Nigeria - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -13.40 5 5 -13.1 1.5 4.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 18.80 17 17 15.2 14.1 15 percent
Inflation Rate 11.61 9 10.5 11.1 12 11.2 percent
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 14 14 12 percent
Balance of Trade 837066.25 767759 -37000 762978 763515 -176000 NGN Millions
Government Debt to GDP 21.30 21 21 23 23 25 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 304.85
364 422 488 565 1015
Stock Market 36603.44
points
36140 34729 33376 32074 27356
Government Bond 10y 14.01
percent
14.56 15.02 15.5 15.99 18.13
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -13.40
percent
5 5 -13.1 1.5 4.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.94
percent
3.4 3.4 3 3 3.5
GDP 375.77
USD Billion
411 411 500 500 690
GDP Constant Prices 16244997.20
NGN Million
18294763 19459527 16732347 16971747 20744829
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2380379.81
NGN Million
2420846 2461313 2451791 2451791 2623882
GDP per capita 2412.41
USD
2461 2461 2550 2550 2690
GDP per capita PPP 5338.45
USD
5400 5400 5510 5510 5600
GDP From Agriculture 3487312.92
NGN Million
5277585 5024658 3591932 3857444 5356536
GDP From Construction 650767.19
NGN Million
550514 671211 670290 715457 715545
GDP From Manufacturing 1595563.65
NGN Million
1595525 1703703 1643431 1575048 1816233
GDP From Mining 1547119.11
NGN Million
1777117 1412705 1593533 1520687 1506014
GDP From Public Administration 358496.20
NGN Millions
375316 443505 369251 412916 472799
GDP From Services 6067614.53
NGN Millions
5956927 7174403 6249643 6258977 7648273
GDP From Transport 241534.71
NGN Millions
201142 261939 248781 183025 279240
GDP From Utilities 61027.25
NGN Million
93695 130616 62858 105740 139243
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.80
percent
17 17 15.2 14.1 15
Population 190.89
Million
190 190 197 198 193
Living Wage Family 131700.00
NGN/Month
138700 138700 139900 131700 139900
Living Wage Individual 40100.00
NGN/Month
40100 40100 40100 40100 40100
Employed Persons 69090.00
Thousand
68940 70418 68939 68939 74705
Employment Change 187226.00
Jobs
308102 110000 319332 312693 200000
Employment Rate 81.20
percent
75.8 86.7 75.81 76.29 87.6
Wages High Skilled 57200.00
NGN/Month
57600 57600 57600 57200 58500
Wages Low Skilled 25500.00
NGN/Month
27500 27500 27500 27500 28500
Youth Unemployment Rate 33.10
percent
37.82 20.8 37.14 36.28 18.9
Unemployed Persons 15998.00
Thousand
20783 12885 20585 20043 12465
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 11.61
percent
9 10.5 11.1 12 11.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 257.30
Index Points
263 272 280 292 340
Core Consumer Prices 243.61
Index Points
251 255 266 270 297
Core Inflation Rate 10.70
percent
9.6 9.1 11.02 11 7.2
Food Inflation 13.45
percent
11.6 14.8 11.5 11.39 7.1
Inflation Rate Mom 1.10
percent
1.05 1.2 1.04 1.04 0.7
GDP Deflator 166.02
Index Points
166 151 167 167 164
Cpi Housing Utilities 262.80
Index Points
266 268 269 269 269
CPI Transportation 242.60
Index Points
247 256 265 275 320
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 14.00
percent
14 14 14 14 12
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50
percent
22.5 22 22.5 22.5 20
Money Supply M0 1930695.53
NGN Million
1891011 1771520 1894030 1941244 1811767
Money Supply M1 11226313.09
NGN Million
11181327 11181369 11182039 11182257 11182319
Money Supply M2 25169014.19
NGN Million
25691551 26131580 26570589 27007600 31268160
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47630.00
USD Million
50900 55300 52948 53832 21000
Deposit Interest Rate 9.60
percent
9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 7.6
Lending Rate 17.08
percent
17.08 17.08 17.08 17.08 15.08
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 837066.25
NGN Millions
767759 -37000 762978 763515 -176000
Exports 1441774.39
NGN Millions
1518530 400000 1518489 1518493 451000
Imports 604708.14
NGN Millions
750772 437000 755511 754978 627000
Current Account 4468.61
USD Million
3838 2560 3406 3579 3041
Current Account to GDP 2.00
percent
2.2 2.2 3.2 3.2 4.4
Terms of Trade 110.30
Index Points
98.74 102 98.74 98.74 107
Foreign Direct Investment 808.56
USD Million
926 948 892 890 1160
Capital Flows -10292.68
USD Million
5521 -1730 1382 -1238 2945
Gold Reserves 21.40
Tonnes
21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4
Crude Oil Production 1511.00
BBL/D/1K
1523 1540 1525 1526 1620
External Debt 22071.91
USD Million
25049 27770 29060 30397 40227
Terrorism Index 9.01
9.31 9.2 9.2 9.08 8.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 21.30
percent
21 21 23 23 25
Government Budget -5.10
percent of GDP
-3.72 -3.1 -4 -3.68 -2.3
Government Revenues 1096.90
NGN Billion
1028 1039 1019 1013 1235
Government Spending 804097.38
NGN Million
817767 831437 828220 828220 886353
Government Budget Value -2007.72
NGN Billion
-128 -105 -1736 -1742 -487
Fiscal Expenditure 3104.70
NGN Billion
1156 1145 2755 2755 1722
Military Expenditure 1650.80
USD Million
1718 2132 1721 1728 2486
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 17.70
Index Points
32 28 20.94 16.8 15
Industrial Production -3.30
percent
-0.91 3 -0.65 -0.72 3.5
Manufacturing Production 0.70
percent
0.09 2.7 -0.09 -0.12 3.7
Internet Speed 3853.93
KBps
3856 3856 3856 3856 3856
IP Addresses 209207.00
IP
185719 177142 183808 174870 174520
Manufacturing Pmi 57.00
56.95 50.2 56.89 56.9 51.3
Ease of Doing Business 145.00
144 168 135 134 155
Corruption Index 27.00
Points
27 29 26 26 28
Corruption Rank 148.00
146 138 148 148 133
Changes In Inventories 147184.60
NGN Million
141636 141000 142375 144399 161800
Competitiveness Index 3.30
Points
3.32 3.32 3.29 3.28 3.5
Competitiveness Rank 125.00
129 123 123 121 126
Composite Pmi 58.40
58.32 50.5 58.34 58.34 53
Capacity Utilization 54.50
percent
55.23 54 55.4 56.06 59
Services Pmi 57.50
57.42 50.8 57.39 57.39 52.75
Mni Business Sentiment 54.70
57.7 57.2 57.7 57.71 60
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -6.30
Index Points
-6 -5 -10.42 -10.24 3.23
Consumer Spending 10657885.32
NGN Million
10839069 11020253 10977622 10977622 11748141
Disposable Personal Income 19990333.51
NGN Million
19962223 19497106 19972228 19971869 21904999
Private Sector Credit 22206743.91
NGN Million
22228523 24769687 22224249 22221074 31091401
Gasoline Prices 0.47
USD/Liter
0.45 0.42 0.4 0.37 0.21
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 25.14
celsius
25.79 25.81 26.88 27.37 27.39