Nigeria Private Sector Rises Faster in March

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI rose to 52.4 in April 2026 from 51.9 in March, remaining above the 50-point threshold and signaling a continued improvement in private sector conditions. Output expanded at a solid pace, supported by stronger demand, although rising fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions continued to constrain the pace of activity. New orders increased further, driven by higher customer numbers and improving demand. Sector performance was broadly positive, with activity rising in most areas except services. In addition, employment edged higher as firms responded to increased workloads. Purchasing activity extended its upward trend, while inventories rose at the fastest pace in five months as firms sought to secure inputs. Business sentiment improved, with firms expressing optimism about future output and planning expansion through new branches, market entry, and stock-building, though confidence remained tempered by ongoing cost pressures.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI eased to 51.9 in March 2026 from 53.2 in February, remaining above the 50-point mark and signaling continued expansion, though at a slower pace. Output growth eased as rising fuel costs limited production, while new orders increased sharply, supported by resilient underlying demand and new product launches. Sector performance was mixed: activity rose in agriculture and wholesale & retail, but declined in manufacturing and services. Employment expanded for the tenth straight month, albeit more slowly, and companies boosted purchasing activity, with only modest inventory accumulation. Inflationary pressures intensified, with input costs climbing at the fastest pace in 15 months and selling prices rising to the highest since December 2024. Business sentiment remained positive but eased to a four-month low, reflecting cautious optimism as firms planned investment and promotional initiatives to support future output.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI climbed to 53.2 in February 2026 from 49.7 in January, moving back above the 50-point threshold and signaling a renewed improvement in private sector conditions. The rebound was driven by a solid pickup in new orders as stronger demand and improved affordability supported business activity, while output expanded at the fastest pace in four months. Firms increased hiring for a ninth consecutive month, with employment rising at the quickest rate since October, while purchasing activity and inventories were stepped up to meet higher demand. However, backlogs of work accumulated sharply, reflecting payment delays, material shortages, and power supply challenges. On prices, inflationary pressures eased notably as currency appreciation helped slow the rise in input costs and selling prices to their weakest pace in over six years. Although business confidence improved from January, sentiment remained cautious as firms assessed the durability of the recovery.