Russia Jobless Rate Below Forecasts

Russia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 2.2% in January, unchanged from December and below market expectations of 2.3%. The persistently low unemployment highlights a widespread labor shortage, exacerbated since Moscow deployed its military to Ukraine in February 2022. The number of unemployed rose slightly to 1.66 million from 1.643 million in December. Authorities project that the labor market will stay tight for years, forecasting a shortfall of 3.1 million workers by 2030.

Russia’s unemployment rate ticked up to 2.2% in December 2025 from 2.1% in the previous month, in line with market expectations. Despite the slight increase, unemployment remains near record-low levels, underscoring persistent labor shortages across the economy since the deployment of military forces in February 2022. The number of unemployed rose modestly to 1.643 million from 1.636 million in November, while the overall labor force was unchanged at 76.3 million. Employment stood at 74.7 million, leaving the employment rate steady at 61.7%. Meanwhile, the number of officially registered unemployed remained broadly stable at around 0.3 million. Looking ahead, Russian authorities expect labor market pressures to intensify, with the country facing an estimated shortfall of roughly 3.1 million workers by 2030.

Russia’s unemployment rate fell to a record low of 2.1% in November 2025, slightly below analysts’ expectations of 2.2%, continuing a trend of historically low joblessness. The total number of unemployed declined to 1.636 million from 1.657 million in October and was well below 1.797 million a year earlier. Officially registered unemployment edged up slightly to 0.352 million from 0.351 million. The tight labor market reflects a widespread shortage affecting all sectors, exacerbated by military recruitment and defense industry hiring following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as well as emigration. Authorities project the labor shortfall could widen further in coming years, potentially reaching 2.5–5 million workers, posing challenges for economic growth and workforce availability across civilian industries.