Rupiah Weakness Persists Near Record Low

2026-04-16 05:37 By Farida Husna 1 min. read

The Indonesian rupiah remained near a record low of IDR 17,130 per dollar on Thursday, even as the U.S.

dollar index hovered near a six-week low amid hopes for a Middle East truce.

The local currency faced pressure from multiple headwinds, including elevated oil prices, persistent capital outflows, fragile domestic fundamentals, and seasonal dividend repatriation.

These factors are likely to keep the central bank active in the market, potentially further straining forex reserves, which already fell to a near two-year low in March.

Meanwhile, the IMF cut Indonesia’s 2026 growth forecast to 5.0% from 5.1%, citing global uncertainty.

Inflation risks are tilted to the upside, driven by volatile energy prices and rising fiscal burdens linked to several key programs, despite March CPI within the central bank’s target.

Bank Indonesia is set to hold a policy meeting next week after leaving rates unchanged in March for a sixth straight time, following a total of 150bp cuts since September 2024.



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Rupiah Weakness Persists Near Record Low
The Indonesian rupiah remained near a record low of IDR 17,130 per dollar on Thursday, even as the U.S. dollar index hovered near a six-week low amid hopes for a Middle East truce. The local currency faced pressure from multiple headwinds, including elevated oil prices, persistent capital outflows, fragile domestic fundamentals, and seasonal dividend repatriation. These factors are likely to keep the central bank active in the market, potentially further straining forex reserves, which already fell to a near two-year low in March. Meanwhile, the IMF cut Indonesia’s 2026 growth forecast to 5.0% from 5.1%, citing global uncertainty. Inflation risks are tilted to the upside, driven by volatile energy prices and rising fiscal burdens linked to several key programs, despite March CPI within the central bank’s target. Bank Indonesia is set to hold a policy meeting next week after leaving rates unchanged in March for a sixth straight time, following a total of 150bp cuts since September 2024.
2026-04-16
Rupiah Lingers Near Historic Low
The Indonesian rupiah hovered near a record low of IDR 17,130 per dollar on Wednesday, even as the U.S. dollar index remained at a six-week low amid easing safe-haven demand on hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. Weakness in local currency reflected persistent capital outflows and fragile domestic fundamentals, keeping sentiment subdued ahead of next week’s monetary policy meeting. In March, Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate at 4.75% for a sixth straight meeting, following a cumulative 150bp of reduction since September 2024. While current inflation remained within the central bank’s target range, risks are tilted to the upside due to volatile oil prices and rising fiscal pressures linked to President Prabowo’s key programs. Policymakers have signaled limited room for further easing, with Governor Perry Warjiyo stressing a shift toward safeguarding stability through measured and consistent intervention in both spot and non-deliverable forward markets.
2026-04-15
Rupiah Struggles as Domestic Pressures Outweigh Softer Dollar
The Indonesian rupiah held above IDR 17,110 per dollar on Tuesday, hovering near record lows despite a weaker U.S. dollar index, as capital outflows and concerns over weakening fundamentals, such as declining foreign reserves in March, continued to weigh on sentiment. Hopes for a potential U.S.–Iran deal offered little relief, underscoring domestic pressures. The weak rupiah is fueling imported inflation, particularly in manufacturing and transport. While March inflation stayed within Bank Indonesia’s target of around 1-1/2% to 3-1/2%, risks are tilted upward amid volatile oil prices and rising fiscal demands from President Prabowo’s programs. Focus now shifts to next week’s policy meeting, after BI left rates unchanged at 4.75% in March for a sixth straight time, following a total 150bp of cuts since September 2024. Recently, officials signaled limited room for further easing, with Governor Warjiyo stressing a pivot toward safeguarding stability and resilience against external shocks.
2026-04-14