Malaysia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Malaysia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Malaysia economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.30 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.1 percent
Inflation Rate 3.50 3.1 2.8 3 2.7 3.1 percent
Interest Rate 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.5 3.25 3.5 percent
Balance of Trade 7300.00 5900 8000 7594 9618 5000 MYR Million
Government Debt to GDP 53.20 56 56 52.97 56 53 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 3.89
3.99 4.02 4.05 4.08 4.2
Stock Market 1854.83
points
1800 1775 1750 1726 1542
Government Bond 10Y 4.02
percent
4.01 4.09 4.16 4.24 4.56
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.90
percent
5.2 5.5 4.8 4.3 5.6
GDP 296.54
USD Billion
321 321 321 321 349
GDP Constant Prices 307861.00
MYR Million
314000 297000 307020 314000 340000
Gross National Product 301.20
MYR Billion
304 304 301 323 353
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 72188.00
MYR Million
73100 78300 72777 74800 84000
GDP per capita 11028.20
USD
11621 11621 11173 11256 11718
GDP per capita PPP 25660.50
USD
25596 25788 25980 26172 27081
GDP From Agriculture 25571.00
MYR Million
20800 22700 25338 23900 25100
GDP From Construction 13315.00
MYR Million
14900 13400 13623 15700 18600
GDP From Manufacturing 70289.00
MYR Million
66400 69200 68191 71400 77300
GDP From Mining 25339.00
MYR Million
26100 26900 23980 28000 31100
GDP From Services 168736.00
MYR Million
160000 160000 162609 175000 191000
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.30
percent
3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.1
Employed Persons 14640.10
Thousand
14820 14909 14661 14885 15500
Unemployed Persons 505.80
Thousand
510 510 507 509 511
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.10
percent
67.7 67.7 67.65 67.52 67.9
Job Vacancies 401835.00
280650 280650 383740 280000 327000
Minimum Wages 1000.00
MYR/Month
1100 1100 1100 1100 1400
Wages in Manufacturing 3347.00
MYR/Month
3400 3450 3500 3550 4100
Population 31.70
Million
32.36 32.48 32.61 32.73 33.72
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 59 59 58
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 59 59 58
Wages 2463.00
MYR/Month
2620 2620 2620 2620 2870
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.50
percent
3.1 2.8 3 2.7 3.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 120.90
Index Points
120 120 120 120 124
GDP Deflator 116.00
Index Points
119 119 116 123 132
Producer Prices 107.80
Index Points
107 107 108 108 109
Import Prices 115.50
Index Points
122 124 115 131 152
Food Inflation 4.10
percent
3.8 3.8 4.1 3.8 4.1
Producer Prices Change 0.30
percent
7 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.7
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.7 2.8 2.43 2.9 2.5
Export Prices 112.90
Index Points
112 113 113 113 116
CPI Housing Utilities 117.70
Index Points
118 118 118 118 117
CPI Transportation 119.50
Index Points
116 117 110 118 123
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.25
percent
3.25 3.25 3.5 3.25 3.5
Interbank Rate 3.44
percent
3.5 3.5 3.57 3.5 4
Money Supply M0 92567.54
MYR Million
95600 95600 91917 101120 119500
Money Supply M1 422744.75
MYR Million
427559 428459 428536 428427 426456
Money Supply M2 1716615.94
MYR Million
1800000 1800000 1741091 1870000 2050000
Money Supply M3 1720561.03
MYR Million
1732603 1739619 1743612 1745741 1739224
Foreign Exchange Reserves 104242.72
USD Million
101200 101200 105341 102500 106000
Banks Balance Sheet 2495948.30
MYR Million
2506961 2509580 2508659 2506300 2468175
Loans to Private Sector 1744947.26
MYR Million
1778534 1808080 1833516 1855135 1938426
Deposit Interest Rate 3.00
percent
3 3 3.37 3 4
Cash Reserve Ratio 3.50
percent
3.5 3.5 3.65 3.5 3.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 449804.17
MYR Million
464000 464000 438483 474000 512000
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 7300.00
MYR Million
5900 8000 7594 9618 5000
Exports 79332.60
MYR Million
85900 80000 80624 83618 87000
Imports 72078.58
MYR Million
80000 72000 72451 74000 82000
Current Account 12865.00
MYR Million
11414 11640 12563 8252 13200
Current Account to GDP 1.30
percent
3 3 1.69 3 3.7
External Debt 883368.20
MYR Million
879921 877918 875207 872105 834564
Terms of Trade 97.70
Index Points
102 103 99.74 103 107
Tourism Revenues 82098.20
MYR Million
76000 76000 80725 76000 78300
Tourist Arrivals 2068995.00
2470000 2500000 2029700 2950000 3340000
Gold Reserves 37.63
Tonnes
40 40 37.42 42 44.5
Crude Oil Production 659.00
BBL/D/1K
665 665 666 668 667
Terrorism Index 3.33
3.74 3.74 3.07 3.74 3.57
Capital Flows 4985.50
MYR Million
-7350 -6319 -7654 -6251 -9446
Foreign Direct Investment 2763.00
MYR Million
5502 10000 8528 12500 15900
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 53.20
percent
56 56 52.97 56 53
Government Budget -3.10
percent of GDP
-4.1 -4.1 -2.89 -4.1 -3.3
Government Budget Value 10461.90
MYR Million
-6107 -3000 7619 -6400 2800
Government Spending 48025.00
MYR Million
34488 39000 35195 51100 53700
Government Revenues 58716.20
MYR Million
49627 52000 56612 55500 66000
Fiscal Expenditure 48254.30
MYR Million
55699 55633 49516 61900 63200
Military Expenditure 4295.10
USD Million
6178 6178 4352 6178 6091
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 101.50
Index Points
113 113 114 114 118
Industrial Production 2.90
percent
5.5 4.1 4.4 5.1 4.8
Industrial Production Mom 2.20
percent
2 2 0.35 3.1 1.1
Manufacturing Production 6.70
percent
6.6 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.9
Capacity Utilization 79.00
percent
83 83 76.23 75.2 85.8
Changes in Inventories 887.00
MYR Million
1044 -642 -813 -1100 -4610
Car Production 32375.00
Units
46100 46100 33069 48700 52800
Car Registrations 93726.00
96300 100500 89566 116000 146000
Leading Economic Index 1.00
percent
0.8 1 1.3 1 1.8
Internet Speed 8945.38
KBps
10693 10957 11212 11388 10567
IP Addresses 1704176.00
IP
1697598 1690039 1682479 1675161 1613363
Mining Production 0.20
percent
1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6
Manufacturing Pmi 50.50
50.8 51 51.2 50.1 51.84
Cement Production 1515.00
Thousands of Tonnes
1810 1800 1494 2010 2100
Coincident Index 132.00
Index Points
131 131 132 133 138
Competitiveness Index 5.17
Points
5.28 5.28 5.14 5.28 5.35
Competitiveness Rank 23.00
24 24 24 24 22
Ease of Doing Business 24.00
18.2 18.2 22 18.2 19
Corruption Index 49.00
Points
55 55 49 55 60
Corruption Rank 55.00
50 50 54 50 45
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 77.10
Index Points
77 80 92.28 87 103
Consumer Spending 160790.00
MYR Million
157000 159000 159953 165000 179000
Bank Lending Rate 4.61
percent
4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.9
Retail Sales Mom 4.40
percent
2.8 2.8 0.54 3.1 2.7
Retail Sales Yoy 10.00
percent
7.7 8.3 9.65 7.1 6.9
Gasoline Prices 0.59
USD/Liter
0.56 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.43
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 5.10
percent
5.8 4.9 3.55 6.2 7.7
Construction Output 7.70
percent
10.1 12.2 14.4 12 13
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Personal Income Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Sales Tax Rate 6.00
percent
6 6 6 6 6
Social Security Rate 20.00
percent
24 24 20 24 24
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
13 13 12.15 13 13
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
11 11 8.29 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 306.58
mm
237 234 218 332 261
Temperature 25.98
celsius
25.61 26.37 26.03 25.42 26.43