 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 990600.00 1400000 1200000 1380000 1600000 1920000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1069833.00 1650000 1620000 1480000 1294735 2890000 [+]
Gold Reserves 104.40 104 104 104 104 104 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.42 [+]
Weapons Sales 534.00 263 170 260 220 260 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.60 39 39 39 38 44 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.00 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -2.9 -3.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 9070.00 -12785 9062 8491 8135 -4300 KRW Billion [+]
Government Spending 56152.00 56591 57019 57441 57852 62327 KRW Billion [+]
Government Revenues 154263.00 87500 199335 364000 198155 396000 KRW Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 145192.00 125000 200762 353000 197434 396000 KRW Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 37264.60 37795 37944 38092 41430 40687 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 611.00 520 540 810 618 950 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 32.00 34 34 34 34.5 36 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 82.00 80 79 79 82 83 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.20 50.1 50 50.3 50.2 50.9 [+]
Industrial Production 1.70 5.6 6.7 1.7 3.8 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.20 1 0.33 0.8 0.34 1.7 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.70 3.1 5.4 2.4 3.7 1.1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 113.30 113 114 114 114 117 Index Points [+]
New Orders 6728762.00 4919647 4890000 4090671 6068077 5110000 KRW Million [+]
Changes in Inventories -980.90 -1831 -4200 -2404 1824 5030 KRW Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 44.00 43 40 52 41 58 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 126641.00 159209 120000 139000 145424 155000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 130.30 130 130 131 133 146 Index Points [+]
Mining Production -9.10 -2 2.8 3.5 2.8 4.7 percent [+]
Steel Production 5665.00 5620 5900 6150 6200 6410 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 5869.00 6290 5300 6100 5700 6540 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Coincident Index 125.10 126 126 127 128 136 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.03 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.3 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 26.00 25 25 25 24 21 [+]
Corruption Index 53.00 60 60 60 63 68 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 52.00 34 34 34 33 30 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 5.00 4 4 4 4 3 [+]
Electricity Production 22598.09 22514 22100 24304 23037 24300 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 111.10 111 108 106 107 102 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.70 -2.2 0.9 0.1 0.34 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.80 3.3 1.9 5.2 2.19 6 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 183116.60 184000 186000 187000 188000 201000 KRW Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1632613.90 1590008 1610372 1630735 1630735 1883369 KRW Billion [+]
Personal Savings 9.30 9 9 9 9.8 11.4 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1359653.80 1385453 1410344 1444487 1462072 1695781 KRW Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.42 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.27 3.7 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.32 1.34 1.25 1.21 1.2 1.19 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 92.80 94.29 94.96 95.56 93.3 98.49 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 101.50 101 102 102 102 104 Index points [+]
Construction Orders 5229761.00 6980000 8600000 8650000 7150000 8000000 KRW Million [+]
Construction Output 19.40 8.5 20.8 16.8 22 5.9 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 56.80 54.4 54.4 54.4 55 55.8 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.20 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.00 38 38 38 38 38 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 16.76 16.76 16.76 16.76 16.76 16.76 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 8.40 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.40 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 percent [+]