Rubber Futures See Upward Pressure

Rubber futures climbed to around 249 US cents per kilogram in September, hitting their highest level since 2013, supported by signs of tightening supplies. Indonesia’s natural rubber exports declined 21% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026, according to Qinrex, raising concerns over tighter supply from one of the world’s leading producers. El Niño, ongoing haze, and forest fires are expected to further constrain Indonesian rubber output in the coming months. In Thailand, heavier rainfall is expected through mid-September, which could further disrupt tapping activity and reduce latex collection. Meanwhile, the end of Southeast Asia’s peak tapping season in September is expected to further tighten regional supplies. Adding to the upward pressure, crude oil prices continued to surge amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, raising production costs for synthetic rubber and making natural rubber relatively more attractive as a substitute.

Rubber futures traded around 230 US cents per kilogram, in likely profit-taking after reaching their highest level since 2013. The recent surge was driven by concerns over supply risks, which remained elevated amid intermittent rainfall in Thailand, the world’s largest natural-rubber producer, disrupting tapping activity, while the end of Southeast Asia’s peak tapping season in September is expected to further reduce supplies. The outlook for a strengthening El Niño in Q4 has also raised concerns over rubber supply, as hotter and drier conditions could reduce latex yields across major Southeast Asian producing regions. ANRPC data also showed that consumption is forecast to reach 15.36 million tons, marginally exceeding projected production of 15.28 million tons. Meanwhile, higher vehicle inventories among Chinese dealers pointed to softer demand for tires, capping gains.

Rubber futures traded around 240 US cents per kilogram, holding close to their highest level since 2013, as the natural rubber market is expected to remain slightly undersupplied for the rest of the year. ANRPC data showed that consumption is forecast to reach 15.36 million tons, marginally exceeding projected production of 15.28 million tons. This comes amid ongoing supply risks, with intermittent rainfall in Thailand, the world’s largest natural-rubber producer, disrupting tapping activity, while the end of Southeast Asia’s peak tapping season in September is expected to further reduce supplies. The outlook for a strengthening El Niño in Q4 has also raised concerns over rubber supply, as hotter and drier conditions could reduce latex yields across major Southeast Asian producing regions. Meanwhile, higher vehicle inventories among Chinese dealers pointed to softer demand for tires, capping gains.