Norway - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4 percent
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.5 1.7 1.9 2 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.5 0.5 1.25 percent
Balance of Trade 24721.00 15392 13679 13411 13365 13272 NOK Million
Government Debt to GDP 35.60 40.1 40.1 40.1 40.1 42.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 7.89
8.05 8.22 8.39 8.57 9.31
Stock Market 939.61
points
844 836 827 818 732
Government Bond 10Y 1.64
percent
1.62 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.83
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.20
percent
2.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 3
GDP 370.56
USD Billion
348 349 349 429 478
GDP Constant Prices 809357.00
NOK Million
813883 815131 815783 816567 815843
Gross National Product 795539.00
NOK Million
804160 804323 802359 801531 799997
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 192277.00
NOK Million
190692 190680 190447 190369 188472
GDP per capita 89818.32
USD
90070 90070 90070 90070 90220
GDP per capita PPP 63810.79
USD
63818 63834 63850 63865 63531
GDP From Agriculture 5168.00
NOK Million
5197 5153 5106 5112 4947
GDP From Construction 47898.00
NOK Million
48065 48090 48069 48039 47569
GDP From Manufacturing 51094.00
NOK Million
50909 50823 50738 50656 50046
GDP From Mining 1385.00
NOK Million
1352 1349 1339 1333 1289
GDP From Public Administration 46668.00
NOK Million
46737 46733 46729 46718 46579
GDP From Utilities 4886.00
NOK Million
4872 4868 4865 4861 4834
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4
Employed Persons 2659.00
Thousand
2660 2659 2658 2657 2651
Unemployed Persons 87080.00
87189 87297 87404 97800 90000
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.10
percent
69.8 69.97 70 71.6 72.1
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.00
percent
0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.40
percent
10.44 10.47 10.48 10.49 10.55
Productivity 122.10
Index Points
122 122 122 122 122
Labour Costs 117.90
Index Points
120 124 120 119 120
Job Vacancies 56700.00
54581 58428 57486 54956 54527
Wages in Manufacturing 156.70
Index Points
157 157 157 157 156
Wage Growth 8.67
percent
5.64 6.34 7.57 7.17 7.5
Population 5.26
Million
5.32 5.32 5.32 5.32 5.39
Retirement Age Women 67.00
67 67 67 67 67
Retirement Age Men 67.00
67 67 67 67 67
Part Time Employment 635.90
Thousand
648 647 641 641 640
Wages 43300.00
NOK/Month
43271 43406 43541 43676 44172
Employment Change 0.30
percent
0.31 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.31
Employment Rate 67.10
percent
66.86 67.15 67.17 67.04 67.3
Full Time Employment 1922.10
Thousand
1885 1897 1905 1897 1891
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.5 1.7 1.9 2 2.1
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.50
Index Points
106 106 106 106 105
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.10
Index Points
106 106 106 106 106
Core Consumer Prices 105.00
Index Points
105 105 105 105 105
Core Inflation Rate 1.40
percent
1.34 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.4
GDP Deflator 100.67
Index Points
100 100 100 100 99.43
Producer Prices 241.50
Index Points
242 242 242 246 257
Producer Prices Change 7.30
percent
3.2 3 2.8 3 3.2
Export Prices 141.40
Index Points
141 141 140 140 138
Import Prices 134.10
Index Points
134 134 134 134 133
Food Inflation 0.60
percent
1.4 1.8 2 2.4 3.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.19 0.15 0.17 0.5 0.4
CPI Housing Utilities 109.20
Index Points
109 109 109 109 109
CPI Transportation 105.70
Index Points
106 106 106 106 105
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.50
percent
0.75 0.75 0.5 0.5 1.25
Interbank Rate 0.82
percent
1.12 1.28 1.43 1.58 2.5
Money Supply M0 83160.00
NOK Million
91861 89623 87657 85967 79061
Money Supply M1 1951651.00
NOK Million
1946768 1941173 1935568 1929984 1886113
Money Supply M2 2151894.00
NOK Million
2152970 2152725 2152339 2151934 2148671
Foreign Exchange Reserves 541174.00
NOK Million
540119 539212 538333 537454 530509
Loans to Private Sector 1704446.00
NOK Million
1731292 1741746 1747558 1750496 1744486
Deposit Interest Rate -0.50
percent
-0.44 -0.4 -0.35 -0.3 0.01
Lending Rate 1.50
percent
1.74 1.94 2.15 2.35 3.57
Loan Growth 5.80
percent
6.02 6.16 6.29 6.41 7.25
Private Debt to GDP 282.92
percent
280 280 280 281 270
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8520620.00
NOK Millions
8596395 8592856 8588360 8583770 8547074
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 24721.00
NOK Million
15392 13679 13411 13365 13272
Exports 76812.00
NOK Million
76448 76003 75573 75146 71888
Imports 52091.00
NOK Million
62156 63038 62878 62627 60805
Current Account 17676.00
NOK Million
37136 38868 33530 33669 35018
Current Account to GDP 4.90
percent
6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 7.2
External Debt 5289054.00
NOK Million
3127374 2073396 1043435 233975 -146723
Terms of Trade 105.44
Index Points
106 105 105 105 103
Capital Flows -43584.00
NOK Million
94875 75356 61558 67690 70360
Crude Oil Production 1460.00
BBL/D/1K
1537 1540 1543 1546 1569
Terrorism Index 0.00
0.89 0.59 0.29 0 0.81
Weapons Sales 150.00
USD Million
176 170 164 158 98.39
Foreign Direct Investment 10006.00
NOK Million
11350 11680 11467 10419 11045
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.60
percent
40.1 40.1 40.1 40.1 42.5
Government Budget 3.10
percent of GDP
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 5.1
Government Budget Value -5812.00
NOK Million
-14540 -18275 -5419 -17242 -7155
Government Spending 190353.00
NOK Million
191138 191470 191584 191747 191696
Government Spending to GDP 51.10
percent
49.52 49.94 50.36 50.77 49.15
Government Revenues 281043.00
NOK Million
297900 309390 290362 279497 287277
Government Debt 596570.00
NOK Million
580301 477281 572957 475429 463996
Fiscal Expenditure 286855.00
NOK Million
329962 331215 300660 311937 313680
Military Expenditure 6079.50
USD Million
5868 5898 5927 5957 5934
Asylum Applications 130.00
persons
981 1000 982 980 981
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.30
Index Points
3.09 3.03 3.05 2.93 2.71
Manufacturing PMI 57.80
56.67 56.25 55.84 55.5 54.06
Industrial Production -1.30
percent
0.53 0.64 0.57 2.6 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 0.60
percent
-0.04 0.06 0.07 0.2 0.8
Manufacturing Production 2.30
percent
1.75 1.61 1.48 2.5 2.7
Capacity Utilization 77.90
percent
78.08 78.5 78.92 79.27 80.9
New Orders 97.80
Index Points
98.69 99.42 98.26 98.2 95.11
Changes in Inventories 31604.00
NOK Million
33708 32652 30900 30261 27544
Bankruptcies 456.00
Companies and persons
408 395 387 381 343
Car Registrations 18196.00
Cars
16774 16571 16346 16125 14639
Internet Speed 23539.08
KBps
24015 23998 23729 23462 21127
IP Addresses 2663340.00
IP
2759859 2766211 2772369 2777549 2808307
Mining Production -1.60
percent
1.13 1.49 1.62 1.68 1.71
Steel Production 55.00
Thousand Tonnes
54.58 54.76 54.86 54.92 55.05
Competitiveness Index 5.40
Points
5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.37
Competitiveness Rank 11.00
12 12 12 12 12
Ease of Doing Business 8.00
8 8 8 8 7
Electricity Production 12429.00
Gigawatt-hour
11543 10847 11414 11893 11541
Corruption Index 85.00
Points
87 87 87 87 87
Corruption Rank 6.00
7 7 7 8 9
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 17.30
Index Points
12 15 16 12 17
Retail Sales MoM 2.10
percent
0.1 0.12 0.15 0.5 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 3.70
percent
2.29 2.23 2.2 1 1.4
Consumer Spending 353202.00
NOK Million
356326 357247 358128 358797 360256
Disposable Personal Income 291287.00
NOK Million
271670 285437 273153 284213 279602
Personal Savings 5.00
percent
6.03 6.02 6.11 8.9 8.4
Consumer Credit 3254795.00
NOK Million
3313638 3349947 3380791 3406864 3503364
Gasoline Prices 1.80
USD/Liter
1.75 1.75 1.74 1.74 1.71
Household Spending -0.10
percent
0.2 0.19 0.19 2.4 2.1
Households Debt To Gdp 101.60
percent of GDP
102 102 101 101 99.71
Households Debt To Income 194.97
percent
188 191 193 196 192
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 111.80
Index Points
110 110 110 110 109
Housing Starts 2511.00
2538 2497 2467 2442 2356
New Home Sales 30381.00
25924 25039 25007 25617 29704
Building Permits 2820.00
2450 2319 2255 2225 2195
Home Ownership Rate 82.70
percent
83.31 83.57 83.84 84.11 84.39
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent
26 26 25 25 26
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52
percent
39 39 39 39 41
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 22.30
percent
23 23 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10
percent
14.39 14.28 14.18 14.08 14.64
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20
percent
8.25 8.24 8.23 8.22 8.14
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature -2.00
celsius
-0.12 3.95 2.67 -0.8 0.03
Precipitation 163.00
mm
89.19 89.19 89.19 89.19 89.19