Russia Inflation Rate at Near 3-Year Low

The headline inflation rate in Russia rose to 6.0% in June of 2026 from 5.3% in the previous month, the highest since January, and contrasting with most major economies that are seeing consumer inflation slow after the initial surge driven by the war in the Middle East. Inflation for motor gasoline was at 19.9% in the period, aligned with Russia's most aggressive fuel shortage since the end of the Soviet Union. The global supply shock due to export halts from the Middle East were magnified with a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. In the meantime, inflation remained high for services at 10.6%. On the other hand, food inflation was low compared to other sectors of the economy, at 3.4%. From the previous month, the Russian CPI rose by 0.9%.

Russia's headline annual inflation rate fell for the second month to 5.3% in May 2026, down from 5.6% in April and below market estimates of 5.4%. This was the lowest reading since August 2023, but it remains well above the CBR’s target of 4%. Food price growth slowed to 2.9%, compared to 4% in April, as fruit and vegetable prices continued to decline (-10.4% vs -6.6%). Meanwhile, prices advanced faster for services (10.1% vs 9.9%) and non-food products (4.2% vs 3.9%). The core rate edged down to 4.9% in May from 5% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, after a 0.1% increase in the prior month, in line with forecasts.

Russia's headline annual inflation rate eased to a four-month low of 5.6% in April 2026 from 5.9% previously and below the expected 5.8%. Still, inflation remains well above the CBR’s target of 4%. Price growth moderated for food products (4% vs 5% in March), helped by a steeper decline in the prices of fruits and vegetables (-6.6% vs -2.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation remained elevated (9.9% vs 10%) and prices for non-food products picked up (3.9% vs 3.5%), mainly on account of automobile gasoline (12.3%); medicines (9.1%) and tobacco (7.5%). On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up by 0.1% in April, following a 0.6% rise in March, slightly below market forecasts of a 0.3% increase.