Russia Industrial Output Growth Misses Forecasts

Russia's industrial output climbed by 3.7% year-on-year in December 2025, after a revised 0.4% increase in November, beating analysts’ forecast of a 1% drop. This marked the strongest increase in industrial activity since December 2024, thanks to manufacturing (7.8% vs 1% in November), notably the production of other vehicles and equipment (+28.6%); tobacco products (+25.9%) and finished metal products, except machinery and equipment (+21.5%). On the other hand, output declined for mining (-2.8% vs 0.4%); electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (-0.7% vs -3.4%) and water and sanitation services (-6.2% vs -3.2%). On a monthly basis, industrial production surged by 19%, following a 2.6% slump in the prior month. Considering the full year of 2025, industrial output rose by 1.3%, down markedly from a 5.1% jump in the previous year and below the government's forecast of 1.5%.

Industrial production in Russia rose by 1.5% year-on-year in April 2025, accelerating from a 0.8% increase in March and surpassing market forecasts of a 1.1% advance. This was the fastest growth in industrial activity since January, mainly supported by manufacturing (3% vs 4% in March), largely on account of medicines, electronics, and finished metal products. Additionally, output rebounded for electricity and gas supply (2.3% vs -2.1%), but continued to decline for water and sewage services (-3.3% vs -1.4%) and extraction of raw materials (-0.1% vs -4.1%). On a monthly basis, industrial output declined by 4.2% in April, following a 9.5% jump in the previous month. Considering the first four months of 2025, Russian industrial production grew by 1.2%, down sharply from 5.1% during the same period a year ago.

Industrial production in Russia rose by 0.8% from the previous year in March 2025, following a 0.2% increase in the prior month but missing market estimates of a 1.8% advance. The data showed that growth is now limited to sectors tied to military production or those replacing sanctioned imports, while other industries are either stagnating or declining. Across main categories, output rose faster for manufacturing (4% vs 3,2% in February), while declines continued in raw material extraction (-4.1% vs -4.9%), electricity and gas supply (-2.1% vs -3%), and water and sewage services (-1.4% vs -1.8%). On a monthly basis, industrial production jumped by 9.5%, rebounding sharply from a 0.4% decrease in the previous month.