Urals Oil Prices Lowest Since October

Urals crude has been trading between $61 and $65 per barrel since August, compared with $65–69 for Brent. China remains the largest buyer of Russian crude, while Russia continues to be India’s top supplier. In response to India’s purchases, US President Trump launched a pressure campaign, warning that cutting imports would help push Moscow to end the conflict. After New Delhi refused, Washington imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports, effective August 27. Despite the move, India has maintained its buying. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks in September disrupted Russian exports and raised risks of production cuts, forcing Moscow to redirect shipments to other western ports. New restrictions on sanctioned tankers have further complicated Russian flows. In July, the EU and UK imposed additional measures, introducing a floating price cap set at 15% below the average market price—currently around $47.60 per barrel—well below the G7’s $60 cap established in December 2022.

Urals crude has been trading between $61 and $65 per barrel since August, compared with $65–69 for Brent, narrowing the discount to its smallest since the war in Ukraine began in 2022. China remains the largest buyer of Russian crude, while Russia has continued to serve as India’s top supplier. In response to India’s purchases, US President Trump launched a pressure campaign, arguing that cutting imports would push Moscow to end the conflict. After New Delhi refused, Washington followed through with its threat, imposing a 50% tariff on Indian imports effective August 27. The G7 introduced a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian crude in 2022, and the EU along with several G7 partners—though not the US—will lower the threshold to $46.50, despite lingering doubts over its effectiveness. Since the cap took effect in December 2022, Urals crude has traded above $60 on roughly 75% of trading days, supported largely by shipments through so-called “dark fleets,” according to Reuters.

Russian Urals crude oil prices continued their decline, falling to $65.5 per barrel, the lowest level since late October, tracking weak global oil prices amid tariff uncertainties and slowing economic growth. At the same time, new US sanctions introduced in January are adding pressure, alongside steeper discounts aimed at maintaining sales, and higher transportation costs. On January 10, outgoing US President Joe Biden imposed the strictest Western sanctions on Russia’s oil industry since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The measures targeted over 180 oil-carrying vessels suspected of being part of Russia’s "shadow fleet" used to evade sanctions, along with traders, oil field service firms, and Russian energy officials. While tankers continue to load Russian crude, many are struggling to deliver shipments as buyers avoid supply chains affected by US sanctions.