Rupiah Set for Another Monthly Loss, Quarterly Drop around 5%

2026-06-30 04:54 By Farida Husna 1 min. read

The rupiah slipped toward IDR 17,900 per dollar on Tuesday, extending prior losses as the U.S.

dollar index stayed firm on expectations of further Fed tightening.

Markets largely brushed aside remarks from a Bank Indonesia senior official, who pledged to deploy all available tools to stabilise the rupiah.

Traders also paid little attention to resilient foreign inflows into government bonds and Bank Indonesia securities, totaling around USD 9 billion through end-June.

Lower oil prices, retreating toward pre-Iran conflict levels, likewise did little to support the rupiah despite easing fiscal concerns as the government trims President Prabowo's flagship programs.

Focus turned to local data due later this week, where May’s annual inflation accelerated, edging near the upper end of the central bank's target.

On the trade front, April’s surplus notched its smallest since 2020, reducing export support.

The rupiah is set to continue its recent monthly drop, with a quarterly fall of around 5%.



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Rupiah Set for Another Monthly Loss, Quarterly Drop around 5%
The rupiah slipped toward IDR 17,900 per dollar on Tuesday, extending prior losses as the U.S. dollar index stayed firm on expectations of further Fed tightening. Markets largely brushed aside remarks from a Bank Indonesia senior official, who pledged to deploy all available tools to stabilise the rupiah. Traders also paid little attention to resilient foreign inflows into government bonds and Bank Indonesia securities, totaling around USD 9 billion through end-June. Lower oil prices, retreating toward pre-Iran conflict levels, likewise did little to support the rupiah despite easing fiscal concerns as the government trims President Prabowo's flagship programs. Focus turned to local data due later this week, where May’s annual inflation accelerated, edging near the upper end of the central bank's target. On the trade front, April’s surplus notched its smallest since 2020, reducing export support. The rupiah is set to continue its recent monthly drop, with a quarterly fall of around 5%.
2026-06-30
Rupiah Weakens Amid Firm Dollar, Domestic Risks
The rupiah edged lower toward IDR 17,860 per U.S. dollar on Monday after briefly strengthening below IDR 17,810, pressured by broad dollar strength ahead of the monthly U.S. jobs report later this week. Locally, focus is shifting to June inflation after headline figures quickened to 3.08% in May, nearing the upper end of Bank Indonesia’s 1-1/2%–3-1/2% target range on rising food and energy costs. Support from exports has waned, with April’s trade surplus narrowing to its smallest since 2020. Meanwhile, concerns over governance and transparency persisted after the government included a controversial provision in new legislation granting blanket legal immunity for purchases of bonds issued by state investment fund Danantara. Still, losses were cushioned by a scaled-back version of President Prabowo’s flagship spending program, underscoring fiscal discipline. Simultaneously, manufacturing activity in May stabilized following a brief contraction, and bank lending stayed resilient.
2026-06-29
Rupiah Set for Weekly Decline
The Indonesian rupiah traded near IDR 17,950 per U.S. dollar on Friday, extending its drop as broad-based dollar strength persisted after the Fed reinforced its hawkish stance despite keeping interest rates unchanged last week. Locally, sentiment weakened after the government included a controversial provision in new legislation granting blanket legal immunity to buy bonds issued by state investment fund Danantara. The clause shields such transactions from criminal, civil, and tax investigations while preventing bond records from being used as evidence in court or tax assessments, raising concerns over governance and transparency. Nerves also emerged ahead of June CPI data, with food costs in focus after May’s fastest annual rise in seven months. The currency has fallen about 1% this week, erasing gains from the prior two periods, though losses were capped by news that Jakarta may trim more than USD 2 billion from President Prabowo’s flagship program to reinforce fiscal discipline.
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