Nigeria - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -13.40 4.8 5 5 -13.1 4.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 18.80 17 17 17 17.5 15 percent
Inflation Rate 12.48 13.4 12.7 14.8 12.2 11.2 percent
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 12 percent
Balance of Trade 761029.15 495572 313416 -37000 258840 -176000 NGN Millions
Government Debt to GDP 21.30 21 21 21 23 25 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 305.70
355 414 482 561 1033
Stock Market 39723.85
points
38810 37118 35499 33953 28408
Government Bond 10y 13.40
percent
14.07 14.5 14.95 15.41 17.4
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -13.40
percent
4.8 5 5 -13.1 4.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.94
percent
2.9 3.4 3.4 3 3.5
GDP 405.10
USD Billion
397 368 411 500 690
GDP Constant Prices 16244997.20
NGN Million
16716347 18294763 19459527 16732347 20744829
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2380379.81
NGN Million
2414895 2420846 2488387 2451791 2652745
GDP per capita 2457.80
USD
2520 2561 2561 2750 2790
GDP per capita PPP 5438.90
USD
5577 5502 5690 5710 5800
GDP From Agriculture 4859436.87
NGN Million
3799395 5277585 5024658 5005220 5356536
GDP From Construction 650767.19
NGN Million
704691 550514 671211 670290 715545
GDP From Manufacturing 1595563.65
NGN Million
1551346 1595525 1703703 1643431 1816233
GDP From Mining 1547119.11
NGN Million
1497803 1777117 1412705 1593533 1506014
GDP From Public Administration 358496.20
NGN Millions
406702 375316 443505 369251 472799
GDP From Services 6938494.45
NGN Millions
6164789 5956927 7174403 7146649 7648273
GDP From Transport 241534.71
NGN Millions
180270 201142 261939 248781 279240
GDP From Utilities 61027.25
NGN Million
104149 93695 130616 62858 139243
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.80
percent
17 17 17 17.5 15
Population 185.99
Million
190 190 190 186 193
Living Wage Family 131700.00
NGN/Month
138700 138700 138700 139900 139900
Living Wage Individual 40100.00
NGN/Month
40100 40100 40100 40100 40100
Employed Persons 69090.00
Thousand
69722 69722 70418 69722 74705
Employment Change 187226.00
Jobs
281930 308102 110000 319332 200000
Employment Rate 81.20
percent
76.41 75.8 86.7 75.81 87.6
Wages High Skilled 57200.00
NGN/Month
57600 57600 57600 57600 58500
Wages Low Skilled 25500.00
NGN/Month
27500 27500 27500 27500 28500
Youth Unemployment Rate 33.10
percent
31.3 31.3 20.8 31.3 18.9
Unemployed Persons 15998.00
Thousand
14792 14792 12885 14792 12465
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 12.48
percent
13.4 12.7 14.8 12.2 11.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 254.50
Index Points
266 272 283 283 353
Core Consumer Prices 241.26
Index Points
245 251 255 269 297
Core Inflation Rate 10.90
percent
10.1 9.6 9.1 13.33 7.2
Food Inflation 14.80
percent
13.8 11.6 14.8 14.28 7.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80
percent
0.99 0.94 1.2 0.95 0.7
GDP Deflator 166.02
Index Points
166 166 151 167 164
CPI Transportation 240.40
Index Points
250 255 266 267 333
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 14.00
percent
14 14 14 14 12
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 22 22.5 20
Money Supply M0 1668378.21
NGN Million
1919716 1896216 1771520 1900514 1811767
Money Supply M1 10912604.10
NGN Million
10183724 10253100 10364963 10343297 10326768
Money Supply M2 24303049.86
NGN Million
24174489 24146380 24115018 24083303 23738310
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47360.00
USD Million
42600 43100 44000 54362 21000
Deposit Interest Rate 9.60
percent
9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 7.6
Lending Rate 17.35
percent
17.35 17.35 17.35 17.35 15.35
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 761029.15
NGN Millions
495572 313416 -37000 258840 -176000
Exports 1398471.26
NGN Millions
1200713 1163022 400000 1172773 451000
Imports 637442.11
NGN Millions
705141 849606 437000 913933 627000
Current Account 3656.15
USD Million
1854 1854 2560 1854 3041
Current Account to GDP -1.80
percent
2.2 2.2 2.2 3.2 4.4
Terms of Trade 110.30
Index Points
98.74 98.74 102 98.74 107
Foreign Direct Investment 959.52
USD Million
1074 1134 948 1187 1160
Capital Flows -3858.67
USD Million
3724 3724 -1730 3724 2945
Gold Reserves 21.40
Tonnes
21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4
Crude Oil Production 1686.00
BBL/D/1K
1645 1559 1540 1579 1620
External Debt 18913.44
USD Million
16581 16263 16361 16330 16338
Terrorism Index 9.01
9.3 9.31 9.2 9.2 8.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 21.30
percent
21 21 21 23 25
Government Budget -2.10
percent of GDP
-1.78 -1.77 -3.1 -1.75 -2.3
Government Revenues 1096.90
NGN Billion
1040 1028 1039 908 1235
Government Spending 804097.38
NGN Million
815757 817767 840582 828220 896103
Government Budget Value -2007.72
NGN Billion
-146 -128 -105 -300 -487
Fiscal Expenditure 3104.70
NGN Billion
1186 1156 1145 1208 1722
Military Expenditure 1650.80
USD Million
2088 2091 2132 2112 2486
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 17.70
Index Points
1 2.2 2 3.43 3.18
Industrial Production -3.30
percent
-4.45 -4.46 3 -4.46 3.5
Manufacturing Production 0.70
percent
0.69 -2.84 2.7 -2.84 3.7
Internet Speed 3853.93
KBps
3856 3856 3856 3856 3856
IP Addresses 209207.00
IP
177379 185719 177142 183808 174520
Manufacturing Pmi 56.90
53.97 53.22 50.2 54.56 51.3
Ease of Doing Business 145.00
145 145 168 145 155
Corruption Index 27.00
Points
27 27 29 27 28
Corruption Rank 148.00
145 146 138 148 133
Changes In Inventories 147184.60
NGN Million
144938 141636 141000 142375 161800
Competitiveness Index 3.30
Points
3.31 3.31 3.31 3.39 3.5
Competitiveness Rank 125.00
129 129 123 121 126
Composite Pmi 58.10
55.95 54.87 50.5 55.02 53
Capacity Utilization 54.50
percent
56.72 56.95 54 57.06 59
Services Pmi 57.50
54.2 54.42 50.75 54.73 52.75
Mni Business Sentiment 54.70
57.69 57.7 57.2 57.7 60
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -6.40
Index Points
-8.83 -8.86 -5 -8.85 3.23
Consumer Spending 10657885.32
NGN Million
10812425 10839069 11141476 10977622 11877371
Disposable Personal Income 19990333.51
NGN Million
19950530 19962223 19497106 19972228 21904999
Private Sector Credit 22443791.08
NGN Million
23045397 23172324 24769687 23277762 31091401
Gasoline Prices 0.48
USD/Liter
0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.27
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 8
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 25.14
celsius
28.74 25.79 25.81 26.88 27.39