Norway | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 7749.67 13234 14030 14420 14396 14334 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 35.60 38.2 38.2 38.2 40.1 42.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 8.42 8.6 8.68 8.94 8.85 10.21 [+]
Stock Market 763.41 760 752 729 737 614 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.50 1.53 1.54 1.56 1.57 1.81 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 3 percent [+]
GDP 386.58 399 380 407 345 478 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 813116.00 814321 816740 818995 821033 841549 NOK Million [+]
Gross National Product 825719.00 824916 809289 855454 852939 879173 NOK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 180798.00 179942 181015 180936 181391 181930 NOK Million [+]
GDP per capita 89590.80 89795 89886 89978 90051 90789 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 64272.16 64500 64607 64714 64739 65692 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5015.00 4926 4970 4963 4975 4963 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Construction 45934.00 46142 46350 46543 46685 47193 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 49503.00 49446 49579 49474 49554 49509 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Mining 1149.00 1182 1141 1154 1154 1155 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 44552.00 44679 44857 45028 45198 46779 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 4600.00 4594 4591 4589 4589 4589 NOK Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2651.00 2648 2651 2651 2653 2661 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 95655.00 103000 92634 100000 89216 90000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.60 71 70.18 71.2 69.02 72.1 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.27 1.28 1.3 1.32 1.51 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.80 10.68 10.76 10.72 10.73 10.73 percent [+]
Productivity 124.44 124 124 125 126 129 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 119.70 120 124 116 120 119 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 49000.00 56364 52230 50184 55697 52159 [+]
Wage Growth 4.11 7.19 8.76 5.15 4.43 5.05 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 154.40 158 158 156 158 166 Index Points [+]
Population 5.21 5.26 5.26 5.26 5.32 5.43 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.2 0.22 0.29 percent [+]
Employment Rate 73.90 74.03 74.06 74.05 74.05 74.05 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 1882.30 1878 1913 1891 1878 1898 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 649.70 662 642 647 653 648 Thousand [+]
Wages 43400.00 43972 44205 44438 44668 47476 NOK/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.40 106 106 107 107 113 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.80 106 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.60 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.47 1.34 1.23 1.17 1.05 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 100.39 101 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 222.80 236 238 240 242 257 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 8.90 7.5 18.4 16.2 14.1 3.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 144.00 145 146 147 147 148 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 132.50 132 132 133 133 133 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.70 -0.2 -0.07 -0.21 -0.23 -0.26 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 107.20 107 107 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 104.00 104 105 105 106 112 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.86 0.89 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 84442.00 87261 86695 86398 86491 86568 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1872596.00 1873019 1872612 1872605 1872606 1872606 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2081927.00 2086932 2106778 2124704 2142488 2332717 NOK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 549979.00 551237 552789 553026 553082 553099 NOK Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1645702.00 1655323 1668823 1680896 1691731 1757646 NOK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8601458.00 8686041 8886727 9085213 9282451 11360466 NOK Millions [+]
Private Debt to GDP 283.56 282 283 284 283 277 percent [+]
Lending Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 5.10 5.13 5.14 5.16 5.18 5.26 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 7749.67 13234 14030 14420 14396 14334 NOK Million [+]
Exports 66925.07 68507 67054 67445 67697 67621 NOK Million [+]
Imports 59175.40 53558 50467 52145 52269 52544 NOK Million [+]
Current Account 77487.00 59628 53793 62380 65577 61774 NOK Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.90 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 7.2 percent [+]
External Debt 5388325.00 5392812 5390309 5397062 5397202 5397218 NOK Million [+]
Terms of Trade 108.68 109 109 108 109 109 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 127397.00 130386 49586 114208 99248 110103 NOK Million [+]
Gold Reserves 36.70 36.76 36.76 36.76 36.76 36.76 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1710.00 1687 1687 1688 1688 1688 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -31842.00 79042 41438 -13179 -42907 -7862 NOK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.08 1.84 1.73 1.62 1.56 1.32 [+]
Weapons Sales 150.00 192 186 181 173 159 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.60 38.2 38.2 38.2 40.1 42.5 percent [+]
Government Budget 3.10 5.26 4.26 3.26 3.69 4.46 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -25784.00 -39422 -32563 -58595 -33531 -55204 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending 182926.00 183663 184494 185284 186078 194831 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 51.10 49.72 50.26 50.8 50.56 49.68 percent [+]
Government Revenues 316046.00 310627 278432 264841 307908 279892 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt 627807.00 548866 639270 552087 630642 527982 NOK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 341830.00 342566 310841 333249 355080 384172 NOK Million [+]
Asylum Applications 405.00 653 1026 1032 1020 1020 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 6079.50 5911 5931 5951 5971 5974 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 1.10 2.5 3.6 4.02 4.23 2.62 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.30 54 54.07 54.07 54.08 54.07 [+]
Industrial Production 0.90 1.5 -0.01 2 -0.28 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.70 2.1 0.08 -0.1 0.01 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.40 0.8 -0.72 1.8 -0.95 2.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.00 77.8 78.22 78.33 78.39 78.4 percent [+]
New Orders 115.00 122 112 121 115 121 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 39017.00 38942 39234 38730 38604 38696 NOK Million [+]
Bankruptcies 411.00 412 385 391 390 391 Companies and persons [+]
Car Registrations 14900.00 14650 14554 14568 14567 14567 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.44 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.45 5.46 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 11.00 10 10 10 13 12 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 7 6 6 6 6 [+]
Electricity Production 11538.00 10533 12097 13469 12182 12337 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 85.00 86 86 86 86 86 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 6.00 5 5 5 5 6 [+]
Steel Production 50.00 50.43 50.33 50.25 50.26 50.27 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -6.20 1.21 1.12 1.53 1.69 1.8 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 11.08 5.6 6.2 6.5 6.5 17 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.09 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.20 5.1 2.16 0.5 2.2 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 337501.00 339003 340752 342410 344034 361641 NOK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 342491.00 351454 351930 358324 358078 392589 NOK Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.80 8.8 6.19 9.2 6.32 8.4 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 3125091.00 3154027 3198404 3242560 3286585 3762316 NOK Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.67 1.64 1.59 1.6 1.61 1.61 USD/Liter [+]
Household Spending -0.60 1.2 0.2 2 0.18 2.1 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 101.60 103 103 103 104 105 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 186.42 188 187 187 187 187 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 113.40 48.06 47.36 87.68 120 95.77 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 2424.00 2796 2938 2960 2911 2919 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.80 83.83 83.7 83.57 83.64 83.93 percent [+]
New Home Sales 34851.00 34663 34581 34496 34444 34431 [+]
Housing Starts 2644.00 3087 3019 3014 3015 3015 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00 24.99 24.99 24.99 23.98 23.98 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52 38.65 38.65 38.65 38.37 38.37 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.30 22.74 22.5 22.25 22.26 22.44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10 14.2 14.07 13.94 13.97 14.31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20 8.28 8.28 8.28 8.29 8.39 percent [+]