Russia Federal Budget Gap Widens in January-February

The Russian federal government posted a budget deficit of RUB 3.449 trillion in January-February 2026, or 1.5% of the GDP, up from RUB 2.701 trillion in the same period a year ago, according to preliminary estimates. Federal revenues slipped by 10.8% year-on-year to RUB 4.767 trillion while expenditures rose by 5.8% to RUB 8.216 trillion.

The Russian federal government ran a budget deficit of 1.718 trillion rubles in January 2026, 252 billion rubles higher than the same period last year, according to preliminary estimates. Federal budget revenues totaled 2,362 trillion rubles, down 11.6% year-on-year, weighed down by a 50.2% drop in oil and gas revenues to 393 billion rubles amid lower oil prices. By contrast, non-oil and gas revenues rose 4.5% to 1.969 billion rubles, supported by an 18.5% increase in turnover taxes, including VAT. Federal expenditures amounted to 4.080 trillion rubles, down 1.4% year-on-year, reflecting a high base in January 2025 when spending surged due to early contract payments. The shortfall in oil and gas revenue was partly offset by National Welfare Fund transfers under the “budget rule,” ensuring the stability of the budget system despite volatility in energy receipts.

The Russian federal government posted a budget deficit of RUB 5.65 trillion in 2025, the largest since at least 1996 and up from RUB 3.47 trillion a year earlier, according to preliminary figures. This marked the fourth consecutive year of fiscal shortfall amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, as expenditures rose 6.8% to RUB 42.93 trillion. Meanwhile, revenues increased only 1.6% to RUB 37.28 trillion, constrained by a 24% decline in oil and gas revenues to a five-year low of RUB 8.48 trillion, driven by lower average oil prices and an increased discount on Russian crude amid tighter sanctions. By contrast, non-oil and gas revenues rose 12.6% year-on-year to RUB 24.9 trillion. Russia ran a fiscal deficit equal to 2.6% of GDP in 2025, the highest since 2020, in line with the revised target. The government raised the target twice after the original 0.5% goal was derailed by shrinking energy revenues and a strong rouble.