Irish Consumer Sentiment Plummets on Tariff Concerns

Ireland’s Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 56.7 in March 2026 from 65.2 in February, marking its lowest level in three years as escalating Middle East tensions weighed on economic confidence. The decline was also the biggest monthly drop since April 2025, when US tariff concerns rattled sentiment. “The fall reflects a marked decline in consumer confidence rather than a complete collapse, given the scale of the drop is broadly similar to that seen almost a year ago”, the survey's authors said. Households are becoming more cautious, particularly in spending plans, as concerns over economic fallout and rising energy costs intensify. The reading aligns with broader euro area trends, where consumer confidence fell to its lowest since late 2023. Still, the central bank raised inflation forecasts to 2.9% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027 due to energy pressures, while expecting only a modest slowdown in growth. The economy expanded by 4.9% in 2025, even as sentiment stayed subdued.

Ireland’s Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 65.2 in February 2026 from 64.7 in January, extending gains for a fourth consecutive month and reaching its highest level since March 2025. Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions edged higher, and expectations regarding unemployment also improved modestly. However, respondents turned more downbeat about their own household finances. Looking ahead, sentiment toward the year-ahead outlook was less pessimistic than in previous months. Economist Austin Hughes pointed to supportive GDP data at the end of 2025, firmer exchequer returns, and confirmation that Novo Nordisk will manufacture its weight-loss pill in Ireland for markets outside the US as positive developments. Still, Hughes cautioned that “the change was marginal and the balance of consumer thinking on the Irish economy remains strongly of the view that the Irish economy will weaken rather than strengthen in the year ahead."

Ireland’s Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 64.7 in January 2026 from 61.2 in December 2025, marking the highest reading since March 2025. It also marked the third consecutive monthly increase in consumer confidence. However, while confidence is above April’s two-year low of 58.7, the level remains well below the 74.9 recorded a year earlier and the long-term survey average of 83.5, largely due to heightened concerns over US tariffs. There were more negative than positive responses across all five survey elements, and all five were weaker than a year ago. “Irish consumers may be detecting at least tentative signs of a slowdown in living cost inflation of late,” the survey’s authors said in a statement. However, the “still downbeat tone of sentiment suggests consumers view this as some degree of easing in current pressures rather than signalling any clear gains in household spending power,” they added.