Norway Business Morale Weakens in Q1

Norway’s industrial confidence rose to 2.6 in Q2 2026, following an upwardly revised 1.4 in the previous quarter, though it remained below its long-term average of 2.9. The improvement came as total industrial production edged higher, driven by a strong increase in output among intermediate goods manufacturers. Producers of consumer goods was unchanged, while investment goods output continued to decline as reduced oil and gas investments weighed on demand. Employment remained broadly stable for a third consecutive quarter, while total order shrank amid weaker domestic and export demand, led by a sharp decline in capital goods orders. On the price front, input costs continued to rise faster than selling prices. Looking ahead, firms expect production, employment, order intake, and order backlogs to increase in the third quarter, despite anticipating further rises in input and selling prices.

Norway’s industrial confidence fell to 1.2 in Q1 2026, from 2.6 in the previous quarter, and bellow its long-term average of 2.9. Sentiment weakened among producers of capital goods, while producers of consumer goods reported unchanged production. Meanwhile, producers of intermediate goods contributed positively to overall confidence. New orders declined in export markets, while domestic orders remained steady. Employment conditions eased, with employment among producers of consumer goods declining, while producers of intermediate and capital goods reported unchanged employment levels. On the price front, industrial managers reported sustained price increases in both domestic and export markets, with stronger rises for consumer goods. Looking ahead, the general outlook for Q2 2026 remains positive, supported by confidence among intermediate producers, whereas producers of capital and consumer goods have weaker expectations.

Norway’s industrial confidence advanced to 2.6 in Q4 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.2 in Q3, though it remained below its long-term average of 2.9. Sentiment improved among producers of intermediate goods, while producers of consumer goods reported unchanged production. Meanwhile, producers of capital goods contributed negatively to the overall confidence. New orders declined across both export and domestic markets, although outlook still remained optimistic. On the price front, industrial managers reported sustained price increases in both domestic and export markets, with stronger rises for consumer goods. Employment conditions remained subdued, with producers of capital and intermediate goods reporting no change in employment levels. Looking ahead, the general outlook of Q1 of 2026 is positive, supported by confidence among intermediate producers, whereas producers of capital and consumer goods maintained neutral expectations.