Norway - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.90 4 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.40 1.7 1.9 2 1.9 2 percent
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.5 percent
Balance of Trade 19399.06 5100 8900 19800 25400 14900 NOK Million
Government Debt to GDP 36.20 34 34 34 32 30 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 8.08
8.01 8.18 8.36 8.54 9.3
Stock Market 1002.19
points
886 861 837 814 727
Government Bond 10Y 1.91
percent
1.98 2.09 2.21 2.34 2.93
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.30
percent
1.1 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.5
GDP 370.56
USD Billion
363 367 429 459 478
GDP Constant Prices 812179.00
NOK Million
807734 817816 825665 829235 862387
Gross National Product 848278.00
NOK Million
814891 806973 888958 866092 928495
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 185182.00
NOK Million
195829 194903 199655 189071 208534
GDP per capita 89818.32
USD
90070 90070 90070 90150 90220
GDP per capita PPP 63810.79
USD
63972 63915 63857 64340 64387
GDP From Agriculture 5389.00
NOK Million
5330 5360 5474 5502 5718
GDP From Construction 48589.00
NOK Million
47800 48482 49664 49609 51872
GDP From Manufacturing 51869.00
NOK Million
51743 51547 53181 52958 55546
GDP From Mining 1346.00
NOK Million
1334 1382 1305 1374 1363
GDP From Public Administration 47518.00
NOK Million
46924 47308 48077 48516 50215
GDP From Utilities 4973.00
NOK Million
4841 4951 5038 5077 5262
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90
percent
4 4 3.9 3.8 3.7
Employed Persons 2676.00
Thousand
2663 2659 2656 2654 2657
Unemployed Persons 83430.00
81170 80280 79420 79250 78250
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.50
percent
69.88 69.92 71.6 69.91 72.1
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20
percent
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.40
percent
9.39 10 10.43 10.41 9.87
Productivity 122.81
Index Points
122 122 122 123 123
Labour Costs 121.40
Index Points
122 122 122 122 122
Job Vacancies 58000.00
61050 61050 61050 61050 61050
Wages in Manufacturing 156.10
Index Points
156 158 154 156 160
Wage Growth 6.34
percent
6.43 7.95 6.53 7.86 6.89
Population 5.26
Million
5.32 5.32 5.32 5.31 5.42
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Part Time Employment 647.20
Thousand
647 636 647 636 647
Wages 44310.00
NOK/Month
45200 45200 45200 46000 46600
Employment Change 0.40
percent
0.37 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37
Employment Rate 66.80
percent
66.96 67.12 67.02 67.08 67.06
Full Time Employment 1898.00
Thousand
1898 1923 1899 1923 1901
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.40
percent
1.7 1.9 2 1.9 2
Harmonised Consumer Prices 108.20
Index Points
108 108 109 110 113
Consumer Price Index CPI 107.70
Index Points
108 108 108 109 112
Core Consumer Prices 105.70
Index Points
107 107 107 107 111
Core Inflation Rate 1.30
percent
1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2
GDP Deflator 105.08
Index Points
104 105 105 105 103
Producer Prices 252.00
Index Points
225 230 249 251 266
Producer Prices Change 12.20
percent
3 2.8 3 2.9 3.2
Export Prices 151.50
Index Points
152 151 153 154 154
Import Prices 143.10
Index Points
144 144 146 146 146
Food Inflation 3.90
percent
1.8 2 2.4 2.6 3.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.03 0.19 0.5 0.17 0.4
CPI Housing Utilities 111.60
Index Points
109 110 111 114 116
CPI Transportation 108.00
Index Points
108 108 108 109 112
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.50
percent
0.5 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.5
Interbank Rate 1.04
percent
0.81 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.81
Money Supply M0 101823.00
NOK Million
109798 115088 110102 112114 110542
Money Supply M1 2038239.00
NOK Million
1920067 1919861 1919842 1919840 1919840
Money Supply M2 2189500.00
NOK Million
2154958 2154603 2154052 2153477 2147151
Foreign Exchange Reserves 541718.00
NOK Million
537179 529189 529937 537074 530757
Loans to Private Sector 1742386.00
NOK Million
1674614 1674029 1685201 1690803 1685497
Deposit Interest Rate -0.50
percent
-0.5 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 0.5
Lending Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5
Loan Growth 6.30
percent
5.6 5.58 5.64 5.67 5.67
Private Debt to GDP 286.78
percent
278 278 278 272 266
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8700558.00
NOK Millions
9190040 9183575 9177080 9170590 9099598
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 19399.06
NOK Million
5100 8900 19800 25400 14900
Exports 81858.29
NOK Million
69800 67900 79200 80100 85100
Imports 62459.23
NOK Million
64700 59000 59400 54700 70200
Current Account 35034.00
NOK Million
42182 37543 38198 39671 41792
Current Account to GDP 5.10
percent
6.6 6.6 6.6 6.4 7.5
External Debt 5319100.00
NOK Million
5317273 5309957 5316018 5310996 5313559
Terms of Trade 105.87
Index Points
106 105 105 106 105
Capital Flows 62176.00
NOK Million
61144 -20360 60138 -19366 54599
Crude Oil Production 1652.00
BBL/D/1K
1583 1576 1619 1616 1605
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Weapons Sales 134.00
USD Million
134 134 134 134 134
Foreign Direct Investment -54502.00
NOK Million
-23604 -13621 -17907 -16067 -16620
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 36.20
percent
34 34 34 32 30
Government Budget 4.40
percent of GDP
4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.1
Government Budget Value -10332.00
NOK Million
-9432 -9432 -9432 -9432 -9432
Government Spending 192856.00
NOK Million
190911 192778 196101 196906 204823
Government Spending to GDP 50.30
percent
50 50 50 49.7 49.4
Government Revenues 304638.00
NOK Million
302602 302602 302602 302602 302602
Government Debt 522047.00
NOK Million
523721 583638 525307 582093 533228
Fiscal Expenditure 314970.00
NOK Million
312034 312034 312034 312034 312034
Military Expenditure 6329.60
USD Million
5966 6002 6039 6074 6321
Asylum Applications 140.00
persons
920 964 960 959 959
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 6.30
Index Points
7.5 6.9 7.4 8 4
Manufacturing PMI 56.20
55.98 55.85 55.86 55.85 55.85
Industrial Production 0.20
percent
1.1 2.6 4 4.1 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -0.70
percent
0.5 -0.7 0.2 0.6 0.4
Manufacturing Production 0.90
percent
1.9 3.2 4.5 4.2 3
Capacity Utilization 78.00
percent
77.84 77.83 77.84 77.84 77.84
New Orders 146.10
Index Points
133 123 128 123 115
Changes in Inventories 54179.00
NOK Million
40383 37471 39338 38141 38612
Bankruptcies 412.00
Companies and Individuals
369 361 356 352 342
Car Registrations 15972.00
16918 14800 15570 15725 15211
Internet Speed 23539.08
KBps
23998 23729 23462 23213 20020
IP Addresses 2663340.00
IP
2712827 2716964 2715078 2718238 2719570
Mining Production 11.90
percent
-4.03 -3.74 -3.6 -3.43 -3.44
Steel Production 50.00
Thousand Tonnes
50.19 49.37 49.43 49.42 49.42
Competitiveness Index 5.40
Points
5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42
Competitiveness Rank 11.00
11 11 11 11 11
Ease of Doing Business 8.00
8 8 8 8 8
Electricity Production 14796.00
Gigawatt-hour
13856 11088 10854 13134 13114
Corruption Index 85.00
Points
85 85 85 85 85
Corruption Rank 3.00
3 3 3 3 3
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 19.60
Index Points
15 19 17 14 17
Retail Sales MoM 1.10
percent
-0.6 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.6
Retail Sales YoY 0.90
percent
1.2 3.8 2.5 2.2 2
Consumer Spending 357037.00
NOK Million
353452 357821 365408 364535 381660
Disposable Personal Income 290165.00
NOK Million
283317 283317 283317 283317 283317
Personal Savings 8.90
percent
8.5 8.2 7.8 7.6 7
Consumer Credit 3308669.00
NOK Million
3341924 3355704 3352007 3332456 3163855
Gasoline Prices 1.90
USD/Liter
1.69 1.59 1.5 1.41 0.98
Household Spending -0.60
percent
0.5 -0.3 0.9 -0.7 0.5
Households Debt To Gdp 102.00
percent of GDP
102 102 102 102 103
Households Debt To Income 197.54
percent
193 196 198 199 214
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 112.00
Index Points
109 109 108 108 108
Housing Starts 2307.00
2880 2835 2865 2829 2847
New Home Sales 26536.00
26587 28817 31995 34655 35953
Building Permits 2315.00
2776 2805 2823 2833 2843
Home Ownership Rate 82.70
percent
83.39 83.38 83.37 83.43 83.77
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52
percent
38.52 38.52 38.52 39 39
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 22.30
percent
22.3 22.3 22.3 22 22
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10
percent
14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20
percent
8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature -2.91
celsius
3.28 8.92 -3.9 -7.82 0.12
Precipitation 163.15
mm
60.07 94.68 100 78.35 85.12