Rupiah Opens 2026 Lower Amid Rate-Cut Bets

The Indonesian rupiah remained under pressure, hovering around IDR 18,170 per U.S. dollar on Wednesday and approaching its July record low of IDR 12,820. A firm dollar index ahead of the Fed’s rate decision weighed on the currency, alongside concerns over potential foreign fund outflows amid uncertainty about Indonesia’s MSCI status. Fiscal worries added to the strain as the government considers free education through university, potentially stretching the budget alongside other costly commitments. External risks persisted despite a recent trade surplus, with elevated imports and energy costs leaving the economy vulnerable to Middle East tensions. Annual inflation accelerated to 3.28% in September, a three-month high, amid food-price pressures linked to El Niño. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia said the rupiah’s movements were in line with regional peers and reaffirmed its market interventions to aid the currency. Traders now eye next week’s trade data and inflation figures for fresh signals.

The Indonesian rupiah remained above IDR 18,100 per U.S. dollar on Tuesday, hovering near its weakest level since late July as the dollar stayed firm ahead of the Fed’s upcoming policy decision. Locally, fiscal concerns added to pressure amid elevated oil prices and the government’s proposal to make education free from primary school through university, potentially adding to budget strains from free school meals and other costly commitments. Inflation risks also mounted, as September figures accelerated to a three-month high of 3.28%, reflecting rising food prices linked to El Niño. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti said the central bank would maintain its intervention strategy despite heightened volatility amid escalating Middle East tensions. She added that BI stayed active in the market, describing recent currency movements as part of normal market dynamics. A central bank official also said rupiah fluctuations remained manageable and within BI’s tolerance limits.

The Indonesian rupiah weakened past IDR 18,100 per U.S. dollar on Monday, falling for a fourth straight session and hitting its lowest level since late July. Domestic pressures continued to weigh on sentiment, with oil prices above USD 100 per barrel raising concerns over fiscal strain given Indonesia’s status as a net oil importer. Inflationary risks also persisted amid rising food prices linked to El Niño. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia’s latest policy adjustments drew criticism from some market participants for their complexity, as the central bank held its benchmark rate unchanged while raising the deposit facility rate and cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). BI officials stressed that the measures were intended to align interest rates with monetary operations following the government’s placement of funds in commercial banks. The rupiah’s decline came despite a further pullback in the U.S. dollar index, with traders cautiously awaiting the Fed’s policy decision later this week.