Norway | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.30 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 12428.00 10366 12478 12516 12422 12388 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 35.60 38.2 38.2 40.1 40.1 42.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 7.77 7.66 7.59 7.51 7.43 6.58 [+]
Stock Market 848.28 767 759 752 744 659 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.60 1.66 1.67 1.69 1.71 1.89 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.20 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.4 3 percent [+]
GDP 370.56 366 407 362 355 478 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 803559.00 803583 806395 809257 811931 833685 NOK Million [+]
Gross National Product 805064.00 782751 830786 827746 815519 827623 NOK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 192263.00 192226 192551 191768 193166 194956 NOK Million [+]
GDP per capita 89818.32 89981 89965 89993 90021 90223 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 63810.79 63915 63857 63918 63979 64340 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5284.00 5326 5307 5318 5302 5311 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Construction 47513.00 47738 47981 48162 48308 48790 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 51576.00 51757 51606 51745 51605 51654 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Mining 1317.00 1293 1306 1310 1318 1324 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 46556.00 46758 46957 47154 47347 49005 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 4862.00 4854 4851 4848 4847 4847 NOK Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2646.00 2647 2647 2648 2648 2649 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 91830.00 90857 100000 85844 83971 90000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.20 70.46 71.2 69.26 69.84 72.1 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.44 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.90 10.96 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 percent [+]
Productivity 121.59 124 125 126 126 129 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 129.90 124 116 120 120 119 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 49000.00 52230 50184 55697 55880 52159 [+]
Wage Growth 5.30 7.86 6.64 5.56 6.17 7.19 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 155.10 154 154 154 154 153 Index Points [+]
Population 5.26 5.26 5.26 5.32 5.32 5.43 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Change 0.40 0.21 0.2 0.22 0.24 0.29 percent [+]
Employment Rate 67.10 67.37 66.51 66.3 66.9 66.22 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 1867.50 1910 1889 1873 1879 1893 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 656.40 642 647 652 657 648 Thousand [+]
Wages 43300.00 43877 44108 44354 44600 46446 NOK/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.30 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.60 106 105 105 105 104 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.30 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.40 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.90 1.01 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.25 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 101.12 101 101 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 215.80 238 240 242 242 257 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.00 18.4 16.2 14.1 14.1 3.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 144.10 146 147 147 147 148 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 134.70 132 133 133 133 133 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.70 -1.18 -0.92 -0.59 -0.3 1.64 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 107.30 107 107 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 105.20 106 106 106 105 105 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.80 0.13 0.7 0.26 0.29 0.4 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.81 0.83 0.89 1.05 1.21 2.58 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 135307.00 121120 114570 109163 104499 82317 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1940492.00 1941552 1936307 1930566 1924828 1868714 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2152543.00 2147291 2147200 2146844 2146437 2142245 NOK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 515200.00 545785 545645 545666 545669 545670 NOK Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1672431.00 1683307 1685314 1686601 1686803 1672389 NOK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.50 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8612075.00 8811766 8998901 9186035 9371386 11141868 NOK Millions [+]
Private Debt to GDP 282.92 282 283 282 281 276 percent [+]
Lending Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 5.70 6.01 6.25 6.44 6.6 7.61 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 12428.00 10366 12478 12516 12422 12388 NOK Million [+]
Exports 65294.00 62511 62815 63282 63260 63198 NOK Million [+]
Imports 52866.55 52863 54269 52949 54028 54151 NOK Million [+]
Current Account 35817.00 34157 37953 37877 36995 36740 NOK Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.90 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 7.2 percent [+]
External Debt 5307950.00 3333625 1805166 383525 -304475 147089 NOK Million [+]
Terms of Trade 106.98 109 108 109 109 109 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 29843.00 62064 76724 75742 72691 72698 NOK Million [+]
Gold Reserves 36.70 36.76 36.76 36.76 36.76 36.76 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1651.00 1696 1699 1702 1704 1724 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -31842.00 41438 -13179 -42907 -22943 -7862 NOK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.08 1.73 1.62 1.56 1.5 1.32 [+]
Weapons Sales 150.00 186 181 173 165 159 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.60 38.2 38.2 40.1 40.1 42.5 percent [+]
Government Budget 3.10 4.26 3.26 3.69 4.12 4.46 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -13052.00 -10144 -28414 -16780 -18333 -7533 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending 189193.00 189945 190813 191622 192441 200638 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 51.10 50.26 50.8 50.56 50.32 49.68 percent [+]
Government Revenues 324161.00 293728 271363 301228 308725 289042 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt 502262.00 639270 552087 630642 546372 527982 NOK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 337213.00 307661 316225 331723 332371 320971 NOK Million [+]
Asylum Applications 230.00 941 1032 1021 1016 1016 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 6079.50 5931 5951 5971 5991 5974 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 3.80 3.6 5.19 5.18 4.77 2.6 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.70 55.84 55.36 55.04 54.77 53.54 [+]
Industrial Production 0.50 1.05 2 0.66 0.54 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.70 0.02 -0.1 0.07 0.07 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.40 1.11 1.8 1.02 1 2.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.70 78 78.06 78.1 78.12 78.11 percent [+]
New Orders 107.30 112 121 115 121 121 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 47292.00 44809 43195 42932 43763 44044 NOK Million [+]
Bankruptcies 256.00 390 397 396 397 397 Companies and persons [+]
Car Registrations 15206.00 15076 14885 14695 14514 13094 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.44 5.46 5.46 5.45 5.45 5.46 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 11.00 10 10 12 13 12 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 6 6 6 6 6 [+]
Electricity Production 10624.00 12324 13232 12255 11716 12415 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 85.00 86 86 86 86 86 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 6.00 5 5 5 5 6 [+]
Steel Production 15.00 50.56 50.45 50.46 50.47 50.47 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 5.50 2.21 1.99 1.88 1.84 1.81 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 16.20 15 14 12 15 17 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.40 0.6 0.4 0.14 0.13 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.50 2.51 0.5 2.55 2.55 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 351857.00 353664 355691 357691 359540 377814 NOK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 342491.00 351930 358324 358078 363052 392589 NOK Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.80 6.19 9.2 6.32 6.37 8.4 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 3183494.00 3216394 3256717 3291168 3320299 3434725 NOK Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.85 1.75 1.78 1.77 1.77 1.77 USD/Liter [+]
Household Spending 1.70 0.04 2 0.19 0.18 2.1 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 101.60 103 103 104 104 105 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 194.97 197 199 200 201 211 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 114.50 115 115 115 115 115 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 3114.00 3334 3039 3112 3138 3127 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.70 83.4 83.38 83.43 83.49 83.71 percent [+]
New Home Sales 31594.00 32783 32375 32214 32170 32134 [+]
Housing Starts 3889.00 3164 3126 3121 3120 3120 [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00 24.99 24.99 24.23 23.98 23.98 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52 38.65 38.65 38.44 38.37 38.37 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.30 22.5 22.25 22.26 22.28 22.44 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10 14.07 13.94 13.97 14 14.31 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20 8.28 8.28 8.29 8.3 8.39 percent [+]