South Korea | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Korea including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Korea economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.5 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.80 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 7300.00 6179 7703 8900 8630 17300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 38.60 39 38 38 38.65 44 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1093.32 1130 1120 1110 1098 972 [+]
Stock Market 2533.99 2370 2350 2320 2300 2040 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.57 2.4 2.43 2.45 2.48 2.74 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.5 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.60 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.7 3 percent [+]
GDP 1411.25 1460 1503 1503 1503 1600 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 392067.20 387136 389846 397514 402133 420903 KRW Billion [+]
Gross National Product 399158.80 426000 412000 415000 390445 475000 KRW Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 126109.20 120000 119000 125000 128428 134000 KRW Billion [+]
GDP per capita 25458.90 25911 26007 26102 26197 26913 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 34985.80 35870 35695 35816 35936 38201 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 6720.50 6710 7400 6980 7065 7108 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 17847.70 18400 18880 19200 17901 21000 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 113516.90 110000 111740 111540 116379 116900 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 560.80 600 610 620 608 648 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 23242.90 23100 22400 22500 23680 24900 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Services 206122.90 206702 209100 209300 210441 224801 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 13091.60 12960 13120 13200 13281 14000 KRW Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 7833.50 7609 8010 7774 7988 8886 KRW Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 26593.00 26900 26980 27000 26609 28700 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 997.00 1101 1026 1025 1025 1280 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.30 62.8 61.5 63.9 61.09 63 percent [+]
Labour Costs 148.10 139 153 135 139 151 Index Points [+]
Productivity 97.60 97 97 97.13 96.78 97.3 Index Points [+]
Wages 3332086.00 3621741 3782260 3561540 3692920 4093364 KRW/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 3589196.00 4006388 4247382 3697952 3943470 4424766 KRW/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 6470.00 6470 6700 6700 6700 7100 KRW/Hour [+]
Population 50.80 51 51.2 51.2 51.08 51.37 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 55.5 60 55 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 55.5 60 55 60 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.70 8.5 11.1 10.3 8.19 8.4 percent [+]
Employment Rate 61.30 60.3 60.4 61.5 59.59 60.6 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.80 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.1 0.34 0.37 0.39 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.40 104 105 105 104 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.49 105 106 106 103 113 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 110.74 118 120 122 112 146 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 102.81 104 106 107 103 114 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.60 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.91 1.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 87.17 91 93 95 86.57 104 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 83.17 86 88 90 81.76 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.70 3.2 3 2.9 2.5 2.9 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 101.86 103 103 104 101 108 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.60 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.89 3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 97426600.00 91639058 91638999 91605979 91565949 91193094 KRW Million [+]
Money Supply M1 824690.80 829000 811761 811537 811138 1160000 KRW Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2492855.70 2550000 2517733 2528614 2536922 3180000 KRW Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 3485867.80 3690000 3553440 3573798 3590088 4750000 KRW Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 384460.00 386000 386788 377510 386488 411000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7788424.00 7866244 7904821 7921253 7925102 9320000 KRW Hundred Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.56 1 1.5 1.5 2.54 3.5 percent [+]
Private Debt To Gdp 253.50 252 252 249 250 244 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 474760.30 498000 499000 500000 474372 536000 KRW Billion [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 7128.58 7169 7193 7168 7139 6835 USD Hundreds of Millions [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 7300.00 6179 7703 8900 8630 17300 USD Million [+]
Exports 45000.00 43717 47836 48900 47353 50800 USD Million [+]
Imports 37700.00 37538 40133 40133 40518 49000 USD Million [+]
Current Account 12205.00 9450 12500 8700 6118 9010 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 7.00 7 6.2 6.2 4.47 5.8 percent [+]
External Debt 407340.70 400000 378000 380000 407495 461000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 104.80 105 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 3991000.00 8160000 4131546 5378218 4186374 9040000 USD Thousand [+]
Capital Flows 12748.40 11700 10117 12117 5660 14800 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1209500.00 1380000 1600000 1500000 1110349 1920000 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1078653.00 1480000 1294735 1710000 990000 2890000 [+]
Gold Reserves 104.40 103 102 101 99.91 90.62 Tonnes [+]
Weapons Sales 534.00 283 220 220 250 260 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.64 0.42 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.60 39 38 38 38.65 44 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -3.5 -2.9 -2.9 -0.38 -3.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 17381.00 9095 6172 5133 5218 -4300 KRW Billion [+]
Government Spending 58078.80 57384 57698 57931 58152 59117 KRW Billion [+]
Government Revenues 281785.00 364000 130924 92400 138397 396000 KRW Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 264403.00 353000 128284 131410 131636 396000 KRW Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 37264.60 37983 41430 41430 38527 39657 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 652.00 810 618 580 592 950 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 32.30 34 34.5 34.5 31.7 36 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 81.00 79 82 83 84.37 83 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.20 50.3 50.2 49.8 49.52 50.9 [+]
Industrial Production 8.40 1.7 3.8 3.1 5.56 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 0.8 0.62 0.1 0.62 1.7 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.70 2.4 3.7 1.9 5.72 1.1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 114.00 114 115 115 115 115 Index Points [+]
New Orders 8382106.00 4090671 5691134 5483518 5298666 5110000 KRW Million [+]
Changes in Inventories -2400.70 -2404 870 1806 1825 5030 KRW Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 33.00 52 41 45 242 58 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 102012.00 139000 145424 164434 117553 155000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 133.20 131 135 133 135 146 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 28553.69 26012 25646 25086 24597 21539 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 25814048.00 25682380 25467875 25265363 25103683 23913005 IP [+]
Steel Production 5880.00 6150 6200 5730 5950 6410 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -20.80 3.5 2.8 -1.5 -2.27 4.7 percent [+]
Cement Production 5366.00 6100 5700 6400 4560 6540 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Coincident Index 126.60 126 126 126 126 126 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.07 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.3 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 26.00 25 24 24 24 21 [+]
Corruption Index 53.00 60 63 63 52 68 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 52.00 34 33 33 48 30 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 4.00 4 6 4 8 3 [+]
Electricity Production 23629.10 24304 22919 23878 22854 24300 Gigawatt-hour [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 109.00 106 107 106 100 102 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 3.10 0.1 0.33 0.1 0.33 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 8.30 5.2 6.58 4.2 6.23 6 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 186427.00 187000 188000 186000 188259 201000 KRW Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1632613.90 1689829 1704337 1630735 1733355 1849979 KRW Billion [+]
Personal Savings 9.30 9 9.8 9.8 9.77 11.4 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1388291.40 1425219 1439973 1455504 1467805 1526354 KRW Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.46 3.5 3.81 3.4 4.2 3.7 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.35 1.28 1.26 1.19 1.19 1.1 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 93.00 93.72 93.3 94 93.83 93.37 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 102.40 102 102 102 102 104 Index points [+]
Construction Orders 6264830.00 8650000 7150000 8740000 4239112 8000000 KRW Million [+]
Construction Output 16.10 16.8 22 7.4 5.19 5.9 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 56.80 54.4 55 55 56.2 55.8 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00 22 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.00 37 37 37 37 36 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 16.76 16.76 16.76 16.76 15.53 16.76 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 8.40 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.25 8.4 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.40 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.36 8.4 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 35.00 115 115 115 115 115 mm [+]
Temperature 1.00 2.18 5.06 19.44 16.37 3.63 celsius [+]