Nigeria | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.23 7.9 2 -7.1 -7.1 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 14.20 14.3 14.4 14 14 13.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 16.01 16.1 15.7 15.1 14.9 11.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 13 13 10.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 150316.90 -20000 -41000 207062 207195 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Government Debt to GDP 18.60 19 19 21 21 25 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 353.00 361 358 354 350 310 [+]
Stock Market 35361.52 32100 31800 31400 31100 27500 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 16.14 16.22 16.38 16.54 16.7 18.47 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.23 7.9 2 -7.1 -7.1 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.55 1.8 1.5 2 2.9 3.5 percent [+]
GDP 405.10 377 377 379 375 690 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16450432.89 17800000 18900000 16089703 15958274 2300000 NGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2129447.00 2700000 2750000 2172633 2285208 3020000 NGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 2457.80 2545 2545 2460 2462 2790 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 5438.90 5635 5635 5423 5420 5800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3745091.59 5270000 4580000 3688198 3687758 591000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 694618.72 563560 623043 641513 634925 617744 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1529172.70 1520000 1570000 1547262 1535252 1820000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 2376109.16 1260000 1270000 2334850 2312691 1360000 NGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 400889.27 384123 421649 400802 421215 442248 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Services 6031847.57 650000 7200000 6038252 6579048 7670000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Transport 177693.89 192000 223000 213733 181274 225000 NGN Millions [+]
GDP From Utilities 56502.08 62000 65000 57893 82204 114000 NGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 14.20 14.3 14.4 14 14 13.4 percent [+]
Population 185.99 186 186 186 190 203 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 11549.31 13485 13065 8064 6924 12465 Thousand [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 25.20 22.5 21.8 29.56 30.32 18.9 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 132264.00 132372 132372 132372 132372 132372 NGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 43415.20 43415 43415 43415 43415 43415 NGN/Month [+]
Employed Persons 69602.60 67184 68902 70923 71178 74705 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 187226.00 74000 60000 171362 146682 200000 Jobs [+]
Employment Rate 85.80 85.7 86.2 88.97 90.07 87.6 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 16.01 16.1 15.7 15.1 14.9 11.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 239.30 252 260 258 266 360 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 227.29 249 258 241 247 357 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 12.30 19.7 18.9 13.59 13.45 8.2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 20.25 17.9 16.4 20.55 20.6 7.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.97 1.5 1.4 0.99 0.99 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 165.48 140 146 177 177 164 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 224.60 233 239 239 245 306 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 13 13 10.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50 22.5 22.5 21.54 21.07 20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1769750.47 1751100 1782123 1775956 1770729 1811767 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10325980.95 10284157 10305591 10307165 10307285 10307294 NGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 22200318.98 22181484 22179507 22151677 22122595 21834585 NGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 31800.00 21000 20000 31290 31086 21000 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.50 10.15 10.15 8.29 8.23 8.41 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.00 0 0 2.87 3.97 9.41 percent [+]
Lending Rate 17.65 16.8 16.8 17.49 17.44 16 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 150316.90 -20000 -41000 207062 207195 -17600 NGN Millions [+]
Exports 994272.95 310000 350000 972697 972699 451000 NGN Millions [+]
Imports 843956.05 330000 391000 768513 768571 627000 NGN Millions [+]
Current Account 1414.21 1489 2020 1884 1853 3041 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.80 0.8 0.8 2.2 2.2 4.4 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 100.03 95 100 99.02 99.02 107 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 853.87 755 852 1090 1039 1160 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 4341.73 -4562 -2627 1257 -101 2945 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 21.37 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 1742.00 1480 1510 1736 1747 1620 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 9.31 9.4 9.4 9.53 9.62 8.9 [+]
External Debt 15050.00 12200 16549 17004 17294 16486 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 18.60 19 19 21 21 25 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.10 -3.8 -3.8 -2.44 -2.46 -2.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Revenues 1049.38 1336 945 853 809 1235 NGN Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 2090.80 2050 2050 2059 2068 2486 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 720290.00 1055934 968798 688336 737304 1163507 NGN Million [+]
Government Budget Value 3.22 -50.62 -784 -240 -330 -487 NGN Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1046.16 1387 1729 1105 1320 1722 NGN Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence -1.50 -9 -8 22.09 23.59 3.18 [+]
Industrial Production -1.10 1.5 2.2 1.59 1.27 3.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.40 1.8 1.7 0.52 0.3 3.7 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 54.70 55.5 56.8 57.67 57.69 60 [+]
Services Pmi 54.10 48 48.8 51.27 50.71 52.75 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 53.60 46 49.3 49.95 49.5 51.3 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 169.00 169 169 169 169 155 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 29 29 27 27 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 138 138 141 140 133 [+]
Changes In Inventories 125617.00 145000 137000 126858 128678 161800 NGN Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.39 3.46 3.46 3.35 3.32 3.5 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 127.00 123 123 128 130 126 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.00 48.8 49.7 61.68 63.88 53 [+]
Capacity Utilization 48.50 52 53 47.73 47.96 59 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -17.00 -13 -10 -20.46 -21.2 3.23 [+]
Consumer Spending 11517019.95 11000000 11750000 9931186 10781093 12900000 NGN Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 19149057.00 17970299 18747218 19186824 19185736 21904999 NGN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 22172372.60 21583278 22983034 22218489 22174614 31091401 NGN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.48 0.58 0.6 0.46 0.46 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 5 6 5 5 8 percent [+]