Russia Manufacturing Nears Stabilization

The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5 in February 2026 from 49.4 in January, signaling only a marginal decline in sector health and marking the softest downturn in the current nine-month sequence of contraction. Production fell at its slowest pace in 12 months, supported by broadly stable new order inflows. Export orders, however, fell faster, reflecting muted international demand. Employment declined to its fastest since June 2025, while backlogs of work fell modestly for the 13th month in a row. Input purchases and inventories contracted at the quickest pace in four months as firms used existing stocks to meet orders. Rates of input cost and output charge inflation eased notably from January’s VAT-driven highs, remaining below long-run averages. Business confidence slipped to one of the lowest levels in over three-and-a-half years, though some firms remained optimistic due to technology investments and hopes of stronger demand.

The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in January 2026 from 48.1 in December 2025. This marked the eighth consecutive month of contraction, but the mildest downturn in the sequence, as new orders declined only marginally amid improving demand and inflows of small orders, while foreign sales fell slightly. Meanwhile, output contracted at the slowest pace in the current 11-month sequence, reflecting a less pronounced decline in new sales. Employment fell at the fastest rate since last June, while firms continued to deplete their backlogs of work. Input buying continued to decline, although the pace of contraction slowed to a marginal rate. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated due to higher costs following the recent VAT hike. As a result, selling prices rose as firms sought to pass on higher costs to customers. Finally, business sentiment weakened to its lowest level in nearly three-and-a-half years.

The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48.1 in December 2025, down from 48.3 in November. It marked the seventh consecutive month of contraction, as output contracted at the fastest pace since March 2022, alongside a continued reduction in new orders amid weak demand conditions. New export orders also continued to decline sharply, broadly in line with November’s pace. In response, manufacturers reduced employment, with job shedding remaining slight but the fastest since September, amid lower production. Input buying weakened as output expectations for the year ahead softened. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated to a nine-month high, driven by higher supplier and raw material prices. As a result, output prices also rose to the second-sharpest since May, despite easing from November, as firms sought to pass on higher costs to customers. Finally, business sentiment weakened to the lowest since May 2022, reflecting concerns over subdued demand conditions.