Portugal GDP Stalls in Q1

The Portuguese GDP stalled in the first quarter of 2026, holding the 0.9% expansion from the earlier period, to reflect the strong impact of the war in the Middle East in the Portuguese economy, according to a flash estimate. There was a negative contribution in net external demand, aligned with the surging costs of oil that Portuguese refineries import and supply pressures on European natural gas and petroleum gas. Household consumption was also lower on the squeeze in domestic purchasing power. On the other hand, investment was higher in the period. From the previous year, the GDP expanded by 2.3%.

The Portuguese economy expanded 0.9% on quarter in Q4 2025, the strongest performance in a year, above initial estimates of 0.8% and compared to a downwardly revised 0.6% in Q3. The contribution of net external demand turned positive (+1.1 pp vs -0.9 pp), reflecting declines in both exports and imports of goods and services, with the decrease being more pronounced for imports. On the other hand, the contribution of domestic demand was -0.2 pp (compared with +1.5 pp in the previous quarter), driven by a decline in investment and a slowdown in final consumption expenditure. On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.9% in Q4, slowing from a downwardly revised 2.2% in Q3 but matching initial estimates. For the full year 2025, Portuguese GDP expanded 1.9%, slightly below 2.2% in 2024. Domestic demand supported the growth, driven by faster final consumption, while net external demand weighed more heavily, as exports of goods and services slowed more sharply than imports.

Portugal’s economy expanded 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.7% in the previous quarter and surpassing market expectations of 0.5%, according to a preliminary estimate. This marked the strongest quarterly pace in a year, supported by net external demand, amid a sharp decline in imports of goods and services, particularly crude oil. By contrast, domestic demand weighed on growth, reflecting a slump in investment and slower household consumption growth. On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.9% in Q4, down from 2.3% in Q3. For the full year 2025, Portuguese GDP expanded 1.9%, slightly below 2.1% in 2024.