This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 percent
Inflation Rate 3.10 2.9 1.9 2 1.8 1.5 percent
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1 1 1.5 percent
Balance of Trade 34898.50 19800 25400 6300 33690 14900 NOK Million
Government Debt to GDP 36.20 34 32 32 32 30 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 8.58
8.25 8.3 8.36 8.42 8.66
Stock Market 950.02
points
1062 1052 1041 1031 990
Government Bond 10Y 1.89
percent
1.97 2.01 2.05 2.08 2.25
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.10
percent
2.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.6
GDP 398.83
USD Billion
425 450 450 450 470
GDP Constant Prices 811190.00
NOK Million
818741 819788 825088 828225 855148
Gross National Product 867368.00
NOK Million
888740 870035 902314 885583 928261
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 208126.00
NOK Million
211787 198119 211876 212497 221204
GDP per capita 91218.62
USD
91500 92200 92200 92200 93000
GDP per capita PPP 64800.06
USD
65000 65800 65800 65800 66300
GDP From Agriculture 4007.00
NOK Million
5525 5609 5629 4091 5771
GDP From Construction 50490.00
NOK Million
49434 50113 51079 51550 51633
GDP From Manufacturing 52192.00
NOK Million
52600 52361 53101 53288 54939
GDP From Mining 1182.00
NOK Million
1222 1235 1238 1207 1277
GDP From Public Administration 48827.00
NOK Million
49228 49313 49689 49852 51417
GDP From Utilities 5064.00
NOK Million
4963 5040 5112 5170 5183
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7
Employed Persons 2704.00
Thousand
2720 2732 2742 2752 2808
Unemployed Persons 79700.00
78420 77250 76200 75900 74250
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.70
percent
69.6 69.7 70.6 69.9 70.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.00
percent
0.99 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.87
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.70
percent
9.69 9.66 9.67 9.67 9.67
Productivity 120.26
Index Points
121 121 120 120 119
Labour Costs 134.20
Index Points
124 125 135 124 132
Job Vacancies 68400.00
66950 73205 77867 72380 72555
Wages in Manufacturing 101.60
Index Points
154 156 101 101 160
Wage Growth 2.42
percent
2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.4
Population 5.30
Million
5.3 5.36 5.36 5.36 5.41
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Part Time Employment 671.40
Thousand
660 668 673 662 665
Wages 45570.00
NOK/Month
45200 46000 46000 46000 46600
Employment Change 0.30
percent
0.39 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.32
Employment Rate 67.60
percent
67.22 67.33 68 67.96 68.01
Full Time Employment 1911.70
Thousand
1906 1897 1916 1927 1913
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.10
percent
2.9 1.9 2 1.8 1.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 110.10
Index Points
110 110 111 112 113
Consumer Price Index CPI 109.30
Index Points
109 109 111 111 113
Core Consumer Prices 106.90
Index Points
107 107 108 109 111
Core Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9
GDP Deflator 111.71
Index Points
113 113 114 114 114
Producer Prices 278.60
Index Points
289 262 272 280 309
Producer Prices Change 22.50
percent
19.5 7.5 4.5 4 3.2
Export Prices 155.10
Index Points
156 157 158 158 158
Import Prices 143.30
Index Points
145 145 145 145 145
Food Inflation 2.30
percent
2.4 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.4
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent
0.5 0.17 0.19 0.19 0.4
CPI Housing Utilities 113.80
Index Points
112 114 115 117 116
CPI Transportation 109.50
Index Points
109 109 112 111 112
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.75
percent
0.75 1 1 1 1.5
Interbank Rate 1.20
percent
1.14 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.89
Money Supply M0 74807.00
NOK Million
82670 81284 81510 81501 81450
Money Supply M1 2098775.00
NOK Million
2096344 2095976 2095941 2095940 2095941
Money Supply M2 2252391.00
NOK Million
2283659 2308250 2331123 2353990 2555478
Foreign Exchange Reserves 534609.00
NOK Million
534020 535479 534643 534781 534796
Loans to Private Sector 1720326.00
NOK Million
1706010 1685881 1669015 1654407 1586418
Deposit Interest Rate -0.25
percent
-0.25 0 0 0 0.5
Lending Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 2 2 2 2.5
Loan Growth 5.60
percent
5.36 5.12 4.93 4.78 4.19
Private Debt to GDP 284.60
percent
278 272 272 272 266
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8820009.00
NOK Million
8922489 9043110 9120207 9200534 9840786
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 34898.50
NOK Million
19800 25400 6300 33690 14900
Exports 99517.64
NOK Million
79200 80100 75400 94003 85100
Imports 64619.13
NOK Million
59400 54700 69100 60313 70200
Current Account 80938.00
NOK Million
45800 55100 60200 29800 34200
Current Account to GDP 5.70
percent
7.7 8 8 8 8.5
External Debt 5222383.00
NOK Million
5220385 5221431 5220365 5221207 5220826
Terms of Trade 108.23
Index Points
108 109 109 109 109
Capital Flows 139446.00
NOK Million
56970 58521 74171 71172 67970
Crude Oil Production 1555.00
BBL/D/1K
1525 1524 1524 1524 1500
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Weapons Sales 134.00
USD Million
178 166 154 142 183
Foreign Direct Investment -33665.00
NOK Million
-12205 -22263 -29800 -27315 -23926
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 36.20
percent
34 32 32 32 30
Government Budget 4.40
percent of GDP
4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1
Government Budget Value 29995.00
NOK Million
1795 -5890 6008 28458 -11660
Government Spending 198549.00
NOK Million
202063 201604 202581 202719 211048
Government Spending to GDP 50.30
percent
50 49.7 49.7 50.3 49.4
Government Revenues 324043.00
NOK Million
328937 346138 347740 335377 344435
Government Debt 629080.00
NOK Million
663053 707373 652834 690713 613234
Fiscal Expenditure 294048.00
NOK Million
326592 352028 341732 306919 356095
Military Expenditure 6329.60
USD Million
6380 6395 6410 6425 6617
Asylum Applications 280.00
persons
873 923 927 926 926
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 8.90
Index Points
9.5 8 8.6 9.1 5.1
Manufacturing PMI 56.00
54.5 54 54 53.2 52.5
Industrial Production 0.70
percent
4 4.1 3.8 0.34 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -1.50
percent
0.2 0.6 0.4 0.04 0.4
Manufacturing Production 1.50
percent
4.5 4.2 4 2.39 3
Capacity Utilization 79.20
percent
78.93 78.78 78.77 78.76 78.73
Changes in Inventories 29903.00
NOK Million
27080 27210 27448 27829 27955
Bankruptcies 419.00
Companies and Individuals
393 395 395 395 395
Car Registrations 14055.00
14455 14440 14464 14460 14461
Internet Speed 23539.08
KBps
29776 30644 31522 32277 38804
IP Addresses 2663340.00
IP
2715078 2718238 2718019 2719409 2719570
Leading Economic Index 0.30
percent
0.28 0.18 0.22 0.2 0.21
Mining Production -11.70
percent
-1.71 0.16 1.01 1.36 1.6
Steel Production 50.50
Thousand Tonnes
45.48 46.89 47.24 47.21 47.22
Competitiveness Index 78.16
Points
78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 81.16
Competitiveness Rank 16.00
16 16 16 16 16
Ease of Doing Business 7.00
7 8 8 8 8
Electricity Production 11198.00
Gigawatt-hour
14046 12674 10815 11985 12487
Corruption Index 85.00
Points
85 85 85 85 85
Corruption Rank 3.00
3 3 3 3 3
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 14.60
Index Points
17 14 14 20.59 17
Retail Sales MoM -0.70
percent
0.2 1.1 -2 0.5 0.6
Retail Sales YoY 0.70
percent
2.5 2.2 2.4 2.5 2
Consumer Spending 369151.00
NOK Million
374127 373633 378269 376903 390764
Disposable Personal Income 300593.00
NOK Million
292547 277844 298137 279952 293381
Personal Savings 6.60
percent
6.9 7 7.2 7.1 8.7
Consumer Credit 3416168.00
NOK Million
3465112 3514799 3564268 3613610 4052200
Gasoline Prices 1.96
USD/Liter
1.93 1.89 1.86 1.82 1.69
Household Spending -1.40
percent
0.9 -0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5
Households Debt To GDP 101.60
percent of GDP
102 102 102 102 102
Households Debt To Income 197.54
percent
199 200 200 201 205
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 115.10
Index Points
114 114 114 114 114
Housing Starts 2451.00
units
2584 2600 2602 2602 2603
New Home Sales 26830.00
27068 27419 27676 27860 28330
Building Permits 2536.00
2605 2633 2635 2634 2634
Home Ownership Rate 82.60
percent
83.31 83.48 83.65 83.82 84.12
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52
percent
38.52 38.52 38.52 38.52 38.52
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 22.30
percent
22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10
percent
14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20
percent
8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature -2.91
celsius
-3.9 -7.82 3.82 2.37 0.12
Precipitation 163.15
mm
100 78.35 90.37 90.37 85.12



Norway - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook