Nigeria - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 8.97 4.2 4.8 5 5 4.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 18.80 14.2 14 13.9 14 13.4 percent
Inflation Rate 15.37 15.1 14.9 13.4 14.8 11.2 percent
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 12 percent
Balance of Trade 589958.89 374004 331704 310272 -37000 -17600 NGN Millions
Government Debt to GDP 18.60 21 21 21 21 25 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 305.20
366 427 497 579 1064
Stock Market 45092.83
points
42152 40410 38740 37144 26506
Government Bond 10y 13.39
percent
15.26 15.41 15.56 17.67 17.2
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 8.97
percent
4.2 4.8 5 5 4.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.40
percent
2 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.5
GDP 405.10
USD Billion
427 397 367 411 690
GDP Constant Prices 18029404.12
NGN Million
17548421 17473682 17350229 19500000 2300000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2380379.81
NGN Million
2045006 2050081 2004222 2870000 3020000
GDP per capita 2457.80
USD
2516 2482 2448 2561 2790
GDP per capita PPP 5438.90
USD
5570 5494 5418 5690 5800
GDP From Agriculture 5189365.99
NGN Million
3349863 3755937 5156354 5360000 591000
GDP From Construction 541311.33
NGN Million
620200 659579 584892 609510 607684
GDP From Manufacturing 1568854.70
NGN Million
1559028 1553162 1548324 1610000 1820000
GDP From Mining 1787915.72
NGN Million
1745709 1596329 1667033 1320000 1360000
GDP From Public Administration 369042.18
NGN Millions
392209 418209 399713 422310 437081
GDP From Services 5857352.47
NGN Millions
6148590 6171927 5836128 7400000 7670000
GDP From Transport 197780.18
NGN Millions
212346 181102 193893 224000 225000
GDP From Utilities 92128.79
NGN Million
69909 98986 88385 86000 114000
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.80
percent
14.2 14 13.9 14 13.4
Population 185.99
Million
190 190 190 190 193
Living Wage Family 131700.00
NGN/Month
131700 131700 131700 131700 131700
Living Wage Individual 40100.00
NGN/Month
40100 40100 40100 40100 40100
Employed Persons 69090.00
Thousand
68480 67888 67727 70418 74705
Employment Change 187226.00
Jobs
266864 281930 308102 110000 200000
Employment Rate 81.20
percent
77.49 76.41 75.8 86.7 87.6
Wages Low Skilled 25500.00
NGN/Month
25500 25500 25500 25500 25500
Youth Unemployment Rate 33.10
percent
36.51 37.47 37.82 20.8 18.9
Unemployed Persons 15998.00
Thousand
19370 20305 20783 12885 12465
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 15.37
percent
15.1 14.9 13.4 14.8 11.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 246.40
Index Points
250 252 253 301 360
Core Consumer Prices 233.83
Index Points
237 239 240 298 357
Core Inflation Rate 12.10
percent
10.9 10.1 9.6 9.1 7.2
Food Inflation 19.42
percent
17.91 16.76 15.87 14.8 7.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.59
percent
1.01 0.98 0.95 1.2 0.7
GDP Deflator 165.45
Index Points
165 165 165 151 164
CPI Transportation 232.00
Index Points
235 236 236 234 306
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 14.00
percent
14 14 14 14 12
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50
percent
22.05 21.58 21.13 22 20
Money Supply M0 1896156.51
NGN Million
1857721 1853268 1848530 1771520 1811767
Money Supply M1 10115050.31
NGN Million
10117862 10099541 10077430 10054748 9787958
Money Supply M2 22311118.02
NGN Million
22305203 22279669 22250031 22220006 21864439
Foreign Exchange Reserves 37920.00
USD Million
36332 37000 38500 39000 21000
Deposit Interest Rate 7.50
percent
9.53 9.47 9.42 9.34 11.1
Lending Rate 17.88
percent
17.72 17.66 17.6 16 16
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 589958.89
NGN Millions
374004 331704 310272 -37000 -17600
Exports 1287244.60
NGN Millions
1145759 1117244 1090044 400000 451000
Imports 697285.71
NGN Millions
706973 693499 667678 437000 627000
Current Account 2292.79
USD Million
2098 2302 2282 2560 3041
Current Account to GDP -1.80
percent
2.2 2.2 0.16 2.2 4.4
Terms of Trade 101.69
Index Points
98.75 98.74 98.74 102 107
Foreign Direct Investment 798.35
USD Million
1061 1074 1134 948 1160
Capital Flows 3106.73
USD Million
-810 -1298 36.8 -1730 2945
Gold Reserves 21.37
Tonnes
21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37
Crude Oil Production 1636.00
BBL/D/1K
1654 1680 1698 1540 1620
External Debt 15352.13
USD Million
16169 16295 16354 16357 15284
Terrorism Index 9.01
9.3 9.3 9.31 9.2 8.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 18.60
percent
21 21 21 21 25
Government Budget -2.10
percent of GDP
-2.22 -2.28 -2.35 -3.1 -2.3
Government Revenues 883.81
NGN Billion
1030 1040 1028 1039 1235
Government Spending 804097.38
NGN Million
847185 868278 866912 997862 1163507
Government Budget Value -424.88
NGN Billion
-201 -146 -128 -105 -487
Fiscal Expenditure 1308.69
NGN Billion
1231 1186 1156 1145 1722
Military Expenditure 2090.80
USD Million
1931 1936 1940 2132 2486
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 17.70
Index Points
-1.9 1 2.2 2 3.18
Industrial Production -1.10
percent
1.55 1.12 1.11 3 3.5
Manufacturing Production -2.80
percent
-0.72 0.35 1.25 2.7 3.7
Internet Speed 3853.93
KBps
3457 4010 4229 3522 3616
IP Addresses 209207.00
IP
202218 199781 198905 197103 186622
Manufacturing Pmi 59.30
56.54 55.39 54.45 50.2 51.3
Ease of Doing Business 145.00
147 141 136 168 155
Corruption Index 28.00
Points
26 26 27 29 28
Corruption Rank 136.00
133 134 135 138 133
Changes In Inventories 147184.60
NGN Million
126892 125755 122940 141000 161800
Competitiveness Index 3.30
Points
3.31 3.31 3.31 3.41 3.5
Competitiveness Rank 125.00
126 126 126 123 126
Composite Pmi 56.80
53.71 53.15 52.88 50.5 53
Capacity Utilization 48.50
percent
53.17 54.56 55.75 54 59
Services Pmi 62.10
60.48 58.64 57.25 50.75 52.75
Mni Business Sentiment 54.70
59.62 59.68 59.71 57.2 60
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 1.00
Index Points
3.11 1.81 -1.83 -5 3.23
Consumer Spending 10657885.32
NGN Million
10034245 10124181 10359623 12000000 12900000
Disposable Personal Income 19990333.51
NGN Million
18520608 18248201 17983199 19497106 21904999
Private Sector Credit 21928917.21
NGN Million
21790553 21740253 21693382 24769687 31091401
Gasoline Prices 0.47
USD/Liter
0.45 0.45 0.45 0.62 0.7
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 8
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 25.14
celsius
26.82 28.74 25.79 25.81 27.39