Norway | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.10 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 1 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4194.40 10508 10821 10987 11127 12029 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 35.60 38.2 40.1 40.1 40.1 42.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 8.34 7.95 7.87 7.79 7.71 6.83 [+]
Stock Market 888.83 853 844 836 827 732 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.52 1.61 1.62 1.64 1.65 1.83 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.20 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.6 3 percent [+]
GDP 370.56 407 336 322 309 478 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 809357.00 806965 809194 809526 810178 809253 NOK Million [+]
Gross National Product 795539.00 798507 802624 803183 800977 798561 NOK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 192277.00 190747 189477 189718 189348 187362 NOK Million [+]
GDP per capita 89818.32 89960 90070 90070 90070 90220 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 63810.79 63865 63858 63852 63845 63531 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5168.00 5220 5215 5176 5154 4966 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Construction 47898.00 47739 47784 47771 47743 47211 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 51094.00 51451 51364 51275 51186 50444 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Mining 1385.00 1302 1296 1291 1286 1250 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 46668.00 46600 46590 46585 46581 46420 NOK Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 4886.00 4848 4843 4840 4836 4809 NOK Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2658.00 2658 2658 2657 2656 2649 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 87125.00 100000 87173 87209 87245 90000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.10 71.2 69.8 69.97 70 72.1 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.00 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.30 10.43 10.41 10.43 10.44 10.52 percent [+]
Productivity 122.10 122 122 122 122 122 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 117.90 121 121 125 125 123 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 56700.00 50462 50544 51252 51181 49140 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 156.70 157 157 157 157 156 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 8.67 7.02 5.64 6.34 7.57 7.5 percent [+]
Population 5.26 5.25 5.32 5.32 5.32 5.39 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Part Time Employment 635.90 642 648 647 641 640 Thousand [+]
Wages 43300.00 43676 43752 43829 43906 44172 NOK/Month [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.34 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.31 percent [+]
Employment Rate 67.10 66.85 66.86 67.15 67.17 67.3 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 1922.10 1881 1874 1878 1881 1871 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.10 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.1 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.60 106 106 106 106 104 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.10 106 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 104.90 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.00 1 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.24 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 100.67 100 100 100 99.91 99.11 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 234.80 240 242 242 222 257 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 9.70 3.6 3.2 3 2.8 3.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 141.40 141 141 141 140 138 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 134.10 134 134 134 134 133 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.80 0.9 1.4 1.8 2 3.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.7 0.29 0.3 0.31 0.4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 109.00 108 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 104.80 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 1 0.5 1.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.85 0.81 0.89 1.05 1.2 2.44 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 119547.00 110829 106541 102400 98768 82209 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 1952419.00 1950921 1946206 1940601 1934987 1885451 NOK Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2153773.00 2145206 2146237 2146063 2145692 2142008 NOK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 532771.00 530395 529237 528343 527446 519488 NOK Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1693864.00 1706657 1719516 1726893 1730811 1724748 NOK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.50 -0.47 -0.43 -0.38 -0.33 0.03 percent [+]
Lending Rate 1.50 1.57 1.74 1.94 2.15 3.57 percent [+]
Loan Growth 5.70 5.77 5.84 5.94 6.05 7.06 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 282.92 281 279 278 277 270 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8520620.00 8590830 8596395 8592856 8588360 8547074 NOK Millions [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -4194.40 10508 10821 10987 11127 12029 NOK Million [+]
Exports 75312.47 63507 63222 62896 62560 59698 NOK Million [+]
Imports 79506.87 53613 53137 52887 52660 50665 NOK Million [+]
Current Account 17676.00 30692 37136 38868 33530 35018 NOK Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.90 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 7.2 percent [+]
External Debt 5289054.00 1805166 383525 -304475 -597434 147089 NOK Million [+]
Terms of Trade 105.44 106 106 105 105 103 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -43584.00 76724 75742 72691 72141 72698 NOK Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1602.00 1611 1614 1617 1620 1643 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 1.62 1.56 1.5 1.45 1.32 [+]
Weapons Sales 150.00 158 147 137 127 98.39 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -31842.00 983 1121 12165 14793 11240 NOK Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.60 38.2 40.1 40.1 40.1 42.5 percent [+]
Government Budget 3.10 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 5.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -5812.00 -27568 -14540 -18275 -5419 -7155 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending 190353.00 190033 190175 190343 190482 190315 NOK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 51.10 50.77 50.54 50.31 50.08 49.15 percent [+]
Government Revenues 281043.00 269462 297900 309390 290362 287277 NOK Million [+]
Government Debt 596570.00 483821 582746 478940 575300 465174 NOK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 286855.00 311825 329962 331215 300660 313680 NOK Million [+]
Military Expenditure 6079.50 5957 5970 5984 5997 5934 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 130.00 926 1024 1000 994 995 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.30 3.21 3.09 3.03 3.05 2.71 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.10 56.51 55.87 55.49 55.17 53.77 [+]
Industrial Production -2.00 2 1.15 0.95 0.77 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.40 -0.1 -0.04 0.06 0.07 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.90 1.8 1.32 1.24 1.17 2.7 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.90 77.87 78.08 78.5 78.92 80.9 percent [+]
New Orders 97.80 106 107 106 106 101 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 31604.00 37754 36523 34840 33245 27940 NOK Million [+]
Bankruptcies 366.00 334 328 326 323 302 Companies and persons [+]
Car Registrations 15710.00 15094 14904 14718 14539 13243 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 23539.08 24188 24015 23998 23729 21127 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 2663340.00 2749156 2759859 2766211 2772369 2808307 IP [+]
Mining Production -1.60 2 1.89 1.85 1.83 1.82 percent [+]
Steel Production 55.98 52.25 53.09 53.82 54.22 54.99 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.40 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.37 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 11.00 12 12 12 12 12 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 8 8 8 8 7 [+]
Electricity Production 12429.00 11833 11709 11311 11348 11499 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 85.00 87 87 87 87 87 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 6.00 8 8 8 8 9 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 17.30 14 12 15 16 17 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.4 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.30 0.5 1.39 1.51 1.62 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 353202.00 355079 356602 357589 358502 360800 NOK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 291287.00 287766 271670 285437 273153 279602 NOK Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.00 9.2 6.03 6.02 6.11 8.4 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 3238715.00 3270914 3313185 3349292 3379953 3501510 NOK Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.75 1.7 1.67 1.67 1.66 1.65 USD/Liter [+]
Household Spending -0.10 2 0.19 0.18 0.18 2.1 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 101.60 99.33 98.83 98.43 98.04 95.47 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 194.97 196 195 195 195 192 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 111.80 110 110 110 110 109 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 2603.00 2653 2601 2550 2510 2363 [+]
New Home Sales 30381.00 29070 28083 27663 27612 28784 [+]
Building Permits 2882.00 2658 2412 2299 2245 2194 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.70 84.11 84.11 84.1 84.1 84.39 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00 26 25.5 25.25 25 26 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52 39 39 39 39 41 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.30 22.14 22.11 22.08 22.05 21.51 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10 14.08 14.17 14.26 14.36 14.64 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20 8.22 8.22 8.22 8.21 8.14 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature -2.00 -1.33 -0.12 3.95 2.67 0.03 celsius [+]
Precipitation 163.00 89.19 89.19 89.19 89.19 89.19 mm [+]