Romania Keeps Interest Rate Unchanged as Expected

The National Bank of Romania held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% in May 2026, as expected, citing high uncertainty from energy markets, fiscal consolidation and geopolitical tensions. In April 2026, inflation accelerated further to 10.71% from 9.9% in March, driven by higher gas, fuel and regulated prices, alongside oil price gains, base effects and rising rents for state housing. HICP inflation also increased to 9.5%. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to rise further in Q2 2026 due to energy shocks, before falling later in the year and gradually returning to target in 2027, assuming continued disinflation from weaker demand and fiscal tightening.

The National Bank of Romania held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% at its April 7, 2026 meeting, keeping the lending facility rate at 7.50% and the deposit facility rate at 5.50%. Annual inflation slowed to 9.31% in February from 9.69% in December 2025, driven by lower electricity and gas prices, though fuel and administered prices partially offset the decline. Core inflation edged down to 8.3% in February from 8.5% in December. Economic activity contracted 1.9% in Q4 2025, with annual GDP growth slowing to 0.2% from 1.7% in Q3. Employment declined but the ILO unemployment rate fell in January and February. The NBR expects inflation to rise through June 2026 on higher oil and gas prices before dropping sharply in Q3. The Middle East conflict and global energy crisis remain key risks to growth and inflation. The NBR stands ready to adjust policy as needed to ensure medium-term price stability.

The National Bank of Romania held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% in its second policy meeting of 2026, keeping borrowing costs steady since concluding its cutting cycle in August of 2024. The monetary authority noted that headline inflation slowed in the fourth quarter of the previous year due to lower fuel prices, while their preferred core inflation rate was steady at the turn of the year following its slight uptick in the earlier months. The data loosely maintained the inflationary backdrop in balance with the monetary conditions from the last year. Similarly, economy-wide employment declined in the previous quarter, but the ILO-standardized unemployment rate also inched down. The BNR continued to see an uncertain outlook due to geopolitical conflicts and global trade tensions, but its base case remained that inflation will fall sharply in the third quarter of this year to return to target by the first half of 2027.