UK Natgas Prices Advance on Middle East Uncertainty

UK natural gas prices rose to 186 pence per therm Thursday, recovering from a three-week low amid uncertainty over a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran would never surrender to the US but remained open to dialogue and diplomacy, while setting conditions for a return to negotiations. The key waterway remains largely closed, impeding LNG flows from the Persian Gulf. Europe’s gas storage position remains a key concern as the winter heating season approaches. Storage facilities are around 70% full, still below the five-year seasonal average and the region’s 80% target. Goldman Sachs expects European and Asian gas prices to rise sharply if Gulf LNG exports remain constrained.

UK natural gas prices dropped below 180 pence per therm on Wednesday, their lowest level since September 4th, as renewed US-Iran talks revived hopes for a diplomatic resolution. President Donald Trump said US officials had a very good meeting with Iranian representatives on the sidelines of the UN gathering, though no further details were provided. Tehran also reportedly signaled a willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases military pressure and lifts its blockade. Rising numbers of LNG tankers and crude carriers using alternative routes have also alleviated some supply concerns. However, uncertainty surrounding the conflict and the outlook for energy transportation remains. Europe’s gas storage facilities are around 69% full, well below the 85% five-year seasonal average, leaving the market vulnerable ahead of the winter heating season.

UK natural gas prices fell below 178 pence per therm, the lowest in three weeks, after reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifted its blockade of Iranian ports. Japan’s Kyodo News reported that Tehran had proposed reopening the waterway within seven days, potentially providing a basis for diplomatic discussions at the UN General Assembly. President Donald Trump is due to address the assembly and may meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Meanwhile, reports of increasing numbers of LNG tankers and crude carriers finding alternative routes out of the Gulf have also helped ease supply concerns. Still, supply risks remain elevated, with Europe's gas storage levels remaining below the seasonal average at a time when they would typically be close to maximum capacity. Also, Norwegian gas exports remained constrained by maintenance.