South Korea - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Korea including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Korea economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.8 1 0.9 0.9 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.80 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 percent
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade 6611.00 8767 5453 7200 5350 1800 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.00 38 38 38 39 40 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1087.08
1078 1098 1118 1138 1223
Stock Market 2466.01
points
2338 2271 2205 2141 1904
Government Bond 10Y 2.76
percent
2.74 2.84 2.96 3.07 3.58
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10
percent
0.8 1 0.9 0.9 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
3.1 2.7 2.8 2.7 3
GDP 1411.25
USD Billion
1503 1503 1503 1542 1600
GDP Constant Prices 395932.80
KRW Billion
393116 397815 402648 395069 426755
Gross National Product 422891.90
KRW Billion
406324 418317 434733 396889 460760
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 128329.80
KRW Billion
126911 127815 128101 126092 135771
GDP per capita 25458.90
USD
25882 27491 26180 28138 28802
GDP per capita PPP 34985.80
USD
35567 35772 36680 37400 38201
GDP From Agriculture 7531.90
KRW Billion
7300 7157 7271 7402 7706
GDP From Construction 17957.40
KRW Billion
17767 17913 17876 18260 18946
GDP From Manufacturing 114019.80
KRW Billion
112585 115341 115005 113708 121890
GDP From Mining 511.60
KRW Billion
582 564 563 601 596
GDP From Public Administration 23692.70
KRW Billion
23554 23632 24114 23662 25557
GDP From Services 209158.30
KRW Billion
207785 209498 213128 208658 225887
GDP From Transport 13025.00
KRW Billion
13011 13252 13474 13115 14281
GDP From Utilities 7326.60
KRW Billion
7708 7824 7966 7539 8443
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.80
percent
3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1
Employed Persons 26807.00
Thousand
27000 26798 27500 26798 28700
Unemployed Persons 1068.00
Thousand
1065 1060 1153 1062 1280
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.50
percent
63.9 62.66 62.9 62.91 63
Labour Costs 145.80
Index Points
135 158 137 153 142
Productivity 109.70
Index Points
108 108 109 109 112
Wages 3541984.00
KRW/Month
3561000 3692000 3766000 3863000 4093000
Wages in Manufacturing 3877934.00
KRW/Month
3697000 3943000 4146000 4376000 4424000
Minimum Wages 7530.00
KRW/Hour
7530 7530 7530 8200 8800
Population 51.45
Million
51.2 50.91 51.2 50.99 51.37
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.70
percent
10.3 9.93 8.7 10.06 8.4
Employment Rate 60.90
percent
61.5 60.22 60.3 60.5 60.6
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.28 0 0.1 0.09 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.30
Index Points
104 105 105 106 110
Core Consumer Prices 104.32
Index Points
105 106 106 107 113
Core Inflation Rate 1.40
percent
1.7 2.2 2.4 2.5 3.2
GDP Deflator 109.49
Index Points
122 113 130 113 146
Producer Prices 104.13
Index Points
104 106 106 107 111
Producer Prices Change 1.60
percent
2 2.9 3.1 2.8 1.9
Export Prices 83.85
Index Points
95 89.35 102 91.5 104
Import Prices 85.03
Index Points
90 83.56 95 83.56 103
Food Inflation 2.90
percent
1.8 2 2.2 2.5 2.9
CPI Transportation 102.93
Index Points
102 103 104 105 109
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.65
percent
1.65 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4
Money Supply M0 98328200.00
KRW Million
93021660 92694148 93257778 93563909 93377405
Money Supply M1 840742.50
KRW Billion
838705 839453 900000 838850 1160000
Money Supply M2 2578650.10
KRW Billion
2577893 2545824 2720000 2480225 3180000
Money Supply M3 3645193.30
KRW Billion
3632191 3633606 4050000 3567090 4750000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 398420.00
USD Million
377510 398398 393000 398190 411000
Loans to Private Sector 7814500.00
KRW Hundred Million
7815653 7851306 7958045 7907143 8320000
Deposit Interest Rate 1.67
percent
1.67 1.92 1.92 1.92 2.42
Private Debt To Gdp 253.50
percent
249 256 257 256 258
Central Bank Balance Sheet 480078.80
KRW Billion
480000 476655 483000 476130 506000
Foreign Stock Investment 7749.54
USD Hundreds of Millions
7374 7307 7330 7322 7324
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 6611.00
USD Million
8767 5453 7200 5350 1800
Exports 50060.00
USD Million
48900 49574 48100 49378 50800
Imports 43449.00
USD Million
40133 44121 40900 44028 49000
Current Account 5180.00
USD Million
8700 5709 10680 6466 9010
Current Account to GDP 5.60
percent
6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 5.8
External Debt 418823.50
USD Million
4180000 423674 426000 421901 431000
Terms of Trade 100.40
Index Points
106 107 107 110 101
Foreign Direct Investment 4934000.00
USD Thousand
7218087 5910932 8370000 6236257 9040000
Capital Flows 4217.80
USD Million
12117 9052 12300 4249 14800
Tourism Revenues 1393700.00
USD Million
1500000 1272312 1600000 1260742 1920000
Tourist Arrivals 1366100.00
1710000 1072000 2420000 1067300 2890000
Gold Reserves 104.40
Tonnes
104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.61
0.2 0.7 0.2 0.72 0.25
Weapons Sales 587.00
USD Million
590 590 590 550 560
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.00
percent
38 38 38 39 40
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-2.9 -2.02 -2.9 -1.89 -3.2
Government Budget Value -1766.00
KRW Billion
-161110 12383 6000 16732 0
Government Spending 59609.00
KRW Billion
57725 58683 59812 57689 63393
Government Revenues 114632.00
KRW Billion
92400 272184 371000 279080 396000
Fiscal Expenditure 116397.00
KRW Billion
253510 259801 365000 262348 396000
Military Expenditure 37559.90
USD Million
41430 37790 37922 38069 39254
Asylum Applications 652.00
Persons
580 596 850 596 950
Government Spending To Gdp 32.26
percent
34.5 32.32 34.5 32.35 36
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 77.00
Index Points
83 73.29 82 73.11 83
Manufacturing PMI 48.40
49.8 49.5 50.8 51 50.9
Industrial Production -4.30
percent
3.1 -2.42 4.6 -2.53 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -2.50
percent
0.1 0.35 1.2 0.35 1.7
Manufacturing Production -4.70
percent
1.9 1.75 1.8 0.63 1.1
Capacity Utilization 102.40
Index Points
102 102 103 103 105
New Orders 8007114.00
KRW Million
6503908 6425229 4400000 6394898 5110000
Changes in Inventories 41.40
KRW Billion
1351 -2884 1085 -2828 5030
Bankruptcies 50.00
Companies
45 37.53 48 37.67 58
Car Registrations 135936.00
124434 126051 145000 112498 155000
Leading Economic Index 112.30
Index Points
113 112 113 113 114
Internet Speed 28553.69
KBps
27512 27602 27646 27643 27650
IP Addresses 25814048.00
IP
25842160 25832626 25854401 25856443 25872530
Mining Production -10.30
percent
-1.5 -3.68 2.75 -3.04 4.7
Steel Production 6095.40
Thousand Tonnes
5730 5779 6220 5798 6410
Cement Production 5221.00
Thousands of Tonnes
6400 5181 6280 5244 6540
Coincident Index 108.70
Index Points
108 109 108 109 110
Competitiveness Index 5.07
Points
5.05 5.05 5.1 5.08 5.3
Competitiveness Rank 26.00
26 26 24 26 21
Car Production 4114913.00
4000000 4000000 4000000 4150000 4250000
Ease of Doing Business 4.00
4 4 4 4 3
Electricity Production 23281.55
Gigawatt-hour
23878 24221 23000 24223 24300
Corruption Index 54.00
Points
63 54 63 54 68
Corruption Rank 51.00
33 51 33 51 30
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 107.00
Index Points
108 107 107 107 109
Retail Sales MoM 2.70
percent
0.1 0.34 0.5 0.33 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 7.00
percent
4.2 4.23 4.5 4.11 6
Consumer Spending 189747.30
KRW Billion
188206 189310 193947 188452 205559
Disposable Personal Income 1722492.80
KRW Billion
1630735 1769493 1795431 1812463 1990908
Personal Savings 8.80
percent
9.8 8.34 9.8 8.34 11.4
Consumer Credit 1450893.90
KRW Billion
1419438 1419438 1419438 1419438 1419438
Bank Lending Rate 3.67
percent
3.67 3.92 3.92 3.92 4.42
Households Debt To Gdp 94.40
percent of GDP
94 96.17 96.48 96.68 97.64
Gasoline Prices 1.45
USD/Liter
1.41 1.33 1.25 1.18 0.82
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 103.50
Index points
102 103 102 103 104
Home Ownership Rate 56.80
percent
55 56.96 55 57.07 55.8
Construction Orders 5180957.00
KRW Million
5740000 6517219 10000000 5040270 9500000
Construction Output -6.30
percent
7.4 1.46 13.4 3.24 5.9
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 40 40 40
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 18.81
percent
18.81 18.81 18.81 19 16.76
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.40
percent
8.4 10.4 8.4 10.4 8.4
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.41
percent
8.4 8.37 8.4 8.36 8.4
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 35.90
mm
124 228 44.24 40.81 112
Temperature 1.64
celsius
16.03 23.22 7.23 1 12.13