Nigeria - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.90 5 5 -13.1 2 4.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 18.80 17 17 17.2 17.3 15 percent
Inflation Rate 11.23 10.9 10.5 10.8 12 11.2 percent
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 14 13.75 12 percent
Balance of Trade 887641.12 756173 -37000 787497 787656 -176000 NGN Millions
Government Debt to GDP 21.30 21 21 23 23 25 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 305.28
321 338 355 373 455
Stock Market 32540.17
points
35133 34717 34308 33903 32330
Government Bond 10y 15.19
percent
15 15.16 15.33 15.49 16.16
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.90
percent
5 5 -13.1 2 4.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50
percent
2 2.2 3 3 3.5
GDP 375.77
USD Billion
411 411 500 500 690
GDP Constant Prices 16580508.10
NGN Million
17937830 19007225 16589937 17077923 20262652
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2494431.00
NGN Million
2150551 2549308 2569264 2569264 2717690
GDP per capita 2412.41
USD
2461 2461 2550 2550 2690
GDP per capita PPP 5338.45
USD
5400 5400 5510 5510 5600
GDP From Agriculture 3789720.12
NGN Million
5241260 4966344 3591932 3903412 5294372
GDP From Construction 747860.30
NGN Million
546724 663422 670290 770296 707241
GDP From Manufacturing 1539566.75
NGN Million
1584543 1683931 1643431 1585754 1795155
GDP From Mining 1418073.13
NGN Million
1764885 1396310 1593533 1460615 1488536
GDP From Public Administration 380006.76
NGN Millions
372733 438358 369251 391407 467312
GDP From Services 6067614.53
NGN Millions
5915926 7091141 6249643 6249643 7559511
GDP From Transport 216351.50
NGN Millions
199758 258899 248781 222842 275999
GDP From Utilities 111806.01
NGN Million
93050 129100 62858 115160 137627
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.80
percent
17 17 17.2 17.3 15
Population 190.89
Million
193 193 198 198 200
Living Wage Family 131700.00
NGN/Month
138700 138700 139900 139900 139900
Living Wage Individual 40100.00
NGN/Month
40100 40100 40100 40100 40100
Employed Persons 69090.00
Thousand
68940 70418 68939 68939 74705
Employment Change 187226.00
Jobs
308102 110000 319332 312693 200000
Employment Rate 81.20
percent
75.8 86.7 75.81 76.29 87.6
Wages High Skilled 57200.00
NGN/Month
57600 57600 57600 57600 58700
Wages Low Skilled 25500.00
NGN/Month
27500 27500 27500 27500 28500
Youth Unemployment Rate 33.10
percent
37.82 20.8 37.14 36.28 18.9
Unemployed Persons 15998.00
Thousand
20783 12885 20585 20043 12465
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 11.23
percent
10.9 10.5 10.8 12 11.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 266.20
Index Points
267 272 280 292 340
Core Consumer Prices 250.05
Index Points
251 255 266 273 297
Core Inflation Rate 11.20
percent
9.6 9.1 11.02 11 7.2
Food Inflation 13.16
percent
11.6 14.8 11.26 11.14 7.1
Inflation Rate Mom 1.10
percent
1.05 1.2 1.04 1.04 0.7
GDP Deflator 185.15
Index Points
185 151 190 196 164
Cpi Housing Utilities 267.80
Index Points
269 271 272 273 274
CPI Transportation 248.50
Index Points
251 256 264 274 320
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 14.00
percent
14 14 14 13.75 12
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 20
Money Supply M0 1824826.08
NGN Million
1869808 1771520 1866266 1867018 1811767
Money Supply M1 10668002.07
NGN Million
10686240 10712186 10703121 10709346 10707147
Money Supply M2 24971101.93
NGN Million
25280737 25695535 26109262 26521158 30537028
Foreign Exchange Reserves 45909.00
USD Million
50900 55300 47770 48082 57000
Deposit Interest Rate 9.60
percent
9.6 9.6 9.6 9.35 7.6
Lending Rate 16.83
percent
16.83 16.83 16.83 16.58 14.83
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 887641.12
NGN Millions
756173 -37000 787497 787656 -176000
Exports 1482223.15
NGN Millions
1500944 400000 1501446 1501446 451000
Imports 594582.03
NGN Millions
744771 437000 713949 713790 627000
Current Account 4468.61
USD Million
3838 2560 3406 3579 3041
Current Account to GDP 2.00
percent
2.2 2.2 3.2 3.2 4.4
Terms of Trade 110.30
Index Points
98.74 102 98.74 98.74 107
Foreign Direct Investment 808.56
USD Million
926 948 892 890 1160
Capital Flows -10292.68
USD Million
5521 -1730 1382 -1238 2945
Gold Reserves 21.40
Tonnes
21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4
Crude Oil Production 1713.00
BBL/D/1K
1523 1540 1525 1526 1620
External Debt 22071.91
USD Million
25049 27770 29060 30397 40227
Terrorism Index 9.01
9.31 9.2 9.2 9.1 8.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 21.30
percent
21 21 23 23 25
Government Budget -5.10
percent of GDP
-3.72 -3.1 -4 -3.68 -2.3
Government Revenues 1096.90
NGN Billion
1028 1039 1019 1013 1235
Government Spending 795880.30
NGN Million
630242 813390 819757 819757 867114
Government Budget Value -2007.72
NGN Billion
-128 -105 -1736 -1742 -487
Fiscal Expenditure 3104.70
NGN Billion
1156 1145 2755 2755 1722
Military Expenditure 1650.80
USD Million
1718 2132 1721 1728 2486
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 17.70
Index Points
32 28 20.94 16.8 15
Industrial Production -3.30
percent
-0.91 -0.7 -0.65 1 3.5
Manufacturing Production 3.40
percent
0.09 2.7 -0.09 -0.12 3.7
Internet Speed 3853.93
KBps
3856 3856 3856 3856 3856
IP Addresses 209207.00
IP
185719 177142 183808 174870 174520
Manufacturing Pmi 57.10
56.9 56.3 57.05 57.03 51.3
Ease of Doing Business 145.00
144 144 135 134 155
Corruption Index 27.00
Points
27 29 26 26 28
Corruption Rank 148.00
146 138 148 148 133
Changes In Inventories 159351.20
NGN Million
141636 141000 142375 144399 161800
Competitiveness Index 3.30
Points
3.32 3.32 3.29 3.28 3.5
Competitiveness Rank 125.00
129 123 123 121 126
Composite Pmi 56.10
56.24 56 56.37 56.36 53
Capacity Utilization 54.50
percent
55.23 54 55.4 56.06 59
Services Pmi 58.00
58.2 57.3 57.9 57.9 52.75
Mni Business Sentiment 54.70
57.7 57.2 57.7 57.71 60
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -6.30
Index Points
-6 -5 -10.42 -8 3.23
Consumer Spending 11018143.01
NGN Million
10215254 11260542 11348687 11348687 12004301
Disposable Personal Income 19838426.72
NGN Million
19721930 19497106 19612688 19642636 21904999
Private Sector Credit 22261209.87
NGN Million
22209744 24769687 22198967 22195151 31091401
Gasoline Prices 0.48
USD/Liter
0.49 0.46 0.44 0.41 0.33
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 25.14
celsius
25.79 25.81 26.88 27.37 27.39