South Korea - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Korea including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Korea economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.70 3.8 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 percent
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade 6331.21 5397 7200 5468 5492 1800 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.00 38 38 39 39 40 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1127.70
1141 1161 1183 1205 1296
Stock Market 2299.22
points
2196 2128 2063 2000 1765
Government Bond 10Y 2.55
percent
2.67 2.76 2.86 2.96 3.4
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 3
GDP 1530.75
USD Billion
1577 1577 1622 1622 1700
GDP Constant Prices 395932.80
KRW Billion
397815 402648 406623 397955 426755
Gross National Product 394081.60
KRW Billion
418317 434733 404722 411325 460760
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 128329.80
KRW Billion
127815 128101 131795 128473 135771
GDP per capita 26152.03
USD
26500 26500 26800 26800 28780
GDP per capita PPP 35938.37
USD
36653 36653 37400 37400 38201
GDP From Agriculture 7531.90
KRW Billion
7157 7271 7735 7389 7706
GDP From Construction 17957.40
KRW Billion
17913 17876 18442 17986 18946
GDP From Manufacturing 114019.80
KRW Billion
115341 115005 117098 113971 121890
GDP From Mining 511.60
KRW Billion
564 563 525 589 596
GDP From Public Administration 23692.70
KRW Billion
23632 24114 24332 23844 25557
GDP From Services 209158.30
KRW Billion
209498 213128 214806 210342 225887
GDP From Transport 13025.00
KRW Billion
13252 13474 13377 13171 14281
GDP From Utilities 7326.60
KRW Billion
7824 7966 7524 7803 8443
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent
3.8 3.8 3.9 4 4.1
Employed Persons 26798.00
Thousand
26778 27500 26775 26775 28700
Unemployed Persons 1018.00
Thousand
1023 1153 1033 1033 1280
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.80
percent
62.72 62.9 63.07 62.95 63
Labour Costs 145.80
Index Points
158 137 153 132 142
Productivity 109.70
Index Points
108 109 109 110 112
Wages 3917383.00
KRW/Month
3692000 3766000 3863000 3658000 4093000
Wages in Manufacturing 4562783.00
KRW/Month
3943000 4146000 4376000 3787000 4424000
Minimum Wages 7530.00
KRW/Hour
7530 7530 8200 8200 8800
Population 51.45
Million
51.61 51.2 51.7 51.75 52.26
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.10
percent
8.97 8.7 9.44 9.39 8.4
Employment Rate 61.40
percent
60.4 60.3 60.66 60.57 60.6
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50
percent
1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent
0.23 0.1 0.11 0.11 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.20
Index Points
105 105 106 106 110
Core Consumer Prices 104.38
Index Points
106 106 107 107 113
Core Inflation Rate 1.20
percent
2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.2
GDP Deflator 111.75
Index Points
113 130 112 110 146
Producer Prices 104.40
Index Points
106 106 107 107 111
Producer Prices Change 2.20
percent
2.9 3.1 2.8 2.68 1.9
Export Prices 85.68
Index Points
85.46 102 85.47 85.46 104
Import Prices 88.26
Index Points
88.32 95 88.51 88.52 103
Food Inflation 1.80
percent
2 2.2 2.5 1.85 2.9
Cpi Housing Utilities 101.73
Index Points
102 103 103 103 108
CPI Transportation 104.56
Index Points
103 104 105 107 109
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.69
percent
1.94 1.94 1.94 2.19 2.44
Money Supply M0 98808700.00
KRW Million
102052923 104242713 106428853 108603796 129710664
Money Supply M1 845332.40
KRW Billion
863038 900000 888079 900234 1160000
Money Supply M2 2616989.70
KRW Billion
2670751 2720000 2750317 2789307 3180000
Money Supply M3 3684424.70
KRW Billion
3768656 4050000 3892532 3954265 4750000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 400300.00
USD Million
402041 393000 403117 403256 411000
Loans to Private Sector 8064214.00
KRW Hundred Million
8155868 7958045 8320754 8401312 8320000
Deposit Interest Rate 1.67
percent
1.92 1.92 1.92 2.17 2.42
Private Debt To Gdp 253.50
percent
256 257 256 256 258
Central Bank Balance Sheet 492320.40
KRW Billion
490062 483000 490145 490151 506000
Foreign Stock Investment 7782.51
USD Hundreds of Millions
7792 7690 7663 7688 7675
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 6331.21
USD Million
5397 7200 5468 5492 1800
Exports 51221.18
USD Million
50374 48100 50341 50354 50800
Imports 44889.97
USD Million
44977 40900 44873 44861 49000
Current Account 8680.00
USD Million
6246 10680 6157 6164 9010
Current Account to GDP 5.60
percent
6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.8
External Debt 433886.70
USD Million
447646 426000 454801 457799 431000
Terms of Trade 98.60
Index Points
96.76 107 96.57 96.54 101
Foreign Direct Investment 10820000.00
USD Thousand
4468196 8370000 4975973 6831924 9040000
Capital Flows 6862.30
USD Million
9052 12300 6136 6136 14800
Tourism Revenues 1278700.00
USD Million
1300365 1600000 1277037 1273237 1920000
Tourist Arrivals 1238021.00
1210500 2420000 1188000 1173900 2890000
Gold Reserves 104.40
Tonnes
104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.61
0.7 0.2 0.72 0.69 0.25
Weapons Sales 587.00
USD Million
590 590 550 590 560
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.00
percent
38 38 39 39 40
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-1.97 -2.9 -1.99 -1.97 -3.2
Government Budget Value 8670.00
KRW Billion
6081 6000 6799 6235 0
Government Spending 59609.00
KRW Billion
58683 59812 61218 58435 63393
Government Revenues 202793.00
KRW Billion
225215 371000 213954 214168 396000
Fiscal Expenditure 194123.00
KRW Billion
219133 365000 207155 207933 396000
Military Expenditure 37559.90
USD Million
38184 38312 38508 38704 40652
Asylum Applications 652.00
Persons
625 850 625 625 950
Government Spending To Gdp 32.26
percent
32.32 34.5 32.35 32.32 36
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 80.00
Index Points
79.79 82 80.39 80.45 83
Manufacturing PMI 49.80
49.5 50.8 51 51.1 50.9
Industrial Production 0.90
percent
-0.03 4.6 0.08 0.03 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 1.10
percent
0.37 1.2 0.37 0.37 1.7
Manufacturing Production 0.80
percent
-0.11 1.8 0 -0.05 1.1
Capacity Utilization 102.50
Index Points
102 103 103 104 105
New Orders 8100104.00
KRW Million
7054930 4400000 6790348 6750681 5110000
Changes in Inventories 41.40
KRW Billion
1477 1085 2102 2252 5030
Bankruptcies 39.00
Companies
36.57 48 38.1 37.83 58
Car Registrations 130625.00
126051 145000 112498 121072 155000
Leading Economic Index 112.70
Index Points
112 113 113 114 114
Internet Speed 28553.69
KBps
27602 27646 27643 27662 27650
IP Addresses 25814048.00
IP
25832626 25854401 25856443 25884415 25872530
Mining Production -10.30
percent
-3.75 2.75 -3.07 -2.94 4.7
Steel Production 6227.06
Thousand Tonnes
5971 6220 6032 6042 6410
Cement Production 5221.00
Thousands of Tonnes
5169 6280 5189 5212 6540
Coincident Index 109.20
Index Points
109 108 109 109 110
Competitiveness Index 5.07
Points
5.06 5.1 5.07 5.07 5.3
Competitiveness Rank 26.00
25 24 25 25 21
Car Production 4114913.00
4000000 4000000 4150000 4150000 4250000
Ease of Doing Business 4.00
5 4 7 7 3
Electricity Production 23472.44
Gigawatt-hour
23641 23000 23625 23301 24300
Corruption Index 54.00
Points
54 63 54 54 68
Corruption Rank 51.00
48 33 46 45 30
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 106.00
Index Points
107 107 107 106 109
Retail Sales MoM -1.00
percent
0.38 0.5 0.34 0.34 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 4.60
percent
4.83 4.5 4.8 4.8 6
Consumer Spending 189747.30
KRW Billion
189310 193947 194870 190523 205559
Disposable Personal Income 1722492.80
KRW Billion
1769493 1795431 1812463 1829495 1990908
Personal Savings 8.80
percent
8.34 9.8 8.34 8.23 11.4
Consumer Credit 1468047.00
KRW Billion
1520511 1549149 1566704 1594483 1790721
Bank Lending Rate 3.68
percent
3.93 3.93 3.93 4.18 4.43
Households Debt To Gdp 94.80
percent of GDP
95.73 95.98 96.16 96.33 96.98
Gasoline Prices 1.44
USD/Liter
1.36 1.29 1.22 1.15 0.64
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 103.70
Index points
104 102 105 105 104
Home Ownership Rate 56.80
percent
56.96 55 57.07 57.02 55.8
Construction Orders 4609639.00
KRW Million
6517219 10000000 5040270 6040191 9500000
Construction Output 0.00
percent
-1.63 13.4 -0.05 0.81 5.9
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 40 40 40
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 18.81
percent
18.81 18.81 19 19 16.76
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.40
percent
10.34 8.4 10.38 10.39 8.4
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.41
percent
8.43 8.4 8.43 8.42 8.4
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 35.90
mm
228 44.24 40.81 116 112
Temperature 1.64
celsius
23.22 7.23 1 21.13 12.13