Poland Inflation Rate Rises, Still Below Forecasts

The inflation rate in Poland rose by 3% year-on-year in March 2026 from an upwardly revised 2.4% in the previous month, according to flash estimates. This marked the highest reading in eight months, driven largely by a renewed increase in energy costs, particularly fuel prices, amid escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict. The rebound in inflation comes after a period of moderation and, although slightly below market expectations, signals a shift in the price environment as energy-driven pressures begin to re-emerge. Prices increased in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+2%), electricity, gas, and other fuels (+3.9%), and fuel and transport equipment (+8.5%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices grew 1% in March, following a revised flat reading in the preceding period.

The annual inflation rate in Poland eased to 2.1% in February 2026, unchanged from the downwardly revised 2.1% in the previous month, marking the lowest two-month level since March 2024, primarily due to last year’s high base effect. Prices remained unchanged for food and non-alcoholic beverages from last month’s 2.4%, as well as for alcoholic beverages and tobacco at 6.9%, and education at 6.1%. Meanwhile, costs rose for housing and utilities (4.3% vs 3.8% in January) and information and communication (4.3% vs 3.7%), while increasing at a slower pace for health (4.8% vs 5%), recreation, sports, and culture (2.4% vs 4.3%), and restaurants and accommodation services (4.6% vs 5.1%). In addition, deflation held steady in furnishings, household equipment, and maintenance (-1.3%), deepened for clothing and footwear (-3.4% vs -2.7%), and eased for transport (-5.7% vs -5.8%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices slowed to 0.3% in February from an upwardly revised 0.7% in January.

The annual inflation rate in Poland eased for the fourth month to a near two-year low of 2.2% in January 2026 from 2.4% in the prior month, primarily due to last year's high base effect. Still, the reading came slightly above forecasts of 2%. Food, housing, and energy bills were the main drivers of price increases, with food and non-alcoholic beverages up 2.4% year-on-year, housing 2.9%, and energy bills 3.4%. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco also rose 7.0% following excise tax hikes, while fuels fell 7.1%, moderating overall inflation. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.6% in January, after being flat in the previous month.