Russia Trade Surplus Declines Sharply

Russia posted a trade surplus of $6.6 billion in January of 2026, the third lowest balance since the Covid pandemic triggered a shock in global oil demand and narrowing sharply from the $7.4 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. Exports contracted by 9.1% from the previous year to $27.5 billion, the lowest in five years, due to lower crude oil prices and the gradual shun of cargoes by Indian refiners following the US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft. In turn, imports fell by 7.4% to $20.9 billion, the sharpest decline in eleven months, as a weakening domestic economy limited demand for goods.

Russia recorded a trade surplus of $8.6 billion in November of 2025, narrowing from the $12.3 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year to mark the lowest trade surplus since July of 2023. It was the second-lowest surplus since February of 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in shocks in global commodity markets and sweeping sanctions against the Russian economy. Exports contracted by 16.2% from the previous year to $32.9 billion, the sharpest decline in nearly two years, due to lower crude oil prices and the gradual shun of cargoes by Indian refiners following the US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft. In turn, imports fell by 3.1% to $26.1 billion, a fourth straight decline despite the strength in the ruble, as a weakening domestic economy limited demand for goods.

Russia’s trade surplus widened to $11.143 billion in October 2025 from $9.085 billion a year earlier, driven by a sharper drop in imports than exports. Imports fell 11.8% YoY to $25 billion, as weaker domestic demand from Russian consumers and businesses reduced purchases of foreign goods, even with a stronger ruble. Exports declined 3.4% to $38.1 billion, pressured by lower oil prices and softer commodity demand from China, a key trading partner. Sanctions and limited access to Western markets continued to constrain trade flows, while the imbalance reflects the country’s struggling economy, which is curbing imports more than it affects export revenue.