Norway | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 1 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 9180.00 10508 10821 10987 11127 12029 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 35.60 38.2 40.1 40.1 40.1 42.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 7.99 7.95 7.87 7.79 7.71 6.83 [+]
Stock Market 874.23 853 844 836 827 732 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.63 1.61 1.62 1.64 1.65 1.83 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.20 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.6 3 percent [+]
GDP 370.56 407 336 322 309 478 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 803559.00 806965 809194 809526 810178 809253 NOK Million [+]
Gross National Product 805064.00 798507 802624 803183 800977 798561 NOK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 192263.00 190747 189477 189718 189348 187362 NOK Million [+]
GDP per capita 89818.32 89960 90070 90070 90070 90220 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 63810.79 63865 63858 63852 63845 63531 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5284.00 5220 5215 5176 5154 4966 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Construction 47513.00 47739 47784 47771 47743 47211 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 51576.00 51451 51364 51275 51186 50444 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Mining 1317.00 1302 1296 1291 1286 1250 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 46556.00 46600 46590 46585 46581 46420 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 4862.00 4848 4843 4840 4836 4809 NOK Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2655.00 2656 2656 2655 2654 2647 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 91378.00 100000 91409 91424 91439 90000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.20 71.2 69.88 70.08 70.23 72.1 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.18 1.17 1.13 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.60 10.61 10.58 10.6 10.59 10.63 percent [+]
Productivity 121.59 122 122 122 122 122 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 129.90 121 121 125 125 123 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 49000.00 50462 50544 51252 51181 49140 [+]
Wage Growth 5.30 6.64 5.56 6.17 7.07 7.19 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 155.10 154 154 154 154 153 Index Points [+]
Population 5.26 5.25 5.32 5.32 5.32 5.39 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Change 0.40 0.25 0.32 0.31 0.29 0.31 percent [+]
Employment Rate 67.10 66.85 66.86 67.15 67.17 67.3 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 1867.50 1881 1874 1878 1881 1871 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 656.40 650 652 658 654 651 Thousand [+]
Wages 43300.00 43676 43752 43829 43906 44172 NOK/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.1 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.30 106 106 106 106 104 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.90 106 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.90 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.00 1 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.24 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 101.12 100 100 100 99.91 99.11 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 222.00 240 242 242 222 257 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 8.70 3.6 3.2 3 2.8 3.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 141.40 141 141 141 140 138 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 134.10 134 134 134 134 133 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.70 0.9 1.4 1.8 2 3.4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 107.90 108 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 105.50 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.7 0.29 0.3 0.31 0.4 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 1 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.83 0.89 1.04 1.2 1.35 2.57 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 110069.00 110875 106012 101800 98170 81776 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1897707.00 1888545 1882505 1876572 1870669 1818690 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2108465.00 2118452 2118413 2118079 2117680 2113988 NOK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 504467.00 505230 504228 503243 502261 493569 NOK Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1665699.00 1653924 1647009 1642188 1638567 1620002 NOK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.50 -0.47 -0.43 -0.38 -0.33 0.03 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8520620.00 8590830 8596395 8592856 8588360 8547074 NOK Millions [+]
Private Debt to GDP 282.92 281 279 278 277 270 percent [+]
Lending Rate 1.50 1.62 1.81 2.02 2.23 3.62 percent [+]
Loan Growth 5.60 5.81 5.93 6.05 6.18 7.16 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 9180.00 10508 10821 10987 11127 12029 NOK Million [+]
Exports 63935.00 63507 63222 62896 62560 59698 NOK Million [+]
Imports 54755.00 53613 53137 52887 52660 50665 NOK Million [+]
Current Account 35817.00 37953 37877 36995 36662 36740 NOK Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.90 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 7.2 percent [+]
External Debt 5307950.00 1805166 383525 -304475 -597434 147089 NOK Million [+]
Terms of Trade 105.44 106 106 105 105 103 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 29843.00 76724 75742 72691 72141 72698 NOK Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1600.00 1646 1649 1652 1654 1676 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -31842.00 983 1121 12165 14793 11240 NOK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 2.08 1.62 1.56 1.5 1.45 1.32 [+]
Weapons Sales 150.00 158 147 137 127 98.39 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.60 38.2 40.1 40.1 40.1 42.5 percent [+]
Government Budget 3.10 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 5.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -13052.00 -28414 -16780 -18333 -8419 -7533 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending 189193.00 190033 190175 190343 190482 190315 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 51.10 50.77 50.54 50.31 50.08 49.15 percent [+]
Government Revenues 324161.00 271363 301228 308725 300053 289042 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt 502262.00 483821 582746 478940 575300 465174 NOK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 337213.00 316225 331723 332371 315970 320971 NOK Million [+]
Asylum Applications 230.00 1015 1022 1003 1002 1002 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 6079.50 5957 5970 5984 5997 5934 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.30 3.21 3.09 3.03 3.05 2.71 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.50 53.07 53.02 53.02 53.02 53 [+]
Industrial Production 6.70 2 1.52 1.11 0.85 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 -0.1 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.20 1.8 0.73 0.76 0.78 2.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.90 77.87 78.08 78.5 78.92 80.9 percent [+]
New Orders 107.30 106 107 106 106 101 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 47292.00 37754 36523 34840 33245 27940 NOK Million [+]
Bankruptcies 366.00 334 328 326 323 302 Companies and persons [+]
Car Registrations 15442.00 15094 14904 14718 14539 13243 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.40 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.37 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 11.00 12 12 12 12 12 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 8 8 8 8 7 [+]
Electricity Production 11112.00 11833 11709 11311 11348 11499 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 85.00 87 87 87 87 87 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 6.00 8 8 8 8 9 [+]
Steel Production 50.00 47.86 49.72 51.39 52.54 54.82 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 5.50 2 1.89 1.85 1.83 1.82 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 16.20 14 12 15 16 17 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.60 0.4 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.50 0.5 2.49 2.42 2.37 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 351857.00 355079 356602 357589 358502 360800 NOK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 342491.00 343349 341765 342218 341216 338035 NOK Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.80 9.2 6.24 6.28 6.3 8.4 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 3201093.00 3259068 3294547 3324603 3349895 3444079 NOK Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.91 1.97 1.98 1.97 1.96 1.88 USD/Liter [+]
Household Spending 1.70 2 0.19 0.18 0.18 2.1 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 101.00 99.33 98.83 98.43 98.04 95.47 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 194.97 196 195 195 195 192 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 111.80 110 110 110 110 109 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 2286.00 2299 2235 2211 2200 2191 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.70 84.11 84.11 84.1 84.1 84.39 percent [+]
New Home Sales 31594.00 29070 28083 27663 27612 28784 [+]
Housing Starts 2294.00 2838 2767 2699 2638 2388 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00 25.54 25.08 24.84 24.61 25.87 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52 39.23 39.24 39.24 39.24 40.69 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.30 22.14 22.11 22.08 22.05 21.51 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10 14.08 14.17 14.26 14.36 14.64 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20 8.22 8.22 8.22 8.21 8.14 percent [+]