Russia Industrial Activity Unexpectedly Recovers

Russia’s industrial production rose 1.8% year-on-year in September 2026, rebounding from a 0.6% decline in August and beating market expectations of a 0.1% contraction. This marked the strongest growth since April, driven by a sharp recovery in manufacturing output, which increased 5.6% after falling 0.5% in the previous month. Meanwhile, growth in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation slowed to 0.9% from 6.9%. Elsewhere, contractions deepened in mining, where output fell 4.1% following a 1.3% decline, and in electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply, which dropped 3.2% after a 1.2% decrease. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production increased 1.1%, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in August.

Industrial production in Russia declined 0.6% year-on-year in August 2026, reversing a 0.4% increase in July and contrasting with market expectations of a 0.5% gain. Activity remained in contraction in mining, although the decline eased to 1.3% from 2.6%, while output in electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply fell 1.2%, following a 4% decline in the previous month. Manufacturing output also contracted by 0.5%, reversing a 2.4% increase in July. Meanwhile, production growth in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation accelerated to 6.9% from 2.8%. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production declined 0.3%, reversing a 0.1% increase in July.

Industrial production in Russia rose 0.4% year-on-year in July 2026, slowing from a 0.6% increase in June and falling short of market expectations for 0.7% growth. Activity in electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply contracted further, falling 4% after a 1.4% decline in the previous month, while manufacturing growth eased to 2.4% from 2.8%. Mining output remained in contraction, declining 2.6%. Meanwhile, activity in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation rebounded, rising 2.8% after a 1.2% decline in June. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production edged up 0.1%, following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in June. In the first seven months of 2026, industrial output increased 0.1% compared with the same period a year earlier.