Malaysia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Malaysia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Malaysia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 4.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.70 3.6 3.1 2.8 3 3.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3 3.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 10560.50 10000 5900 8000 8484 5000 MYR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 53.20 54 56 56 52.05 53 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 4.08 4.2 4.16 4.11 4.07 3.6 [+]
Stock Market 1753.07 1750 1730 1710 1690 1500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.98 3.96 4 4.04 4.08 4.51 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.20 5.4 5.2 5.5 4.8 5.6 percent [+]
GDP 296.36 308 321 321 321 350 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 298575.00 302000 314000 297000 285677 340000 MYR Million [+]
Gross National Product 293.00 302 304 304 281 353 MYR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 74461.00 73300 73100 78300 75366 84000 MYR Million [+]
GDP per capita 11028.20 11493 11621 11621 11386 11658 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 25660.50 26172 26266 26360 26454 26999 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 26028.00 23500 20800 22700 23789 25100 MYR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 13838.00 14500 14900 13400 12971 18600 MYR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 68150.00 68700 66400 69200 64717 77300 MYR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 23756.00 26500 26100 26900 23777 31100 MYR Million [+]
GDP From Services 162568.00 166000 160000 160000 154165 191000 MYR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 4.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 14544.30 14698 14820 14909 14521 15500 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 515.50 524 510 510 507 511 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 67.90 67.8 67.7 67.7 67.33 67.9 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 444659.00 306000 280650 280650 291211 327000 [+]
Minimum Wages 1000.00 1000 1000 1000 1500 2000 MYR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 3392.00 3520 3600 3650 3700 4220 MYR/Month [+]
Population 31.70 32.23 32.36 32.48 32.61 33.72 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 59 60 60 59 59 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 59 60 60 59 59 [+]
Wages 2463.00 2600 2750 2750 2750 2930 MYR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.70 3.6 3.1 2.8 3 3.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 120.00 120 120 120 120 124 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 115.00 118 119 119 113 132 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 102.70 106 107 107 108 109 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 115.80 120 122 124 114 152 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.40 4.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.70 7.3 7 6.7 6.6 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 percent [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.30 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.42 2.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 112.50 112 112 113 113 116 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 117.30 118 118 118 119 118 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 116.60 116 116 117 108 123 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3 3.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.43 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 89987.11 93400 95600 95600 90133 119500 MYR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 403064.18 403443 404376 404433 404321 402967 MYR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1705135.90 1770000 1800000 1800000 1755109 2050000 MYR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1710151.95 1726424 1743047 1753205 1759261 1762191 MYR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 102390.47 100800 101200 101200 101918 106000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2479070.48 2480320 2482428 2480940 2478234 2448473 MYR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1717585.53 1730003 1747617 1762025 1773736 1805731 MYR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3.66 4 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.73 3.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 454667.56 459000 464000 464000 447203 512000 MYR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 10560.50 10000 5900 8000 8484 5000 MYR Million [+]
Exports 82412.10 79000 85900 80000 80753 87000 MYR Million [+]
Imports 71851.60 69000 80000 72000 70695 82000 MYR Million [+]
Current Account 12518.00 7197 10185 10974 11704 13200 MYR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.30 3.2 3 3 1.49 3.7 percent [+]
External Debt 873846.00 869034 864883 861243 857671 827694 MYR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 97.10 101 102 103 100 107 Index Points [+]
Tourism Revenues 82098.20 72200 76000 76000 84513 78300 MYR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2129013.00 2860000 2470000 2500000 2094200 3340000 [+]
Gold Reserves 38.26 40.1 40 40 36.93 44.5 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 659.00 680 665 665 666 667 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.33 3.68 3.74 3.74 1.73 3.57 [+]
Capital Flows 7319.00 -10922 -10628 -6480 -8321 -9897 MYR Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 11193.00 12100 12440 10000 15012 15900 MYR Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 53.20 54 56 56 52.05 53 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.10 -4.2 -4.1 -4.1 -2.73 -3.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 10461.90 -8500 -6107 -3000 7619 2800 MYR Million [+]
Government Spending 35553.00 49100 34225 39000 33870 53700 MYR Million [+]
Government Revenues 58716.20 50523 49627 52000 56612 66000 MYR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 48254.30 59022 55699 55633 49516 63200 MYR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4295.10 5885 6178 6178 4207 6091 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 114.10 112 113 113 114 118 [+]
Industrial Production 3.40 3.8 5.5 4.1 4.4 4.8 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.83 1.6 2 2 0.36 1.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.60 7 6.6 6.2 6.4 6.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.00 76.5 83 83 76.23 85.8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -2033.00 -3330 825 -460 -260 -4610 MYR Million [+]
Car Production 36632.00 47800 46100 46100 37015 52800 Units [+]
Car Registrations 101626.00 103000 96300 100500 88314 146000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.20 0.6 0.8 1 1.3 1.8 percent [+]
IP Addresses 1704176.00 1704653 1697598 1690039 1682479 1629219 IP [+]
Mining Production 5.30 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 52.00 50.5 50.8 51 51.2 51.84 [+]
Cement Production 1454.00 1890 1810 1800 1464 2100 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Coincident Index 130.60 130 131 131 130 138 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.17 5.16 5.28 5.28 5.14 5.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 23.00 25 24 24 24 22 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 24.00 18 18.2 18.2 20 19 [+]
Corruption Index 49.00 52 55 55 49 60 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 55.00 53 50 50 54 45 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 77.10 82 77 80 97.78 103 [+]
Consumer Spending 164431.00 157000 157000 159000 152286 179000 MYR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.64 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.93 4.9 percent [+]
Retail Sales Mom 1.50 3.5 2.8 2.8 0.75 2.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 10.90 8.7 7.7 8.3 10.12 6.9 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.56 0.48 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.4 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 5.60 5.1 5.8 4.9 3.42 7.7 percent [+]
Construction Output 8.10 11.5 10.1 12.2 15.11 13 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 6.00 6 6 6 6 6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24.53 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.00 13 13 13 13.14 13 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11.2 11 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 306.00 254 254 254 254 254 mm [+]
Temperature 25.00 25.15 25.15 25.15 25.15 25.15 celsius [+]