Market Reforms, Strong PMI Drive Indonesia Equity Rebound

Indonesia’s IDX Composite fell 79 points, or 1.1%, to 7,105 in the Thursday morning session, reversing the prior day’s rally as U.S. futures slumped after President Trump signaled further military strikes against Iran. In a national address, Trump framed the war as an “investment in the future” and suggested operations could conclude within a month. Locally, February’s trade surplus narrowed as exports remained subdued while imports grew at a double-digit pace. Nearly all sectors declined, dragged by industrials, infrastructure, basic materials, and energy. Still, losses were cushioned by softer inflation. Headline CPI eased to 3.48% in March, back within the central bank’s target, while core inflation also fell, pointing to weaker demand. Notable laggards included Barito Pacific (-4.1%), Vale Indonesia (-3.9%), Bumi Resources (-3.4%), and Pertamina Geothermal (-2.4%). Weekly, local markets stabilize after losses in the prior five periods. The IDX will close tomorrow for Good Friday.

Indonesia’s stock market jumped 135 points, or 1.9%, to 7,184 in early trade on the first trading day of April, rebounding from the prior session’s weakness as Wall Street’s rally overnight boosted risk appetite. Hopes of de-escalation in the Iran conflict mounted as the White House said President Trump will deliver an update on Iran in his address to the nation later today. Traders also welcomed reports that Jakarta has secured rice reserves of 4.3 million tons to guard against prolonged El Niño disruptions. However, gains were capped by caution ahead of domestic releases later today, including February trade and March inflation. Consumer prices rose 4.76% in February, marking a near three-year high above Bank Indonesia’s target, while January imports spiked ahead of the festive period. Strength was broad-based, led by cyclicals, basic materials, and industrials. Top movers included Unilever Indonesia (7.7%), Vale Indonesia (6.1%), Merdeka Copper Gold (4.5%), and Aneka Tambang (3.4%).

Indonesia’s IDX Composite edged down 17 points, or 0.2%, to 7,075 in Tuesday morning trade, marking a fourth consecutive decline as weakness in transport and financials weighed. Sentiment stayed cautious ahead of key domestic data releases, including March inflation and February trade figures. Inflation in February stood at 4.76%, a near three-year high and above Bank Indonesia’s target, while January imports surged ahead of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. Notable laggards included Perusahaan Gas Negara (-3.2%), Astra International (-2.4%), United Tractors (-2.2%), and Bank Negara Indonesia (-1.3%). For March, the market is on track for a third monthly drop, tumbling about 13.7% so far, pressured by internal and external headwinds, including escalating Middle East tensions, the rupiah weakness, and early signs of cost-push inflation, particularly in fuel-sensitive sectors like aviation. Meanwhile, equity breadth remains weak, underscoring heightened sensitivity to global developments.