Nigeria Private Sector Activity Rises to 9-Month High

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI rose to 54.1 in May 2026 from 52.4 in April, signaling the strongest improvement in private sector business conditions since August 2025. The increase was driven by sharper growth in both output and new orders. Stronger demand prompted firms to increase purchasing activity and inventories, while supplier performance improved due to prompt payments, better vendor coordination, and improved road conditions. Employment also continued to increase, although hiring growth remained modest despite sustained job creation over the past year. On the price front, higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict continued to lift input and selling prices, although both input cost and output price inflation eased to multi-month lows. Business confidence remained positive on expansion and product-launch plans, though sentiment slipped to a one-year low amid persistent cost pressures and economic uncertainty.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI rose to 52.4 in April 2026 from 51.9 in March, remaining above the 50-point threshold and signaling a continued improvement in private sector conditions. Output expanded at a solid pace, supported by stronger demand, although rising fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions continued to constrain the pace of activity. New orders increased further, driven by higher customer numbers and improving demand. Sector performance was broadly positive, with activity rising in most areas except services. In addition, employment edged higher as firms responded to increased workloads. Purchasing activity extended its upward trend, while inventories rose at the fastest pace in five months as firms sought to secure inputs. Business sentiment improved, with firms expressing optimism about future output and planning expansion through new branches, market entry, and stock-building, though confidence remained tempered by ongoing cost pressures.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI eased to 51.9 in March 2026 from 53.2 in February, remaining above the 50-point mark and signaling continued expansion, though at a slower pace. Output growth eased as rising fuel costs limited production, while new orders increased sharply, supported by resilient underlying demand and new product launches. Sector performance was mixed: activity rose in agriculture and wholesale & retail, but declined in manufacturing and services. Employment expanded for the tenth straight month, albeit more slowly, and companies boosted purchasing activity, with only modest inventory accumulation. Inflationary pressures intensified, with input costs climbing at the fastest pace in 15 months and selling prices rising to the highest since December 2024. Business sentiment remained positive but eased to a four-month low, reflecting cautious optimism as firms planned investment and promotional initiatives to support future output.