Russia Manufacturing PMI Dips to 3-Month Low

Russia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in March from 49.5, marking the lowest since December and a tenth straight month of drop in factory activity. Output declined at the sharpest pace in three months, while new orders shrank the most since last October. Foreign demand remained weak, though the pace of decline eased slightly. Buying levels plunged, posting the steepest fall in four years, and employment dropped for a fourth month. Backlogs fell further, with depletion accelerating despite supply delays from logistical disruptions. On prices, input cost pressures intensified, rising at the second-fastest pace in over a year on higher fuel and supplier prices, though still below the long-term trend. Firms passed on some costs, but output price inflation slowed to a marginal, historically subdued rate. Lastly, business confidence weakened for a second month, hitting its lowest in nearly four years amid fragile demand and solvency concerns.

The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5 in February 2026 from 49.4 in January, signaling only a marginal decline in sector health and marking the softest downturn in the current nine-month sequence of contraction. Production fell at its slowest pace in 12 months, supported by broadly stable new order inflows. Export orders, however, fell faster, reflecting muted international demand. Employment declined to its fastest since June 2025, while backlogs of work fell modestly for the 13th month in a row. Input purchases and inventories contracted at the quickest pace in four months as firms used existing stocks to meet orders. Rates of input cost and output charge inflation eased notably from January’s VAT-driven highs, remaining below long-run averages. Business confidence slipped to one of the lowest levels in over three-and-a-half years, though some firms remained optimistic due to technology investments and hopes of stronger demand.

The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in January 2026 from 48.1 in December 2025. This marked the eighth consecutive month of contraction, but the mildest downturn in the sequence, as new orders declined only marginally amid improving demand and inflows of small orders, while foreign sales fell slightly. Meanwhile, output contracted at the slowest pace in the current 11-month sequence, reflecting a less pronounced decline in new sales. Employment fell at the fastest rate since last June, while firms continued to deplete their backlogs of work. Input buying continued to decline, although the pace of contraction slowed to a marginal rate. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated due to higher costs following the recent VAT hike. As a result, selling prices rose as firms sought to pass on higher costs to customers. Finally, business sentiment weakened to its lowest level in nearly three-and-a-half years.