South Korea - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for South Korea including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Korea economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 0.7 0.8 1.5 0.9 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 percent
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade 5783.00 7703 8900 5445 14800 17300 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.60 38 38 38.75 38 44 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1065.95
1083 1103 1123 1144 1232
Stock Market 2520.26
points
2463 2406 2350 2296 1903
Government Bond 10Y 2.62
percent
2.43 2.45 2.48 2.39 2.74
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50
percent
0.7 0.8 1.5 0.9 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.80
percent
2.9 3.1 2.7 2.8 3
GDP 1411.25
USD Billion
1503 1503 1503 1503 1600
GDP Constant Prices 392067.20
KRW Billion
389846 397514 402133 404041 420903
Gross National Product 412381.20
KRW Billion
412000 415000 404095 444000 475000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 126109.20
KRW Billion
119000 125000 128279 123000 134000
GDP per capita 25458.90
USD
25453 25606 25759 25911 26913
GDP per capita PPP 34985.80
USD
34949 35157 35365 36680 38201
GDP From Agriculture 6720.50
KRW Billion
7400 6980 6854 6852 7108
GDP From Construction 17847.70
KRW Billion
18880 19200 17901 19100 21000
GDP From Manufacturing 113516.90
KRW Billion
111740 111540 116379 113000 116900
GDP From Mining 560.80
KRW Billion
610 620 588 635 648
GDP From Public Administration 23242.90
KRW Billion
22400 22500 23680 23600 24900
GDP From Services 206122.90
KRW Billion
209100 209300 210441 212407 224801
GDP From Transport 13091.60
KRW Billion
13120 13200 13281 13200 14000
GDP From Utilities 7833.50
KRW Billion
8010 7774 7988 8693 8886
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60
percent
3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1
Employed Persons 26726.00
Thousand
26980 27000 26747 27500 28700
Unemployed Persons 1007.00
Thousand
1009 1009 1009 1153 1280
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.30
percent
61.5 63.9 60.98 62.9 63
Labour Costs 129.60
Index Points
153 135 139 143 151
Productivity 98.50
Index Points
97.44 97.68 97.23 96.7 97.3
Wages 3575612.00
KRW/Month
3782000 3561000 3692000 3766000 4093000
Wages in Manufacturing 3874983.00
KRW/Month
4247000 3697000 3943000 4146000 4424000
Minimum Wages 7530.00
KRW/Hour
7530 7530 7530 7530 8800
Population 50.80
Million
51.2 51.2 51.08 51.2 51.37
Retirement Age Women 60.00
56 60 55 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
56 60 55 60 60
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.30
percent
11.1 10.3 8.26 8.7 8.4
Employment Rate 61.30
percent
60.4 61.5 59.59 60.3 60.6
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50
percent
1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
-0.06 0.3 0.13 0.1 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.04
Index Points
105 105 103 103 103
Core Consumer Prices 103.38
Index Points
106 106 104 108 113
Core Inflation Rate 1.50
percent
1.9 2.1 2.5 3.4 3.2
GDP Deflator 113.59
Index Points
120 122 114 130 146
Producer Prices 103.02
Index Points
106 107 103 109 114
Producer Prices Change 3.10
percent
3.3 3.5 3.29 4.1 1.9
Export Prices 84.50
Index Points
93 95 85.02 102 104
Import Prices 82.34
Index Points
88 90 81.47 95 103
Food Inflation 0.20
percent
3 2.9 2.5 3.2 2.9
CPI Transportation 102.48
Index Points
103 104 102 106 108
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.64
percent
1.3 1.5 1.86 2 3
Money Supply M0 95215800.00
KRW Million
95882236 95754151 95702978 95662792 95326430
Money Supply M1 826217.20
KRW Billion
833359 834092 834131 900000 1160000
Money Supply M2 2519950.90
KRW Billion
2562226 2586927 2606678 2720000 3180000
Money Supply M3 3518460.80
KRW Billion
3561679 3587229 3607796 4050000 4750000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 389270.00
USD Million
391716 377510 393301 393000 411000
Loans to Private Sector 7814354.00
KRW Hundred Million
7811788 7800654 7787662 8458045 9320000
Deposit Interest Rate 1.56
percent
1.5 1.5 2.13 1.5 3.5
Private Debt To Gdp 253.50
percent
253 249 253 252 244
Central Bank Balance Sheet 476407.40
KRW Billion
499000 500000 474573 503000 536000
Foreign Stock Investment 7153.23
USD Hundreds of Millions
7227 7205 7178 7149 6877
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 5783.00
USD Million
7703 8900 5445 14800 17300
Exports 49068.00
USD Million
47836 48900 48143 48100 50800
Imports 43285.00
USD Million
40133 40133 42479 40900 49000
Current Account 7430.00
USD Million
12500 8700 5040 10680 9010
Current Account to GDP 7.00
percent
6.2 6.2 5.64 6.2 5.8
External Debt 409127.30
USD Million
378000 380000 404901 456000 461000
Terms of Trade 104.80
Index Points
106 106 106 104 106
Foreign Direct Investment 9361000.00
USD Thousand
4729521 6291638 4212425 8370000 9040000
Capital Flows 10476.80
USD Million
10117 12117 7167 12300 14800
Tourism Revenues 1071100.00
USD Million
1600000 1500000 1036596 1600000 1920000
Tourist Arrivals 1093217.00
1294735 1710000 1037700 2420000 2890000
Gold Reserves 104.40
Tonnes
104 103 102 101 93.23
Weapons Sales 534.00
USD Million
220 220 271 220 260
Terrorism Index 0.61
0.2 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.60
percent
38 38 38.75 38 44
Government Budget -2.40
percent of GDP
-2.9 -2.9 -1.07 -2.9 -3.2
Government Budget Value 29177.00
KRW Billion
13671 6936 4639 6000 -4300
Government Spending 58078.80
KRW Billion
59310 59987 60491 60991 63375
Government Revenues 375562.00
KRW Billion
144616 92400 139850 371000 396000
Fiscal Expenditure 346385.00
KRW Billion
154183 130251 132611 365000 396000
Military Expenditure 37264.60
USD Million
41430 41430 37851 37983 39657
Asylum Applications 652.00
Persons
618 580 592 850 950
Government Spending To Gdp 32.30
percent
34.5 34.5 31.79 34.5 36
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 81.00
Index Points
82 83 81.61 82 83
Manufacturing PMI 49.90
50.2 49.8 49.5 50.8 50.9
Industrial Production -1.60
percent
3.8 3.1 3.34 4.6 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 0.20
percent
0.62 0.1 0.61 1.2 1.7
Manufacturing Production -1.80
percent
3.7 1.9 3.41 1.8 1.1
Capacity Utilization 114.30
Index Points
114 114 114 114 114
New Orders 5926242.00
KRW Million
5994188 5740375 5533125 4400000 5110000
Changes in Inventories -2400.70
KRW Billion
870 1806 1825 1085 5030
Bankruptcies 33.00
Companies
41 45 242 48 58
Car Registrations 113475.00
Cars
145424 164434 113682 145000 155000
Leading Economic Index 133.70
Index Points
135 133 135 136 146
Internet Speed 28553.69
KBps
25646 25086 24597 24186 21539
IP Addresses 25814048.00
IP
25467875 25265363 25103683 24953949 23913005
Steel Production 5650.00
Thousand Tonnes
6200 5730 5820 6220 6410
Mining Production 4.83
percent
2.8 -1.5 -1.7 2.75 4.7
Cement Production 5825.00
Thousands of Tonnes
5700 6400 4533 6280 6540
Coincident Index 126.60
Index Points
127 127 127 127 126
Competitiveness Index 5.07
Points
5.05 5.05 5.05 5.1 5.3
Competitiveness Rank 26.00
24 24 24 24 21
Corruption Index 53.00
Points
63 63 54 63 68
Corruption Rank 52.00
33 33 50 33 30
Ease of Doing Business 4.00
5 4 6 4 3
Electricity Production 23353.55
Gigawatt-hour
22961 23878 22839 23000 24300
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 111.00
Index Points
107 106 101 105 102
Retail Sales MoM 5.60
percent
0.12 0.1 0.34 0.5 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 6.50
percent
5.25 4.2 5.61 4.5 6
Consumer Spending 186427.00
KRW Billion
188000 186000 188259 195000 201000
Disposable Personal Income 1632613.90
KRW Billion
1633486 1630735 1671048 1689829 1849979
Personal Savings 9.30
percent
9.8 9.8 9.73 9.8 11.4
Consumer Credit 1419127.70
KRW Billion
1470950 1493680 1514882 1534041 1633186
Bank Lending Rate 3.55
percent
3.85 3.4 4.25 3.55 3.7
Gasoline Prices 1.45
USD/Liter
1.45 1.41 1.35 1.31 1.1
Households Debt To Gdp 93.80
percent of GDP
93.3 94 94.69 94.72 94.38
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 102.60
Index points
103 102 103 102 104
Construction Orders 4942629.00
KRW Million
7150000 8740000 3662451 8120000 8000000
Construction Output -1.00
percent
22 7.4 1.13 13.4 5.9
Home Ownership Rate 56.80
percent
55 55 56.62 55 55.8
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.00
percent
37 37 37 37 36
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 16.76
percent
16.76 16.76 16 16.76 16.76
Social Security Rate For Companies 8.40
percent
8.4 8.4 8.08 8.4 8.4
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.40
percent
8.4 8.4 8.34 8.4 8.4
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 35.90
mm
40.73 124 228 44.24 112
Temperature 1.64
celsius
1 16.03 23.22 7.23 12.13