Nigeria | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 8.97 2 -12.8 3.3 8.8 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 14.20 14.4 14.2 14 13.9 13.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 15.91 15.7 15.1 14.9 15.6 11.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 14 13 13 13 10.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 150316.90 -41000 187059 187256 188996 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Government Debt to GDP 18.60 19 21 21 21 25 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 306.00 349 346 342 339 300 [+]
Stock Market 36688.75 36000 35600 35200 34900 30900 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 14.77 15.11 15.26 15.41 15.56 17.2 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 8.97 2 -12.8 3.3 8.8 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.40 1.5 2 2.9 3.4 3.5 percent [+]
GDP 405.10 377 316 294 272 690 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 18029404.12 18900000 16089703 15958274 15815625 2300000 NGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2380379.81 2750000 2045006 2050081 2004222 3020000 NGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 2457.80 2545 2401 2386 2372 2790 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 5438.90 5635 5305 5268 5231 5800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5189365.99 4580000 3688198 3687758 3687664 591000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 541311.33 629183 635130 661890 627203 626800 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1568854.70 1570000 1504712 1500335 1495820 1820000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 1787915.72 1270000 2334850 2312691 2270397 1360000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 369042.18 421649 400802 421215 408955 442248 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Services 6076676.80 7200000 6153754 6162595 5899160 7670000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Transport 197780.18 223000 212225 180396 201110 225000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Utilities 102660.20 65000 67193 99265 78676 114000 NGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 14.20 14.4 14.2 14 13.9 13.4 percent [+]
Population 185.99 186 190 190 190 193 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 131700.00 131700 131700 131700 131700 131700 NGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 40100.00 40100 40100 40100 40100 40100 NGN/Month [+]
Employed Persons 69602.60 68902 69064 68778 68368 74705 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 187226.00 60000 266864 281930 308102 200000 Jobs [+]
Employment Rate 85.80 86.2 90.47 91.71 92.77 87.6 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 11549.31 13065 8064 6924 5907 12465 Thousand [+]
Wages Low Skilled 25500.00 25500 25500 25500 25500 25500 NGN/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 25.20 21.8 17.51 15.31 13.38 18.9 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 15.91 15.7 15.1 14.9 15.6 11.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 243.00 260 248 250 251 360 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 230.86 258 236 237 238 357 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 12.14 11.5 10.9 10.1 9.6 7.2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 20.31 16.4 17.43 16.38 15.56 7.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.76 1.4 1.06 1.05 1.05 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 165.48 146 164 164 164 164 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 228.20 239 230 230 230 306 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 14 13 13 13 10.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50 22.5 21.71 21.24 20.79 20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1781046.41 1843634 1837663 1832690 1827897 1811767 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10064248.19 9876784 9852241 9825869 9799483 9567391 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 21953993.84 21807223 21778499 21749407 21720360 21461887 NGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 33689.00 35100 36332 37000 38500 21000 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.50 10.15 9.51 9.67 9.82 11.1 percent [+]
Lending Rate 17.88 16.8 17.54 17.49 17.43 16 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 17.75 17.75 15.97 15.25 14.89 14.52 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 150316.90 -41000 187059 187256 188996 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Exports 994272.95 350000 945058 922286 900472 451000 NGN Millions [+]
Imports 843956.05 391000 770846 746849 724052 627000 NGN Millions [+]
Current Account 1414.21 2020 2146 2339 2294 3041 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.80 0.8 2.2 2.2 0.94 4.4 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 101.69 100 98.75 98.74 98.74 107 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 891.25 852 1129 1201 1209 1160 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 4341.73 -2627 411 -883 334 2945 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1742.00 1510 1736 1747 1760 1620 BBL/D/1K [+]
External Debt 15050.00 16549 17004 17294 17466 16486 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 9.01 9.4 9.53 9.62 9.71 8.9 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 18.60 19 21 21 21 25 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.10 -3.8 -2.44 -2.46 -2.49 -2.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Revenues 963.23 992 1030 1040 1028 1235 NGN Billion [+]
Government Spending 804097.38 968798 844360 871661 848020 1163507 NGN Million [+]
Government Budget Value -646.54 -484 -201 -146 -128 -487 NGN Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1609.78 1476 1231 1186 1156 1722 NGN Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 2090.80 2050 1927 1909 1892 2486 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence -2.60 -8 14.06 17.14 18.57 3.18 [+]
Industrial Production -1.10 2.2 1.55 1.12 1.11 3.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.40 1.7 4.99 5.3 5.49 3.7 percent [+]
Internet Speed 3853.93 4205 3457 4010 4229 3616 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 209207.00 202079 202218 199781 198905 186622 IP [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 55.00 49.3 52.48 51.69 51.16 51.3 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 145.00 169 163 161 159 155 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 29 27 27 26 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 138 136 135 135 133 [+]
Changes In Inventories 147184.60 137000 126892 125755 122940 161800 NGN Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.30 3.31 3.31 3.31 3.31 3.5 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 125.00 123 126 126 126 126 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.80 49.7 53.18 52.82 52.66 53 [+]
Capacity Utilization 48.50 53 53.17 54.56 55.75 59 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 54.70 56.8 59.62 59.68 59.71 60 [+]
Services Pmi 55.30 48.8 53.63 52.93 52.45 52.75 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.50 -10 -6.95 -7.58 -8.53 3.23 [+]
Consumer Spending 10657885.32 11750000 10034245 10124181 10359623 12900000 NGN Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 19990333.51 18747218 18520608 18248201 17983199 21904999 NGN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 22021899.19 22983034 21942772 21896988 21851049 31091401 NGN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.41 0.6 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 6 5 5 5 8 percent [+]