Russia Government Budget Gap Widens in January-September

The Russian federal government recorded a budget deficit of RUB 5.2 trillion in January-September 2026, equivalent to 2.2% of GDP, up from RUB 3.5 trillion in the same period a year earlier, according to preliminary estimates from the Finance Ministry. The shortfall remains below the full-year target of RUB 7.3 trillion, or 3.2% of GDP. Federal expenditures climbed by 14.5% year-on-year to RUB 34.825 trillion, while revenues rose by 10% to RUB 29.639 trillion. Non-oil-and-gas revenues increased by 18.8% to RUB 24.168 trillion, partly offsetting a 17.2% decline in oil and gas revenues to RUB 5.471 trillion. The ministry attributed the drop in energy revenue partly to a lower average dollar exchange rate during the period and higher payments under the fuel price damping mechanism.

The Russian federal government recorded a budget shortfall of RUB 5.8 trillion in January-August 2026, or 2.5% of the GDP, up from RUB 3.9 trillion in the same period a year ago, according to preliminary estimates. The figure remains well above the full-year target of RUB 3.8 trillion, equivalent to 1.6% of GDP. Federal expenditures climbed by 14.7% year-on-year to RUB 31.724 trillion, while revenues rose by just 9.2% to RUB 25.929 trillion. Non-oil-and-gas revenue climbed by 18.1% to RUB 20.9 trillion, partly offsetting a 16.7% decline in oil and gas revenue to RUB 5 trillion. Russia posted a budget surplus of RUB 660 billion in August, its biggest monthly surplus in a year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data, driven in part by dividend payments from state-owned banks and companies.

The Russian federal government ran a budget deficit of RUB 5.73 trillion in January-June 2026, or 2.5% of the GDP, larger than RUB 3.39 trillion in the same period a year ago, according to preliminary estimates. Federal expenditures jumped by 16.1% year-on-year to RUB 24.35 trillion, while revenues rose by 5.8% to RUB 18.62 trillion.