Nigeria Private Sector Growth Eases in March

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI eased to 51.9 in March 2026 from 53.2 in February, remaining above the 50-point mark and signaling continued expansion, though at a slower pace. Output growth eased as rising fuel costs limited production, while new orders increased sharply, supported by resilient underlying demand and new product launches. Sector performance was mixed: activity rose in agriculture and wholesale & retail, but declined in manufacturing and services. Employment expanded for the tenth straight month, albeit more slowly, and companies boosted purchasing activity, with only modest inventory accumulation. Inflationary pressures intensified, with input costs climbing at the fastest pace in 15 months and selling prices rising to the highest since December 2024. Business sentiment remained positive but eased to a four-month low, reflecting cautious optimism as firms planned investment and promotional initiatives to support future output.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI climbed to 53.2 in February 2026 from 49.7 in January, moving back above the 50-point threshold and signaling a renewed improvement in private sector conditions. The rebound was driven by a solid pickup in new orders as stronger demand and improved affordability supported business activity, while output expanded at the fastest pace in four months. Firms increased hiring for a ninth consecutive month, with employment rising at the quickest rate since October, while purchasing activity and inventories were stepped up to meet higher demand. However, backlogs of work accumulated sharply, reflecting payment delays, material shortages, and power supply challenges. On prices, inflationary pressures eased notably as currency appreciation helped slow the rise in input costs and selling prices to their weakest pace in over six years. Although business confidence improved from January, sentiment remained cautious as firms assessed the durability of the recovery.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI fell to 49.7 in January 2026 from 53.5 in December, dipping below the 50-point mark and signaling broadly weaker business conditions after more than a year of expansion. New orders stagnated following a 14-month growth streak, limiting output to only marginal gains as demand softened at the start of the year. Purchasing activity and input stocks also increased at slower rates, especially in wholesale and retail, while agriculture, manufacturing, and services still recorded modest growth. Employment continued to edge higher for an eighth straight month, helping firms reduce backlogs. On the price front, cost pressures intensified. Purchase prices and staff costs both rose more quickly, prompting companies to lift selling prices at the fastest pace in four months, though inflation remained mild compared with post-pandemic peaks. Despite the slowdown, companies remained cautiously optimistic, expecting demand and activity to recover in the months ahead.