Rupiah Opens 2026 Lower Amid Rate-Cut Bets

The Indonesian rupiah weakened to a fresh record low of around IDR 18,020 per U.S. dollar on Thursday, remaining under pressure as the dollar index held near a two-month high, with stronger-than-expected US labor market data reinforcing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Domestic risks compounded the weakness, with investors wary of Indonesia’s fiscal situation and speculation over a sovereign rating downgrade. Capital outflows deepened after eight local stocks were cut from the FTSE Russell index, adding to MSCI-related pressures. Meanwhile, rising oil and gas import costs eroded the trade surplus in April, while foreign reserves fell to a near two-year low in April, as Bank Indonesia stepped up intervention. The drawdown has heightened concerns over external buffers and credit risks after Fitch and Moody’s outlook revisions earlier this year. The rupiah has lost about 7.2% against the dollar year-to-date, ranking among the weakest emerging-market currencies.

The Indonesian rupiah slipped toward IDR 17,930 per U.S. dollar on Wednesday, extending prior weakness and moving closer to the 18,000 mark as a firm greenback and heightened Middle East tensions boosted demand for haven assets. Meanwhile, domestic fundamentals offered little cushion, with April's trade surplus narrowing to its lowest since 2020, reducing support from export inflows. Market caution persisted despite government measures to bolster dollar liquidity via a new state-owned commodity trading firm and tighter retention rules for exporters. Reports of local banks quoting above 18,000 underscored ongoing pressure. Meanwhile, annual inflation accelerated to 3.08% in May from 2.42% in April, driven by food and transport costs. Risks remain from global energy prices and El Niño-related disruptions. Analysts expect Bank Indonesia to keep balancing rupiah stability against growth worries after its May 50bp rate hike, with imported inflation risks still significant.

The Indonesian rupiah edged lower to around IDR 17,840 per U.S. dollar on Tuesday after holding steady over the prior two sessions, weighed by broad dollar strength and cautious sentiment amid developments in the Middle East. Locally, fresh data showed Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed more than expected in April to its lowest level in six years, as imports slightly outpaced exports, eroding support from external balances. Persistent fiscal strains and capital outflows continued to pressure the currency despite Bank Indonesia's mid-May rate hikes and other stabilisation measures. Concerns also emerged over stricter forex-retention rules for exporters, even as the government argued that a new state-owned commodity trading firm could help lift fiscal revenues and bolster dollar liquidity. Meanwhile, headline inflation accelerated in May as higher energy costs from geopolitical tensions fed into domestic prices, though it remained within Bank Indonesia’s 1-1/2–3-1/2% target range.