Norway - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.90 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 percent
Inflation Rate 3.40 2.5 2.3 1.9 2 1.5 percent
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 0.75 1 1 1.75 percent
Balance of Trade 31806.96 8900 27800 25400 6300 34600 NOK Million
Government Debt to GDP 36.20 34 34 32 32 30 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 8.15
 8.41 8.48 8.54 8.6 8.85
Stock Market 1046.22
points		 1027 1016 1006 996 957
Government Bond 10Y 1.95
percent		 1.82 1.86 1.89 1.93 2.08
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent		 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.30
percent		 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.6
GDP 398.83
USD Billion		 425 425 450 450 470
GDP Constant Prices 805405.00
NOK Million		 809378 815707 819208 825540 854491
Gross National Product 881187.00
NOK Million		 807188 885265 870770 903217 927356
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 204223.00
NOK Million		 206693 210750 197750 209329 220770
GDP per capita 91218.62
USD		 91500 91500 92200 92200 93000
GDP per capita PPP 64800.06
USD		 65000 65000 65800 65800 66300
GDP From Agriculture 5445.00
NOK Million		 5411 5493 5553 5581 5755
GDP From Construction 49785.00
NOK Million		 48467 49250 50090 51030 51592
GDP From Manufacturing 51335.00
NOK Million		 51477 52677 52240 52618 55182
GDP From Mining 1208.00
NOK Million		 1253 1218 1243 1238 1276
GDP From Public Administration 48528.00
NOK Million		 48378 49028 49269 49741 51359
GDP From Utilities 4981.00
NOK Million		 4845 4953 5038 5106 5189
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90
percent		 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7
Employed Persons 2692.00
Thousand 		2703 2714 2724 2733 2786
Unemployed Persons 81349.00
 79280 78420 77250 76200 74250
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.40
percent		 69.7 69.6 69.7 70.6 70.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.00
percent		 1.02 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.87
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.90
percent		 9.59 9.69 9.66 9.67 9.67
Productivity 120.11
Index Points		 121 121 121 120 119
Labour Costs 134.20
Index Points		 121 124 125 135 132
Job Vacancies 68400.00
 64889 63949 70788 74025 68165
Wages in Manufacturing 106.60
Index Points		 158 154 156 107 160
Wage Growth 2.70
percent		 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.4
Population 5.30
Million		 5.3 5.3 5.36 5.36 5.41
Retirement Age Women 62.00
 62 62 62 62 62
Retirement Age Men 62.00
 62 62 62 62 62
Part Time Employment 663.10
Thousand		 644 651 661 656 653
Wages 45570.00
NOK/Month		 45200 45200 46000 46000 46600
Employment Change 0.30
percent		 0.42 0.41 0.38 0.37 0.33
Employment Rate 67.60
percent		 67.58 67.22 67.33 68 68.01
Full Time Employment 1889.30
Thousand		 1930 1909 1900 1921 1919
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40
percent		 2.5 2.3 1.9 2 1.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 109.70
Index Points		 109 109 110 111 112
Consumer Price Index CPI 108.90
Index Points		 109 109 109 111 112
Core Consumer Prices 106.40
Index Points		 107 107 107 108 111
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent		 2 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.9
GDP Deflator 109.29
Index Points		 111 111 112 112 112
Producer Prices 264.90
Index Points		 269 272 262 272 290
Producer Prices Change 22.80
percent		 21.1 12.5 7.5 4.5 3.2
Export Prices 154.90
Index Points		 151 153 154 153 154
Import Prices 142.90
Index Points		 144 146 146 146 146
Food Inflation 3.20
percent		 2 2.4 2.6 2.5 3.4
Inflation Rate Mom -0.40
percent		 0.16 0.5 0.17 0.18 0.4
CPI Housing Utilities 114.30
Index Points		 111 112 114 115 115
CPI Transportation 109.20
Index Points		 108 108 109 112 112
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.75
percent		 0.75 0.75 1 1 1.75
Interbank Rate 1.12
percent		 1.12 1.12 1.37 1.37 2.12
Money Supply M0 95740.00
NOK Million		 96230 92911 93116 92649 92805
Money Supply M1 2124180.00
NOK Million		 2128353 2126784 2126714 2126717 2126718
Money Supply M2 2278252.00
NOK Million		 2283833 2312056 2338574 2364405 2615717
Foreign Exchange Reserves 553510.00
NOK Million		 553203 551276 552047 551801 551834
Loans to Private Sector 1765840.00
NOK Million		 1777503 1791793 1804588 1816171 1885892
Deposit Interest Rate -0.25
percent		 -0.25 -0.25 0 0 0.75
Lending Rate 1.75
percent		 1.75 1.75 2 2 2.75
Loan Growth 5.70
percent		 5.56 5.28 5.06 4.88 4.18
Private Debt to GDP 286.78
percent		 278 278 272 272 266
Central Bank Balance Sheet 9067423.00
NOK Millions		 9188986 9310397 9456256 9595181 10896197
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 31806.96
NOK Million		 8900 27800 25400 6300 34600
Exports 88125.73
NOK Million		 67900 79200 80100 75400 85100
Imports 56318.77
NOK Million		 59000 59400 54700 69100 70200
Current Account 80938.00
NOK Million		 32900 45800 55100 60200 34200
Current Account to GDP 5.70
percent		 8.7 8.7 9.1 9.1 8.5
External Debt 5222383.00
NOK Million		 5219014 5220385 5221431 5220365 5220826
Terms of Trade 108.40
Index Points		 105 105 106 105 105
Capital Flows 139446.00
NOK Million		 70167 56970 58521 74171 67970
Crude Oil Production 1350.00
BBL/D/1K		 1482 1482 1482 1482 1482
Terrorism Index 0.00
 0.24 0.32 0.4 0.47 1.42
Weapons Sales 134.00
USD Million		 166 178 166 154 183
Foreign Direct Investment -33665.00
NOK Million		 -12461 -12205 -22263 -29800 -23926
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 36.20
percent		 34 34 32 32 30
Government Budget 4.40
percent of GDP		 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.1
Government Budget Value 3111.00
NOK Million		 3161 -7403 -15271 -1490 -25862
Government Spending 198133.00
NOK Million		 197268 201179 201510 203086 210744
Government Spending to GDP 50.30
percent		 50 50 49.7 49.7 49.4
Government Revenues 341375.00
NOK Million		 304527 322592 337676 342236 335149
Government Debt 633565.00
NOK Million		 638394 549114 626435 541557 517418
Fiscal Expenditure 338264.00
NOK Million		 301367 327821 352947 343726 361011
Military Expenditure 6329.60
USD Million		 6283 6380 6395 6410 6617
Asylum Applications 280.00
persons		 951 954 952 952 952
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 9.20
Index Points		 10.1 9.5 8 8.6 5.1
Manufacturing PMI 60.50
 54.1 54.5 54 54 52.5
Industrial Production -0.80
percent		 2.6 4 4.1 3.8 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -2.40
percent		 -0.7 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4
Manufacturing Production 1.50
percent		 3.2 4.5 4.2 4 3
Capacity Utilization 78.90
percent		 79.81 80.2 80.33 80.39 80.44
Changes in Inventories 35634.00
NOK Million		 30225 27726 27131 27607 28371
Bankruptcies 271.00
Companies and Individuals		 416 388 390 389 389
Car Registrations 15976.00
 15502 15227 15317 15311 15313
Internet Speed 23539.08
KBps		 28813 29776 30644 31522 38804
IP Addresses 2663340.00
IP		 2716964 2715078 2718238 2718019 2719570
Mining Production -2.80
percent		 1.66 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72
Steel Production 15.00
Thousand Tonnes		 47.86 45.56 45.96 46.46 46.41
Competitiveness Index 5.40
Points		 5.43 5.43 5.38 5.36 5.35
Competitiveness Rank 11.00
 12 12 11 11 11
Ease of Doing Business 8.00
 8 8 8 9 7
Electricity Production 9681.00
Gigawatt-hour		 11882 14591 12360 10636 12611
Corruption Index 85.00
Points		 86 85 86 86 86
Corruption Rank 3.00
 4 4 4 4 3
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 16.40
Index Points		 19 17 14 14 17
Retail Sales MoM 0.70
percent		 0.3 0.2 1.1 -2 0.6
Retail Sales YoY 0.10
percent		 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.4 2
Consumer Spending 369614.00
NOK Million		 367336 372462 373386 378854 390171
Disposable Personal Income 300593.00
NOK Million		 277523 292547 277844 298137 293381
Personal Savings 6.60
percent		 6.7 6.9 7 7.2 8.7
Consumer Credit 3375325.00
NOK Million		 3405744 3452903 3499821 3546597 4007416
Gasoline Prices 1.90
USD/Liter		 1.94 1.83 1.73 1.63 1.29
Household Spending -2.10
percent		 0.5 0.9 -0.7 0.4 0.5
Households Debt To Gdp 102.30
percent of GDP		 103 103 103 103 103
Households Debt To Income 197.54
percent		 198 199 200 200 205
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 116.40
Index Points		 119 119 118 118 118
Housing Starts 2805.00
units		 2453 2504 2511 2512 2512
New Home Sales 26383.00
 26139 26030 25929 25865 25688
Building Permits 2570.00
 2638 2604 2592 2595 2595
Home Ownership Rate 82.60
percent		 83.39 83.31 83.48 83.65 84.12
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent		 24 24 26 26 29
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52
percent		 38.52 38.52 38.75 39 39
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent		 25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 22.30
percent		 22.3 22.3 22.25 22 23
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10
percent		 14.17 14.17 14.38 14.45 14.44
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20
percent		 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -2.91
celsius		 8.92 -3.9 -7.82 3.82 0.12
Precipitation 163.15
mm		 94.68 100 78.35 90.37 85.12